Does Bashar Want Peace?

Michael Young writes a fine and disparaging article about the Syrian-backed demonstration in favor of Syria in downtown Beirut, "Telling Syria: Thanks a hundred thousand," in the Daily Star. He ends it by writing: "The Lebanese-Syrian relationship probably cannot transcend subservience to reach collaborative neighborliness. But the worst thing is that few Lebanese have the courage to tell their brethren in Damascus that the gimmicks of Syrian power are separating Lebanon from Syria perhaps irreversibly."

Elsewhere, Young has written that the Lebanese opposition to the Syrian occupation will have to unify before it can be effective.

Nicholas Blanford of the Christian Scientist Monitor quotes a number of analysts - including yours truly and al-Hayat's Ibrahim al-Hamidi - who explain why they think Syria is serious about peace with Israel.

Bashar said to have contemplated going to Jerusalem Last Year
Israel on Wednesday acknowledged that secret contacts between it and Syria were held early last year.

Syria, meanwhile, denied an Israeli media report that President Bashar Assad signaled he was ready to visit Jerusalem last year and address its parliament in a pitch for peace. "It goes without saying that this is completely baseless," a Foreign Ministry official said of the report published in the Maariv daily.

But Israeli Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom acknowledged Wednesday the Israeli government had held secret contacts with Syria last year, including with relatives of Assad, but said that they had been broken off after leaks to the press. Quoting unnamed Israeli officials, the Maariv daily said Assad signaled he was ready to come to Jerusalem in a move to revive peace talks - suspended in 2000 - but that the gesture was thwarted by Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's office.

Asked about the Maariv report, Shalom did not comment on whether Assad had requested to visit Jerusalem, but insisted contacts held a year and a half ago had been only "preliminary."

Roger Hardy of the BBC explains that there was never much chance President Bashar al-Assad would accept the Israeli invitation to Jerusalem. He doesn't want to be Sadat and Washington is not urging him to go as it did Sadat and doesn't seem any more interested than Sharon in drawing the Syrian's out. As Hardy writes: "President Bush, like Prime Minister Sharon, seems more interested in punishing President Assad than rewarding him."

Israel is Better off with Syrian Forces in Lebanon
An Israeli government report concluded Syria's troop deployment in Lebanon is in Israel's best interest, Israeli military radio reported Wednesday.

Israeli National Security Council chief Giora Eiland warned in the report, commissioned by Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, that Syria's withdrawal from Lebanon would only serve to strengthen Hizbullah.

The report's conclusion is in stark contrast to the Israeli government's public stance, which has consistently demanded that Syria withdraw its 14,000 troops from Lebanon and halt its backing of Hizbullah.

Tel Aviv has insisted it will not resume peace negotiations with Syria until both demands are met. Israeli military radio said officials from Sharon's office indicated he found the report's recommendations unacceptable.

Beirut-based political analyst Simon Haddad said the report's recommendation made "no sense. ... Even if Syria withdraws its troops, it will retain control over Lebanon and will retain its relations with Hizbullah." Haddad added that he believed the report was aimed at destabilizing the national entente in Lebanon.

He said it might also be to show that Israel has no interests in promoting UN Security Council Resolution 1559. Adopted on Sept.2, the resolution calls for the withdrawal of foreign troops from Lebanon and for the disarmament of Lebanese and foreign militias.

But political analyst Nawaf Kabbara said, "If Syria withdraws, Lebanon will be faced with the following situation: a weak government and a strong military power in Hizbullah which will definitely grow stronger and more powerful." He added that internal opposition to Hizbullah would also grow, possibly with the help of outside backing, creating a situation which would destablize Lebanon. "Our situation is not easy," he added, "the Syrian presence is indispensable despite its inconveniences."

He added that Hizbullah's raison d'etre will not cease with Syria's withdrawal. "Its goal, at the present, is not limited to freeing the Golan Heights. It is a regional organization and as long as there is a regional justification for its existence, it will continue." What, then, would be the solution? "Going back to the negotiations table," as Syrian President Bashar Assad seems to be doing, according to Kabbara.

Sharon rejects talks with Syria Again: Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has said he will not revive peace talks with Syria as long as Palestinian militant groups operate in Damascus.
Mr Sharon said that President Bashar Assad had not taken "the smallest step" against Palestinian militants based in the Syrian capital. Syria, which had recently suggested renewed negotiations, rejected the Israeli conditions as "unacceptable". Hamas and Islamic Jihad both have headquarters in Damascus.