The Syrian Scene - According to Hamidi and Western Diplomats

I spoke with Ibrahim al-Hamidi on February 7 about a number of topics that are occupying Syrians these days. Hamidi is the al-Hayat bureau chief in Damascus and one of the best connected and smartest analysts of the region.

The Iraqi Boarder: I asked him what Syrian policy is toward Iraq and whether he believes the government is actively taking part in organizing the Iraqi resistance as American officials claim. He said that Bashar and the government are serious about working with the Americans and are now looking for ways to comply with American demands. They are ready to step up surveillance of the border and do what they can to stop infiltration.

The problem comes with implementation. Like all things here, the gap between intentions and implementation is large. “Bashar is trying to work through institutions,” Hamidi said. He asks the heads of Syria’s institutions to work with the Americans and shut down infiltration and dissuade Iraqis in Syria from using it as a base. As orders get passed down the ranks they become diluted. Corruption plays its part. Anyone with several thousand dollars can hope to find guards willing to turn a blind eye to an illegal or unorthodox crossing.

Perhaps the biggest problem is that Syrians are angry with America and don’t like the occupation one bit. Thus, there are many cogs within the bureaucratic machinery that don’t always turn in sync with the President’s wishes.

Furthermore, the President himself cannot take as firm a stand in support of the Americans as he would like. Because popular opinion is so anti-American and because he came out so resolutely in opposition to the American invasion and occupation at the beginning of the war, it is dangerous for him to reverse course with equal resolution. It makes him look weak. It contradicts his earlier stand. And it is not at all popular. Thus, there is a lot of slippage. Officials don’t follow orders, in part, because the orders are muddled.

The rise of Islamism: Hamidi is working on a new article on the size and number of religious organizations in Syria. It will be based on his previous Daily Star article copied in my last post, but this time in Arabic and for al-Hayat. He said the reaction to the last article was heavy. He had gotten many calls from foreign officials wanting to know more. Most inquiries were made by Syrian officials, however, wanting more statistics and details about the scope and politics of the various groups that have been growing in Syria. Like everyone else here, Hamidi sees a noticeable increase in Islamic organizations and piety among Syrians. His al-Hayat article should appear in several days.

The Regional Baath Party Congress: Several analysts at foreign embassies here are now writing up reports in which they must speculate whether the Regional Baath Party congress, which is supposed to meet sometime this summer, will announce important changes to the party and its philosophy.

When I asked Ibrahim if he thought real changes to the party were going to be announced, he was skeptical. “It doesn’t look promising,” he said. There were a number of delays before the last congress met indicating that factionalism within the Party is still rife. Four major reports were issued by the last meeting of the Party on (1) Arab nationalism and unity, (2) socialism (3) freedom and democracy (4) The reorganization of the party (whether it would continue to hold its political monopoly over the state). All turned out to be conservative and uninteresting. This indicates, according to Hamidi, that the old guard in the Party continues to dominate and has successfully thwarted the more radical message and criticism of the reformers. He believes a number of issues about procedure, party elections, and institutional change must be addressed before the reformist message will be heard in full. He was not sure the Party would be able to solve its factional problems in time to hold a meeting this summer. In other words, thumbs down to the prospect of radical party change. Many are hoping that the Baath will permit the creation of independent parties, dilute or eliminate the constitutional clauses mandating socialism, and open the door for an identity remake, i.e. a move away from Arabism toward a more formal recognition of some sort of Syrian identity.

I also spoke to Andrew Tabler of "Syria Today" and a diplomat in the German Embassy about what they anticipated from the Party meeting. They were a little more up-beat than Hamidi. Tabler said that the Minister of State for Planning Affairs, Abdullah Dardari, is counting on changes to the Party's stand on socialism so that his five year National Indicative Plan can move forward without contradicting the Baath constitution. Dardari promised to begin a real national discussion before the issuance of his five year plan by publishing the results of economic forecasts that his office has been doing. Evidently they will show how badly the Syrian economy will do in the coming years if important reforms are not enacted. This discussion has not begun, however, in part because the Baath Party has been dragging its feet on changes. Tabler said pressure from the United States and Europe to get reforms underway may help break the Party deadlock. He thinks that we could see a move to legalize political parties other than the officially recognized Progressive Front. The cost of doing nothing is too high due to internal and external pressures alike.

Lebanon: Syria is still looking for a deal, according to Hamidi. He has met with Walid Mu`alim several times since Mu`alim took over the Lebanon portfolio. The language of Syrian officials remains that they will respect 1559 if other UN resolutions, such as 242 and those concerning the Golan, are also respected. Bashar wants to trade. The question is whether the US is willing to cut a deal with Syria. Hamidi is doubtful it will. Every indication so far is that the US has taken an ideological stand on Syria and will not budge and will not trade. Nevertheless, Syrian officials are working on the Iraqi border with increased seriousness, Hamidi suggests, in the hopes of creating the right environment for deal making and to reach out to the US.

When I asked him what leverage America has with Syria should Damascus not move quickly enough for Washington, Hamidi shrugged his shoulders. “Not much in the short term,” he said. Syria is not isolated. One of Bashar’s great strengths is that he has built good relations with most of his neighbors and many European countries, so it will be hard for the US to trap Syria in an economic stranglehold as it did Iraq. All the same, “in the long term, considering that Syria is under growing economic pressure from shrinking oil production and growing unemployment, Damascus does not want to fight with Washington.” It does not want to risk perpetual economic sanctions and hostility from the US. Sure, Syria can go to Russia and China in search of trade and possible arms to counter-balance US pressure, but no one in Syria sees such a strategy as a replacement for good relations with the West.

I have asked the same question of several diplomats here. The British Deputy Chief of Mission, Roddy Drummond, said his ambassador has been asking the Americans what their plan is for the coming months. After all, the British, like the French, have committed themselves to 1559 and hitched themselves to the American wagon in Lebanon. They quite rightly want to know what they have gotten themselves into and have a peek at plans going forward. Drummond complained that the Brits never got a clear answer from their American friends on this question. The suggestion is that the Americans are flying by the seat of their pants with 1559. One can only suppose that the US position will depend on the Lebanese opposition and how effective and unified it remains. If the opposition continues to gain muscle and numbers, then the US strategy may continue to gain momentum, and the Syrians may be forced to continue making concessions and moving their troops. One gets the distinct sense that the other European ambassadors here wish the Americans were willing to cut a deal with Syria and throw the Golan into the mix so that all the border questions plaguing the region could be resolved once and for all. The Lebanese opposition alone is a weak reed on which to build a policy.

Karl Schramek, the Austrian Ambassador in Damascus and a keen observer of the political scene here, expressed the broader EU concern that Washington has gotten itself into an ideological straight-jacket on the Syrian question and won’t have the flexibility to take advantage of the opportunities for deal making that many feel are now available to the West.

According to Hamidi, Mu`alim insists that Syria genuinely wants to rebuild its relations with Lebanon on a sound institutional basis and move away from the relations of the past, which grew out of the war.

If the US doesn’t offer Syria any carrots for Lebanon, Hamidi said, then Syria will play rope-a-dope. It will never say no to the UN and America, but will delay, linger, and wait. America’s demands are contradictory, Hamidi pointed out. On the one hand Washington insists that Syria pull its troops out of Lebanon, and on the other, it wants Syria to disarm Hizballah. Syria will give an inch here or there, in order to roll with the punches, but it won’t throw in the towel on Lebanon, without a number of assurances from Washington.

Hamidi can not imagine that the US will resort to force in Lebanon or Syria. Some American officials have called for punitive bombings, either of Hizballah or within Syria itself, if Syria does not get with the US anti-terrorism program. Hamidi said that any use of force by the US could easily swing public opinion in Lebanon back into Syria’s favor. Syria over-reached when it imposed Lahoud on Lebanon for a second term, setting off events that led to the formation of a real opposition in Lebanon and the issuance of 1559. If America pushes back too hard, public opinion in Lebanon could just as easily rebound against America. Jumblatt has been as violently anti-American in the past as he is anti-Syrian today, Hamidi pointed out. By bombing Hizballah, or even Syria, Washington could cause him to reverse course yet again. If America pushes too hard, the Lebanese opposition will splinter.

Democracy and the Iraqi Elections: I asked Hamidi if he sensed a spill-over effect from the elections in Iraq. Does watching Iraqis vote give Syrians the democracy bug? “The elections will surely have an effect in the long run,” he insisted, but added an important caveat, “that is if things go well in Iraq.” Right now, he explained, “Syrians do not look at the Iraqi example as something they want to follow.” The instability in Iraq has been frightening for Syrians. “At least here, you can go to the store and go to your work in peace.” Life is very quite and Syria is one of the safest places in the region. (Every taxi driver in Syria will tell you, with considerable pride, that the UN named Syria the third safest country in the world several months ago.)

In the 1970s and 1980s, Syrians were frightened of the Lebanon disease, which threatened confessional hatred and civil war. Hafiz al-Asad offered Syrians stability, and they were, for the most part, grateful. “Today,” Hamidi said, “Syrians are frightened of the Iraqi disease. The Kurdish riots last spring followed by the Mezze bombing several months later made people nervous that the instability in Iraq was washing over the border.”

As my sister-in-law said to me when I asked her the Iraq-example question, “What is the alternative to Bashar? Iraq?! “No thank you. We see many people being killed there every day.” Then she insisted, “You can’t compare Syria to Iraq. Bashar is not like Saddam. We are more or less free to say what we want and to live our lives peacefully. Yes, there are red lines we must observe, but we are used to them, and anyway, how many people do they affect?” She answered her own question: “I don’t think very many.” Asking the Iraq question to Syrians invariably pricks at their considerable national pride.

When I asked the taxi driver who took me to Ibrahim’s handsome 9th floor office in Mezze what he thought of the elections in Iraq, he answered, “What do we care about politics? We accept the rulers who come over us. What concerns me is feeding the children and keeping the wife happy. This is hard enough.” Then he looked at me with a mischievous grin on his face and added: “The Americans, didn’t they invent that pill that helps old men like me keep my wife happy?” While we were both searching for the name of the magic blue pill, my driver added, “Why can’t America bring us more of those pills? That would be a good thing. It would please my wife.” By the time he had finished laughing, we had arrived at Tala Tower.

If the Iraqi democracy is to become America’s answer to Viagra in the realm of foreign policy, Syrians will first have to see Iraqis doing well, feeding their children, and keeping their wives happy.