Thoughts on the Current Situation from a Grassroots Republican Activist
Here are Some thoughts on the current situation: by a friend who describes himself as a "grassroots Republican activist"
“Introduce new products?”
Does anyone in America really care about Syria? Foreign-policy nerds like me and anyone else reading this certainly do, but we may have lost perspective.
Let me explain. The other day, I was renting a car from a 3rd or 4th generation American of European descent. Typical American citizen. In conversation, he asked me about my origin, I told him that my family originally came from Syria. He then asked, "now where is Syria again?" answer: "between Iraq and the Mediterranean Sea." 2nd question: "and they're on our side, right?" This lack of knowledge is typical.
That is why Andy Card (Bush's Chief-of-Staff and a very clever guy) warns about when you should "introduce new products."
It took daily front-page coverage for months and months for Americans to learn 3 new words: “Shiite, Sunni, Kurd”. And that was after a decade plus of vilification of Saddam Hussein. I don't see the stakes being high enough for us to learn en masse the new vocabulary of "Alawi, Shawkat, Kanaan", especially when the right-track, wrong-track number is well below 50, people are planning to stay home for Thanksgiving because gas is too expensive, and congressional Republicans are running a bit scared because the Democrats think they can make 2006 their version of 1994 (though the Dems still have no cohesive message so they will probably fail.)
Plus, it will be difficult to sufficiently vilify Bashar al-Assad. War hawks and their media allies can try all they like, but at the end of the day, the average American is going to spend about 30 seconds thinking about him, and figure: “Well, the guy speaks English so he can’t be evil. He smiles. He’s tall, dark, and handsome (don’t laugh, I have heard women with no political stake in the matter say this). He’s got lovely kids from a beautiful wife who speaks with a British accent so therefore she’s intelligent so therefore she couldn’t have married a mad tyrant, so he must be okay.” If that seems overly superficial, that’s because it is. The average American doesn’t have enough at stake to spend mental energy actively hating Bashar al-Assad, or even remember who he is.
I would bet that Rice and whoever else is driving the policy at this point have figured this out and combined with all of the other obvious reasons (new Euro honeymoon, bad taste from neo-con Iraq style, etc.) they will continue to work this through diplomatic pressure. Syria will likely not be introduced as a “new product”.
Congress
Rice can steer the actual policy, but frankly I’m surprised that Congress hasn’t taken matters into its own hands as they did with the Syria Accountability Act. After the Hariri assassination there was a flurry of anti-Syria bills and resolutions put forth. I expected to see a whole new batch post Mehlis, but there was only one, on October 25, on which no real action has been taken. It basically demanded that Syria cooperate with Mehlis in Stage 2, however the first article read: “(1) condemns the Government of Syria for its apparent involvement in the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri”. So much for innocent until proven guilty. Interestingly, though, the 6th clause mentioned an “international tribunal”. (see www.house.gov)
The usual congressional spearheads of the anti-Syria movement, Elliot Engel and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, did not co-sponsor this piece of legislation. Coincidentally (or not), last year, these 2 in particular raised a significant amount of money from Lebanese Americans with an axe to grind against Syria. So far this election cycle, no cash from those individuals. However, each seems to have found a new supporter: Farid Ghadry, whose family has donated $6,000 this year (just go to www.fec.gov and type in his or any other name). “Want more Bashar-bashing in the House, Farid? Show me the money!” they will say.
“Mwarne and Likudim sitting in a tree”
Sounds like a bad remix of an even worse one-hit wonder from the 80s. For now, the “brave and courageous Lebanese people” as Ms. Rice refers to them, are everybody’s heroes. Just wait. The more Lebanon asserts itself as self-governing and sovereign, the less they can blame their ills on Syria. Again, what’s the endgame here? Has anyone thought that far ahead? It’s only a matter of time until AIPAC and their allies exploit this. I wouldn’t be the slightest bit surprised if they begin pushing to have Lebanon added to the “State Sponsors of Terrorism” list. After all, Hezbollah is now fully integrated into the Lebanese political system – it has more MPs than ever plus a cabinet position for the first time. The Likudniks may see the Maronites as cute little clean-shaven Arabs that they can deal with, but they’re not that cute. They’ll get sold right down the Litani River.
Israel & Regime Change
As for the true Israeli position on the Baath regime, any serious debate in Israel will likely yield the conclusion that the status quo is just fine. Despite a technical state of war with Syria, there have been just a handful of military incidents on the border in several decades. I doubt my Israeli friends employed at banks and consultancies in Tel Aviv would relish taking time away from work for reserve duty in the Golan should uncertainty develop in Damascus. Any regime change talk coming from Israel is just hot air.
Elections
Food for thought: yesterday was Election Day here in the US. I happened to be working the polls in a very economically depressed urban area. Turnout was low. One of the local residents said to me, “People don’t vote here. They don’t care. They don’t want things to change. Because if things did change for the better, they wouldn’t be able to cry and complain anymore.”
19 Comments:
Mr Freind -
I know exactly how this feels - regarding the introduction of Syria to a car renting agency. I was recently, as I live on a college campus, stocking up on my beer. When the clerk asked me for my ID, he reads my name and goes, "Armenian" wow, you know Iam from Lebanon, grew up there and all my life knew Armenians. They are such great people, nice, humble, and such hard workers. Now tell me, do the Armenians have their own country?"
Me: Still trying to pick my jaw off from the ground - yea, its right in your neighborhood, between Turkey and Azerbijian, Iran.
Him: "Ohhh, ok, sounds good, that will be 12 dollars"
Also in my Arabic class, a American born and raised Syrian mentioned his family was from Damascus. When I mentioned that my father was born in Aleppo, he said, thats in Jordan right
So introducing new products such as Alawi, Syria, etc... could be far more impossible, and a long hill climb.
what typical crock... and you posted this, why?! is this some device of self-reassurance, or is it what Indyk explained is the Syrian Sharaa-style political psyche at work!? It's very funny though. Original? Not in the least bit. Just retype some of your older posts on how American will soon get "bored" with this, etc. All in all, a wonderfully stupid post.
Either I am talking to the wrong crowd or you guys! I used to be a Republican but I converted to the Democratic Party after I couldn't take the lies of the Republican.
At work, I discuss things with my co-workers who know about the middle east and foreign policy that even me (I consider myself well informed and read at least 10 newspapers "diverse" a day) is not aware of! Just after the assassination of Hariri several people came to me to tell me about what they think (who killed him and why and the US ought to do, ...) On March 8 (after the Hizbullah/Shiite/Syrian demonstration) one of my co-workers came to ask me what is going on? He thought that Lebanese got used to been occupied that don't want to be free! That is the type of people that I meet, work with and have lunch with! We even had a lunch group where we discuss an issue "politics no work related issues are allowed to be discussed" during lunch. We had Republicans and democrats, Irish and Italians, urbans and suburbans, ...
America is a diverse society and you can not generalize it. But on election day, everyone thinks about his own interest which most of the time it is his/her pocket!
But the public opinion is steered by the media. If the US government wants to "introduce" a new product, you will hear about it in the media. Another issue, Lebanese Americans are very active in the government and media to keep the Lebanese issue on the front burner. Arab American are divided between trying to find the truth about who killed Hariri and at the same time don't want Syria to go through what Iraq is going through! Trust me, we "Lebanese American" will not rest until we get the murderers so they will face justice regardless who they are! We will work hard to achieve an independent, free, soverign Lebanon!
Tony,
Why dont you keep the barking to your blog? You’re someone who tries to spray perfume on a pile of shit. Your arguments smell nice with your linguistic skills but at the end of the day it’s still a piece of shit. And your closed-mindedness is astonishing. Will you never accept to open your mind up to an argument that contradicts the views swarming inside your stubborn head? Or will you continue to be one of those few people who unfortunately give the Lebanese the bad name of being a bunch of racists and bigots, who hate everyone who is unlike them? I advise you to stick to regurgitating what Michael Young says ‘cause when you attempt to compose a coherent argument on your own it fails miserably.
""""""Trust me, we "Lebanese American" will not rest until we get the murderers so they will face justice regardless who they are! We will work hard to achieve an independent, free, soverign Lebanon!
""""""""
hehhehehe
A stupid Lebanese speaks as if he had something to do with the Syrians getting out of Lebanon! You dummy, where were you for 3 decades when it was alright for the Syrian regime to stau in Lebanon and kill your presidents and PMs all in harmony with Amrica and France at the same time? Did you think you just got your courage all of a sudden? What a fool!
I ajree with the jreat Lebaneze beoble!
The above comment is not mine! Some one is trying to use my name. I blame the Zionists!
Bullshit and Stereotypes based on reaction from lower class Americans, old and antiquated marketing ideas equivalent to urban legend. If that is what Card think, then he maybe smart but his knowledge of Americans is not up to date. That maybe why Bush is dipping fast toward a 2% approval margin.
The majority of Middle and Upper class Americans are well informed and spend several hours a week on TV and the internet. The proliferations of the blog industry and such site as Salon.com among others is a testimony for this.
Card maybe thinking that Americans still getting the news on Sunday night from Barbara Walter and Cronckite.
Introduced In the past 20 years hundreds of products and in such hard sell items such as clothing, an item totally relying on identity sell. My experience in marketing, especially in USA is great and span more than 25 years. Products that carry label Made in Syria
Faced no obstacle. But products marked with Made in Syrian Arab Republic is not welcome. American knows about Syria but they want nothing to do with Arabs.
Some try to sell as made in S.A.R. I preferred to label Syria and with couple of exceptions never had a problem with that. I may add that although the exceptions were Nordstrom and Ross stores, other Jewish owned or buyers did not object to Syria.
Back to the subject. At a recent party for my girl kindergarten classmate birthday. Met more than 60 Americans who were interested in knowing something about Syria. I was very impressed with the level of knowledge and awareness these people have about Syria and the Middle East. I would not say that Rancho Santa Margarita and Cotto de Casa areas are like Beverley Hill Rich. But they are Upper Middle and higher class.
One thing about America that you will not find in other cultures and societies at all. Is the Job or work does not necessarily means your level of education. Here, you can go to a Subway sandwich shop and learn that the Sandwich maker or cashier is getting his PHD from Stanford University this semester.
So, when I mean lower class American, I don’t mean those with lower income or poor but rather lower intellect or knowledge. In the examples given in this articles, the subjects were second generation immigrants. WHAT THE HELL DID YOU EXPECT FROM THEM. Do you have any idea about where the parents came from and how hard time they had to get to be working in a car rental agency and others. I do command then for not turning criminals. But these are not a good example to follow for sure as stated here in this friend and other opinions.
For the Agha
Imad
I don't have to tell where I was the last 3 decades! I know that I did my share to kick the Syrians out! Aren't they out begging the whole world not to have their ass kicked? Now, it is the turn of the Syrians to kick the mafia Asad Inc. regime out of their offices off their chairs so the Syrian people will get their freedom! If you call me dumb and stupid it means you are!
"Aren't they out begging the whole world not to have their ass kicked?"
And you think you did it? Or that the brave Lebanese did it? Learn something about the world then come back and brag!
This is turning into a low level Syrian versus Lebanese it seems. For the record, without America getting involved, Syria would still be in Lebanon today. No Lebanese opposition would have been able to do anything about it. Ironically, the Lebanese benefited the most from Bashar's horrendous mistakes in Lebanon. Syria is finally out as it should have done years ago.But, I would be cautious in the long run if I were Lebanese. in the next 20 years, Syria's population will reach 34 million while that of Lebanon will hardly reach 7. I think antagonizing 34 million poorer neighbors next door (closest two capitals in the world I believe) is not a smart long term strategy.
Lebanese don't have problems with the Syrians, our problem is with the Asad mafia regime!
Having a more populated nation next door means nothing! Look at India, China, and Pakistan! Oh, I forgot, Israel and Egypt and the surrounding countries!
Let the Syrians concentrate on their country and we Lebanese will concentrate on our country!
Can anyone here explain me please what is the difference between car renter and Fulbright professor?
:)
"The Syrian journalist Shaaban Abboud is not at all a friend of the ruling Syrian regime, but like many journalists and opposition members these days, he finds himself defending the regime presenting it as the only viable alternative around.
The main motivation for this bewildering attitude seems to be is fear of uncontrolled change. The fear is indeed well justified. It would have indeed much easier for all of us had Bashar turned up to be the right caliber reformist leader that the country sorely needs, had Bashar been able to reinvent the regime, creating a larger space for public participation in the decision-making process and allowing for greater transparency in the management of the country’s affairs. Instead Bashar turned up to be at best a weak and hapless leader, and at worst just another part of the problem, just another thug with his own particular business interests to pursue at the expense of the country and its people.
Rallying around this regime, under whatever pretext and regardless of the motives, is like rallying around a corpse. The only thing that this regime can deliver is decay.
So indeed the opposition is weak, indeed the opposition continues to hurt itself by turning against its main figures, people like Riad al-Turk and Kamal Labwani, and indeed, the opposition might be unable to prevent the implosion of the country. Still, and for all these shortcomings, the opposition is the only thing that is still showing some signs of life, so it is really the only hope.
Besides, the idea that the Baath Party has two million members is ridiculous. Had it really had this many members it could have easily filled the protest tents outside the US Embassy and the UN headquarters, instead of fielding just another freak show.
The reality is that the Baath is no more or less weak than any other party in Syria. It too cannot boast of more than several thousands active and dedicated members in its ranks. The other members are just there for membership benefits, benefits that have become all but meaningless of late due to the endemic corruption of the Party’s top cadres.
As for the country’s military and its security apparatuses, they were never under the control of the Baath Party and were never mean tot serve the Baath agenda, but that of the ruling clique.
On a related note, it does not matter in the least that Syria’s opposition does not have a popular mandate at this stage. Guiding the transitional process is an elitist mandate anyway. The main task of the opposition now should be to prepare itself for this task and to hasten its arrival.
The current crisis affords a unique opportunity for challenging the regime from the inside. But this window of opportunity is not going to be there for long, should the internal opposition in Syria, and the secular elements in particular, fail to take advantage of it. Else, the regime, which is bound to collapse under the deadweight of its own internal contradictions, is going to collapse on our heads, and there will no one to manage the aftermath.
The only opposition group that seems to understand the nature of the current crisis is the Muslim Brotherhood. Over the last few years, the Brotherhood has been playing all its cards right. Rather than shying away from talking to the Americans, they have been trying hard to open up channels for dialogue. Rather than attempting to bargain with a decrepit regime, they have been modernizing, grooming and offering themselves as a viable alternative.
I had thought that the Damascus Declaration Group has finally begun to understand the necessity of catching up and of attempting to balance things out, so that a secular alternative can also be laid forth, and so that the Islamists are forced to play their own game of catching up. Instead, the secular opposition continues to be as fractious and amateurish as ever. As such, the only hope may not be a real hope at all. The opposition may not be alive after all, and the Syrian people might be caught between two dead weights, that of the regime and that of the opposition.
Still, and in order not to end on such a pessimistic note, let me say that I still prefer to bet on the opposition, which has never been tried, than on a regime and a president that have had ample opporunity to show us their real metal. We have the scars to prove it.
_______________
And on a completely unrelated note, Rami Khouri has an excellent article in the Daily Star dealing with the implications of the Paris Riots. "
Ammar
...."Burning cars in Paris and interrupted terror bombings in Sydney may achieve that which a generation of indigenous, patient scholarship, analysis and activism in the Middle East and North Africa have not elicited: serious political and economic reforms that assert the basic rights or Arab citizens to live in societies defined by decency and equality, and the indelible humanity of Arab youth who have been deformed beyond recognition by the inequities of their own tortured political cultures. "
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=10&categ_id=5&article_id=19875#
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hey ghssan ,
Do you live in lebanon, or are you one of these brave freedom fighters who live in the US and try to export their corrupt ,stupid and foolish way of thinking to our region.
At the end of the day there is no big problem between muslims in syria and lebanon we are brothers but if you are a Maroni then think twice because the United snakes and France CAN'T PROTECT YOUR SAD BUTT FOR TOO LONG LOL
Shamee27,
i really wish the weblog admin can do his job for once and block morons like you for good.
And to that EXTRA cool guy who is using my nickname: if imitation is the sincerest form of flattery, thanks but no thanks, i think im flattered enough now.
This post has been removed by the author.
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