"To survive, Bashar Assad will have to fight his family," By Seale
To survive, Bashar Assad will have to fight his family
By Patrick Seale
Monday, October 31, 2005
The political storm caused by the Mehlis report into the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri has, paradoxically, provided Syria's President Bashar Assad with a golden opportunity. For the first time since he came to power in 2000, he has a unique chance to impose his authority on rival power centers and emerge as the real ruler of Syria.
In their different ways, both the international community and his own public are urging him to act. They are encouraging him to carry out a "corrective movement" against undisciplined barons of his regime, including men close to him, similar to the palace coup which brought his late father, Hafez Assad, to power in 1970. The choice before Assad is clear: either continue to claim that Syria is innocent of the murder of Hariri and that the charges in the Mehlis report are unsound and politically motivated or recognize that mistakes have been made and carry out a purge of the top security officials named in the report.
The first course would inevitably condemn the regime to international isolation and to wide-ranging sanctions, including the freezing of overseas assets of its leading members, a travel ban, and possibly even the issue of international arrest warrants. A destabilized Syria would then be vulnerable to attempts at "regime change" by its enemies.
In contrast, the second course would stabilize the country and the wider region, and win Assad immediate domestic and international support. But to manage a crisis of such unprecedented proportions, Assad would need to display unusual qualities of courage and political acumen. This is the most difficult moment in the president's career. Moreover, he is under pressure to act fast. It is likely that the window of opportunity will be open for only the next few weeks. The United Nations has given Mehlis until December 15 to complete his investigations and submit a more detailed report. Within this limited time-frame, Assad will enjoy a certain freedom of maneuver, largely for the following reasons:
First, although the Mehlis report confirmed his quarrel with Hariri, it did not suggest that he was personally implicated in the murder; second, members of the Security Council have asked Syria to conduct its own investigation into the murder, which Damascus has, in fact, now agreed to do so. This is a clear signal from the international community urging Assad to act; third, tens of thousands of people came out on the streets of Damascus, Aleppo and other cities last week in support of Assad. Although it was not clear whether the demonstrations were organized by the security services, the Baath Party or Assad's own men, the message was clear. The public wants the president to show strength to protect the country from enemies abroad and wild men at home; fourth, even the so-called "patriotic opposition" is ready to back the president against external, largely American, pressures, if he undertakes to clean up corruption and crime, rein in the security services, and give more space to civil rights activists; and fifth, by far the most important factor in Assad's favor is the support he appears to enjoy from the commanders of Syria's armored and mechanized divisions, and from the elite Republican Guard. Among staunch Assad loyalists, for example, is Manaf Tlass, a prominent officer in the Republican Guard, and the son of the former long-serving Defense Minister Mustafa Tlass.
The Syrian Army is a highly secretive organization. The names of the most influential and powerful officers are largely unknown. But the army remains the guardian of the state's legitimacy. Its chiefs were not implicated in the Mehlis report. They obeyed the political leadership in withdrawing from Lebanon. Today, they have a vital role in defending the country's institutions, including the presidency itself.
Observers of the Syrian scene believe that the backing of these men could allow Assad to face down his younger brother, Maher, who commands a powerful praetorian unit, the 4th Corps, which controls the immediate approaches to the capital. If a confrontation were to occur between the brothers, it would be a replay of the clash in 1984 between Assad and his younger brother Rifaat, who at the time also commanded a powerful unit known as the Defense Companies. That confrontation ended in Hafez Assad's triumph and Rifaat's eventual exile.
This is a moment of great fluidity in Syrian affairs. The present situation is untenable. The country is expecting some sort of a showdown between rival forces. In these difficult times, the inclination is to keep one's head down and not take sides. For example, leading luminaries of the Baath Party have not spoken. The new Regional Command formed after the party congress last summer has so far not issued a statement in support of Assad, who is the party's secretary-general.
Something of a mystery also surrounds the position of Foreign Minister Farouk Sharaa. Rumor has it that he has not been seen at the office recently. A meeting he was due to have in New York last week with UN Secretary General Kofi Annan was cancelled. The Mehlis report accused him of providing false information.
It is also no secret that Syria's powerful security and intelligence services are deeply divided. They are at the center of the Hariri scandal. The president's brother-in-law, General Assef Shawkat, head of military intelligence, was named in the report. The recent suicide or killing of Minister of Interior Ghazi Kanaan points to a situation of extreme tension between the strongmen of the regime.
Assad may derive small comfort from the gap in American and French positions regarding Syria. The prime French interest would seem to be to arrive at the truth concerning Hariri's murder and to protect Lebanon from further Syrian interference. France is cautious about endorsing regime change, in spite of President Jacques Chirac's apparent personal animus against Assad. Nor does France share Washington's wider agenda use the Hariri murder to pressure Syria into changing its regional policies.
In particular, the Bush administration would like Syria to prevent any help reaching the Iraqi insurgents across its border. It would like to break Syria's alliance with both Iran and Hizbullah. And it would like Syria to end its support for radical Palestinian factions.
Looking beyond the outrage over the Hariri murder, most Syrians would argue that a grave injustice is being done to their country. Israel appears to enjoy complete immunity, while the United States and Britain are guilty of waging an illegal war in Iraq. Why is Syria alone in the dock? Is there a more flagrant example of international double standards than this?
Patrick Seale, a veteran Middle East analyst, wrote this commentary for THE DAILY STAR.
13 Comments:
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How do I despise this so called Seal!!!
Again, they want to compare what Hafez Assad did in 1970, a coup that brought all of these corrupt individuals to power and was called "correctionist" movement which was the start of the destruction of Lebanon, Syra, Iraq, and Palestine, with what they are calling for now for this little cat "Assad" to do, as another so called correctionist movement in which this arrogant and ignorant young Assad would clean up the field of his brother and brother in law!
What a difference between 1970 and now! The so called "correctionist movement" between Hafez Assad and Salah Jedid-Atassi was ideological, and it was between those who were not asking to get rich and be corrupt, and Hafez Assad and his gang who wanted to get rich, get corrupt, and corrupt the people and the country!
What is the battle now between Bashar Assad and his brother? I just can not undersand this love affair between the West and Bashar! I do not understand what they see in this man whose words are so empty whenever he speaks. All he can say is to philosophy the meaning of a word and act as an elementary teacher to teach the people and the others what he had meant by words he used!
It is time to finish all of the Assads, not only Maher, but all of them. It is time for the Syrians to breath freedom, and for the corrupt to pay for their crimes over 35 years of the sad time during which they have governed Syria!
JAM
The UN gave Syria a notice , requiring full cooperation, Syria doesnt understand that it means interrogating Bashar and the entourage someone needs to explain this to them.
No he can not just fight the family. No way. He does not have the guns and intelligence, in fact he can be ousted in a heart beat by his brother, sister and brother in law, or by the Baath party. This U.N. resolution was one of the most clever diplomatic move made by the U.S. in a very long time.
Washington should waste no time in starting clandestinely the regime change process by sponsoring and uniting all of the opposition it can get, regardless if it agrees with the policies of each individual opposition. The bylaws and agenda of the uniting entity should dictate the general policy that must be adhered to. Otherwise, one will understand that all they wanted is to push for is chaos as a Syrian policy and let the survival of the fittest win and deal with them afterward or they may have ready standing dictator. That is not very wise.
A Syrian Congress representing all the factions and sects of Syrian society, one that is backed by the International and American support and protection, can push forward a soft landing for Syria with minimum of Chaos and strife.
Sam, I am sure they fully understand this .
The President will HAVE to give up the culprits whoever they are. It is a matter of saving Syria from invasion and occupation or crippling sanctions.
Isn't it time to show some true patriotism?
I think there's a dogma carved in stone somewhere that says:
"despots will never voluntarily abdicate from power".
Here's my crystal ball:
1) Mehlis calls several high-ranking people to questioning, including, most likely, Bashar himself.
2) Bashar, naturally, will refuse to let himself or his brother be under investigation.
3) on Dec 16 or thereabouts, Mehlis reports that the Syrians didn't cooperate (this is an almost foregone conclusion).
4) Dec 22: the Security Council meets, decides to impose economic sanctions on Syria. Russia, China, and Algeria abstain.
5) Merry Xmas. Syria soon starts going the dark path of Iraq. Arab countries 'tashjob wa tunaddid'
6) After a couple of years (or less), the US army imposes no-fly zones over Syria in Kurdish areas. Later, Marines start making headway towards Damascus under the execuse of chasing insurgents.
7) Syria descends into chaos. Israelis, some Lebanese, and scum the world over rejoice.
6) Goto 1, insert different Arab country's name and start all over again.
Sorry, some people are hopelessly optimistic. First, what makes you think there is some sort of conflict between Assad and his family or Assad and the intelligence and defense establishment? Second, why is there a belief in the need for the Syrians to do anything? If one reads about the relationship between Syria and the international community one would find it littered with the following phrase "Now the Syrian government must make a strategic decision to fundamentally change its behavior."
One will also find that the Syrian government has usually found ways of doing nothing and getting away with it. This hoopla over the Hariri murder will slowly disappear and everything will be back to normal. Even were there to be a real crisis, when the government is run by a small group of people, as it is here, now is a time for quiet compromise between the major players (if there are any conflicts in the first place). In any conversations between the major players freedom and democracy are probably not mentioned. When the major forces have aligned, some minor people might magically disappear or quietly go abroad, but nothing major will change.
As far as the French go, what is it exactly that the French are capable of doing? Bashar Assad has nothing to worry about from the French anyway as long as he promises the French to stay out of Lebanon. The Americans are stuck in Iraq and are in no political mood for another regime change. The Israelis also understand that the best thing for them is to keep Assad in power and to pray for stability in that country. There are no forces that will invade and occupy Syria. Even real sanctions are unlikely. In the end a Syrian inquiry will blame everything on Kenaan and the Russians or the Chinese will veto any further action.
Any and all actions taken inside Syria now is just smoke and mirrors. Demonstrations in the streets are a sign that Assad has a machine capable of bringing people out to the streets. It does not create a public that 'wants the president to show strength to protect the country from enemies abroad and wild men at home'. The so-called 'patriotic opposition' is some more smoke... In a totalitarian state there is no such thing as a 'patriotic opposition'.. When a third of the state informs for the Mukhabarat there is no such thing as an opposition inside the country. At least not outside prison walls.
And the last thing is why does Patrick Seale believe that Bashar al-Assad was not involved in the murder of Rafiq al-Hariri? Do you really think that Syrian intelligence would kill the most powerful man in Lebanon without permission from Assad?
Oh and for the comment from the 'syrian repubican party'.. A Syrian Congress would be about as useful in creating a soft landing as the Iraqi Congress was in doing the same in Iraq. It would also be even less useful as the INC was in bringing down Saddam. At least the INC included the Kurds who had the peshmerga. What would a Syrian Congress bring to the table but a bunch of windbags, each pissed off that at one point or another he was kicked off the gravy train by the Assads?
Really relates to the Oct 30 post--but does anyone have the full text of the "Damascus Declaration" with the signatories? English translation or arabic.
Josh--If not, is something you could post and possibly translate?
إعلان دمشق للتغيير الوطني الديمقراطي
http://www.arraee.com/modules.php?name=News&file=article&sid=6687
What do people think of the comments our foreign minister Sharaa made at the UN yesterday:
In a comment that led to a vigorous counterattack by Foreign Secretary Jack Straw of Britain, Mr. Sharaa said accusing the Syrian security forces of knowing in advance about Mr. Hariri's assassination was the same as accusing security forces in the United States of having advance knowledge about the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, the authorities in Spain of knowing about the 2004 train bombings, and officials in Britain of having advance word of the London subway bombings this year.
Mr. Straw said he "wholly rejected the comparison," which he called "grotesque and insensitive" and "at best, absurd."
Ms. Rice later referred to Mr. Sharaa's comments as a "really unbelievable tirade," saying, "This was a truly strange presentation."
Mr. Straw told Council members that if they had had any misgivings about why the resolution had to be an enforceable Chapter VII measure, "those misgivings were surely put to rest by the lengthy statement we have just heard."
"I look forward to cooperation from Syria," he said, "but after what I have just heard, I am not holding my breath."
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/01/international/middleeast/01syria.html
Or in April 2003:
"Historians talk about the Second World War and how the Germans should have been stopped earlier."
Then, just before Sharaa was about to compare the Bush administration to Nazi Germany, France's de Villepin stopped him.
"You do not want to make this comparison," de Villepin said. "Don't do this."
Sharaa regained his composure and talked about the need to maintain dialogue and peace in the region.
http://www.cnn.com/2003/WORLD/meast/04/12/sprj.irq.syria/
Is it just me--or do moments like these make Sharaa really not seem like the foreign policy wizard that he is sometimes is written up to be?
I visited Syria last summer, on the surface , people are not talking politics, may be they are not concerned, since they have no say in the decision making, or may be they are afraid, they were going on with their lives , ,prties, going to Bludan ,ain al fijeh, ordering large quantities of food.in the evening , young men and woman fill the street of abdulmunem riad, watching the kids of the rich or official kids enjoying the best and expensive meals, around the sheraton hotel the area is crowded.
If you press them they are brief, but they say Asef Shawkat is the actual governor, they know a lot about the Assad family.
corruption is widespread, bribery is a must, getting high ranking job means getting rich, they all say human have no value in Syria.
there are 26000 yellow cab in Damascus the fume of the burned gas make the air sickening,95% of taxi drivers are from outside Damascus.
infection diseases are widespread, water is not clean , even the bottled water.
the religous Imams are in control inside the mosques, preaching what they are alowed, the newspapers, all are the same ,if you read one ,like you read all of them.
May be they are ok, but this is not Damascus that I knew, one sense and smell the need for change.
Here is a comment from some one inside Syria addressing an Internet friend of his. He states that the Syrian people are happy to finally see the light at the end of the tunnel, and that there is going to be Justice from those that massacred Syrians for the last 35 years. I can conquer with his views because I am also in touch with few people there who tell me the same, and insist that the Syrian people will not follow the Iraqi example and that is because of their known history of being non violent and understanding!
""
عدت البارحة ليلاً من دمشق وفوجئت بالتغيرات الدراماتكية الطارئة على أفكارك وأريد أن أوضح لك بعض القضايا بحكم صداقتنا الإنترنيتية القديمة ولأنني أعرف نواياك الحقيقية حيال النظام الذي قد يتوهم البعض أنك تدافع عنه بانتقادك لتقرير ميليس.
بالنسبة لموقف معظم المواطنين السوريين مما يجري كما رأيته عن كثب وبتخطيط مني ورغبة في سبر أغوار الآراء.
لا أخفيك أن هناك قلق من تداعيات العقوبات على سوريا ولكن ليس محبة بالنظام هناك شبه حالة من الفرح بقرب الخلاص ودعوات لجعل هذا الخلاص سلساً مأموناً سلمياً.
الحديث في دمشق بين معظم الناس الذي يفقهون قليلاً (ولا أتكلم عن الجهلة والبسطاء) هو تورط النظام بجريمة اغتيال الشهيد رفيق الحريري وأقول شهبد لأنه قتل بطريقة تمتلئ حقداً وكرها وغلاً لهذه الحالة التي زاوجت بين السياسة والحضور الاجتماعي والعمل الخيري قل أن نجد سياسياً عربياً أو رجل أعمال قدم للبنان وسوريا ما قدمه الحريري وما الحملات المنظمة التي كانت تشن ضده طوال السنوات الماضية إلا غيض من فيض ناصر قنديل ورستم غزالي ومن لف لفهم.. ليس هذا هو الموضوع ولكن الموضوع هو أن أصابع الاتهام تشير إلى هذا النظام الغبي الدموي في هذه الجريمة وهناك قرائن كثيرة ترجح هذا الاحتمال وهو على كل حال نظام لا يتورع عن فعل أي شيء سافل في سبيل بقائه وبقاء مصالحه وامتيازاته ولا أظنك غافل عنها.
بالنسبة لتقرير ميليس
أظن انه يحمل قدراً كبيرا من المهنية (وأنا أعني تماماً ما أقول) التي تجعل الإنسان يقف احتراماً له فأنا قرأت التقرير أكثر من عشر مرات ودققته ولم أجد فيه أي تسييس كما زعمت آلة الإعلام الحكومية المهترئة.
أما عن زج اسم الفلسطينيين فيه فيحب الانتباه هنا إلى أن الحديث يدور عن جماعة أحمد جبريل ولا أظنك تجهل أن جبريل وجماعته لا علاقة لهم بالحالة الفلسطينية لا من قريب ولا من بعيد وهم حالة مخابراتية سورية بامتباز.
يكفي أن أذكرك بأن أحمد جبريل قصف مخيم البداوي ونهر البارد في طرابلس علم 1984 بالمدافع وسكانها فلسطينيون بحجة ان عرفات (الخائن) موجود هناك.
ولمعلوماتك وكلامي يستند إلى مصادر موثوقة جداً أن بشار الأسد استدعى احمد جبريل بعد خروج القوات السورية من لبنان وقال له بالحرف الواحد ((لقد جاء دورك الآن يا أحمد)) وبدأ أحمد جبريل بتهريب الأسلحة والذخائر إلى المخيمات الفلسطينية استعداد لإشعال المخيمات بحرب أهلية تنفذ ما قاله بهجت سليمان عام 2003 في جريدة السفير اللبنانية وادعوك وأدعو جميع الأصدقاء لمراجعة ذلك المقال المهم الذي يعبر عن طريقة تفكير النظام ويوضح بشكل غير مباشر أسباب اغتيال الحريري. وهو على كل حال منشور في أحد أشرطة هذا المنتدى.
المخاوف التي يتحدث عنا البعض بأن الفوضى ستكون مصير سوريا إذا ذهب هذا النظام العفن دعاية مغرضة هدفها تيئييس الناس .. أؤكد لك بأن الشعب السوري قادر على تجاوز المحنة من دون عصابة آل الأسد –مخلوف وسوريا ليست العراق لأسباب كثيرة ليس هنا مجال لبحثها وأنا أؤكد لك بأن المجتمع والشعب السوري سيتجاوزان هذه الغمة على غير ما يتوقع أو يريد الآخرون.
أنا لا أقول بأن نوايا الأميركيين أو الأوربيين سليمة حيال سوريا ولكن هذا النظام أوصل الشعب لأن يتمنى أي شيء إلا أن يبقى هذا النظام أو يستمر الوضع على حالة لأنه وضع متفسخ متعفن أزكمت رائحة موته الأنوف.
اريد أن أؤكد لك بأن بعض الذين يدافعون عن النظام على الفضائيات يتكلمون كلاماً أقسى بكثير مما يقال في هذا المنتدى على بشار وشقيقه.. وحالة النقمة العارمة وصلت إلى درجة لا يمكن تخيلها والجميع يحمل هذا الولد الجاهل الذي زج به في معمعان الحكم المسؤولية إضافة إلى شقيقه العصابي نصف المجنون وزوج شقيقته الأهبل المتخلف عقلياً.. هؤلاء المتخلفون هم الذين يحكمون سوريا اليوم ولا أظن ان اغتيال الحريري يمكن أن يصدر إلا عن هذه (التريسة) المكعبة الغباء والتكبر والعنجهية الفارغة.
بعد صدور تقرير ميليس توقعت أن يلزم الناس بيوتهم ولكنني فوجئت بالابتسامات والضحكات في الشوراع المزدحمة وكأن هناك كرنفال .. صدقني أن السوريين تنفسوا الصعداء عندما سمعوا أسماء المشتبه بهم ولا أبالغ إذا قلت لك أن مبيع الحلويات والكنافة النابلسية زاد في ذلك اليوم. وأينما ذهبت كنت اسمع عبارة (كلاها حمد) تتبعها ضحكة كبيرة، ولا أخفيك أنني صدمت من الحالة ولكنني أدركت أنها حالة طبيعية بل ويجب أن تكون كذلك.
بالنسبة لمظاهرة دمشق كنت موجوداً هناك في ساحة السبع بحرات ورأيت بأم عيني ماذا كان الوضع موظفون وعمال ينكتون ويضحكون ولا يتجاوز العدد الكلي لمن تواجد في هذه التظاهرة المليونية أكثر من 3500 شخص ثلاثة ألاف وخمسمائة شخص لا أكثر هذا العدد الذي استطاعوا أن يحشدون لهذه المظاهرة المسخرة.
لكنني لمست (وهذا أمر طبيعي ومشروع) لدى الأخوة العلويين حالة رعب شديدة من القادم وحالة يأس وإحباط كبيرين ولذلك أرى أن تسعى قوى المعارضة السورية (وخصوصاً التيار الإسلامي) لطأنة أخوتنا العلويين بأن مصيرهم ليس مرتبطاً بالنظام وأننا أبناء بلد واحد ومصير واحد ولن تقوم ديمقراطية في سوريا دون العلويين وغيرهم من مكونات الشعب السوري. هذا الخطاب مهم جداً الآن.
إن المخاوف التي تقلقك ليست موجودة في الواقع وآمال التغيير كبيرة والأسواق عامرة والعيد عيدين عيد تعرفه وعيد أيضاً تعرفه.
بالمناسبة أغنية هيفا وهبي ليست (راجع حوش صاحبك عني) بل (رجب حوش صاحبك عني).
مع خالص المحبة لجميع الأصدقاء القدماء والجدد وخصوصاً والأموي وروح سوريا ورافض والثعالبي والمعري وشهيد وخليل ونادر وإبراهيم وجميع من نسيتهم مع خالص اعتذاري.
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JAM
I don't Seale has really thought it through when he suggests that Bashar could face down his own brother, Maher. They both grew up together and aren't known for much conflict between them as was the case between Hafez and Rifaat. I think it's a bit premature for anyone to think that Bashar would, even if he could, face down Maher.
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