The UN decision and Fall Out

In the aftermath of the UN resolution which was a body blow for Damascus, many are wondering if the President will sacrifice his family or his people.

Syria called for an emergency Arab League summit in a bid on Monday to rally regional support in the face of stern UN Security Council action that would force greater cooperation from Damascus in the probe of the assassination of a former Lebanese prime minister.

But Arab diplomats, already hedging against a lack of broad support for a summit of all 22 members, suggested a smaller gathering of Syria, Saudi Arabia, Algeria, Lebanon and Egypt might be organized should others decline out of concern over harming ties to the UN resolution’s prime sponsors - the United States, France and Britain.

Anti-Syrian Lebanese political leader Walid Jumblatt, meanwhile, warned, “If (he) acts like Saddam did, yes, we are heading to a situation similar to what happened in Iraq,” Jumblatt said in an interview with the Dubai-based Al-Arabiya satellite television channel late Sunday. “But if he acts in order to preserve Syria’s national unity and Syria’s interest before (serving) the brother-in-law, a brother or anyone, he can save Syria.” (AP) 31 October 2005

Condaleezza Rice's remarks before the UN decision:

With our decision today, we show that Syria has isolated itself from the international community through its false statements, its support for terrorism, its interference in the affairs of its neighbors, and its destabilizing behavior in the Middle East.

Now the Syrian Government needs to make a strategic decision to fundamentally change its behavior. Until that day comes, however, we in the international community must remain united and we must remain resolute in our pursuit of truth, our defense of justice, and our support of liberty for the brave and courageous Lebanese people.

Security Council Tells Syria to Cooperate

Monday October 31, 2005 10:46 PM
By EDITH M. LEDERER
Associated Press Writer

UNITED NATIONS (AP) - A united Security Council warned a defiant Syria on Monday of possible ``further action'' if it doesn't cooperate with a U.N. investigation that has implicated top Syrian officials in the assassination of Lebanon's former prime minister.

But the United States, France and Britain had to drop the explicit threat of sanctions to win unanimous support for the resolution at a rare meeting of the foreign ministers from most of the council's 15 members.

The three nations stressed they will press for tough U.N. measures if Syria does not comply fully with the probe into the killing of Rafik Hariri and 20 others.

Their original resolution threatening sanctions had to be watered down to get all the council members on board. Russia, China, Brazil and others, particularly Algeria, the only Arab nation on the council, strongly opposed putting sanctions on Syria.

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said the resolution still left Syria in a corner.

``With our decision today, we show that Syria has isolated itself from the international community - through its false statements, its support for terrorism, its interference in the affairs of its neighbors, and its destabilizing behavior in the Middle East,'' she said. ``Now, the Syrian government must make a strategic decision to fundamentally change its behavior.''

The resolution requires Syria to detain anyone considered a suspect by U.N. investigators and let them determine the location and conditions under which the individual is questioned. It also would freeze assets and impose a travel ban on anyone identified as a suspect.

Those provisions could pose a problem for Syrian President Bashar Assad as well as his brother, Maher Assad, and his brother-in-law, Assef Shawkat, the chief of military intelligence. The Syrian leader refused a request from chief investigator Detlev Mehlis to be interviewed, and investigators also want to question his brother and brother-in-law.

Syrian Foreign Minister Farouk al-Sharaa watched the vote and listened to speeches from all 15 council nations demanding his government fully cooperate. He then lashed out at Mehlis and the council for accusing Syria of committing a crime without producing any evidence.

He said accusing Syrian security forces of having advance knowledge of Hariri's killing was tantamount to charging that U.S. officials knew ahead of time about the Sept. 11 attacks, Spain knew about the 2004 train bombings and Britain knew about this summer's London bombings.

The comment visibly angered British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw, who called it ``the most grotesque and insensitive comparison,'' ``appalling,'' and ``absurd.'' He said any council member concerned about adopting the resolution under Chapter VII of the U.N. Charter, which is militarily enforceable, should have their misgivings allayed by al-Sharaa's defiance.

Rice told reporters afterward that al-Sharaa's outburst was ``a tirade which made the most bizarre connection.''

She noted al-Sharaa was accused of lying in a letter to the Mehlis commission and said his intransigence showed Syria wanted to discredit the U.N. investigation even after a Security Council vote strongly supported it.

Rice was asked whether putting the resolution under Chapter VII would give the United States unilateral authority to use force against Syria, as it did in Iraq.

``This Chapter VII resolution is very explicit in what it means, which is that Syria must cooperate with the Mehlis report and then, if necessary, the council can come back and consider other measures, or other action. ... That is what we intend to live by,'' she replied.

Rice stressed the resolution also tells Syria ``in no uncertain terms'' that it should ``not interfere in Lebanese affairs in any way.''

Syrian troops occupied much of Lebanon for nearly 30 years, until Hariri's Feb. 14 assassination triggered widespread street protests by Lebanese and intensified international pressure that forced Assad to order a complete withdrawal last spring.

Boutros Assaker, the acting secretary-general in Lebanon's foreign ministry, told the Security Council his country had entered a new phase in its history and was trying ``to consolidate its political independence'' and enhance its sovereignty.

What the Lebanese people want, he said, ``is the truth, the whole truth ... of this heinous, terrorist crime.''

France's foreign minister, Philippe Douste-Blazy, said the resolution ``makes a clear, firm and urgent appeal to Syria'' to cooperate with the Mehlis investigation, which has been extended until Dec. 15.

At the end of his speech, al-Sharaa reiterated the importance of the presumption of innocence and insisted Assad's regime would ``fully cooperate with the international commission until conclusive evidence is found of the perpetrators of this heinous crime.''

``I look forward to the full cooperation by the government of Syria in substance as well as form,'' Straw retorted, then added: ``But I have to say after what I've heard I'm not holding my breath.''

Several other council members, however, noted Syria's recent promises to cooperate.

Assad on Saturday ordered that a judicial committee be formed to investigate Hariri's assassination - a point stressed by al-Sharaa. A presidential decree said the committee will cooperate with the U.N. probe and Lebanese judicial authorities.

Brazilian Foreign Minister Celso Amorim, whose country has large Lebanese and Syrian communities, made clear any further action against Syria would require Security Council approval.

``Brazil will not favor hasty decisions that may lead to an undesirable escalation of the situation or further endanger the stability of the region,'' he said.
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Here is a reaction sent to me by one Syrian:

Sorry for the long reply but below is how i feel about the issue, i haven't been posting on your site for a while so i guess i am cramming it all in this email.

I see very few options that Syria can have which might influence or alter the increasingly gloomy fate it’s nearing. It’s more likely that foreign issues, such as disagreements between the US & France or Russia, etc. that will spare or break Syria. Its really quiet astonishing how irrelevant Damascus has become when it comes to international or even regional politics within the last 3 years.

The one and only option that I see as a way out for the leadership is the option they are likely to take if hell should freeze over, and that is to open up…exponentially!!! By allowing real freedom of speech, press, and seriously pave the road to a true multi-party system.

Syria is steam cooker ready to explode and the government shouldn’t just loosen the steam valve but to take the whole lid off. While it’s clear that crisis management and pro-activeness is not Damascus’s strongest asset, one can only hope that realism is. And at this point of time cutting your losses is the soundest strategy, and losing some of the Ba’ath’s influence is a much more pleasant scenario than losing the whole shebang. If they really wanted to (and they DON’T) they can take the lead in the mid-term and chaperon the transition into a political system in which the Ba’ath and Alwaite echelon can still play a pivotal role in Syrian society. They have always excelled in maintaining security in such a hostile region, but they have failed miserably in good governance and that’s where other SECULAR and realistic parties can play a role. Opposition parties should not, and don’t seem to, kid themselves in thinking that Syria’s external weakness will translate into a fatal internal haemorrhage, so dialogue must commence even if they prefer a different leadership. I mean lets be realistic here, the Americans will not be able to invade another country and their strategy seems, to me at least, to be one of a very serious bluff on that front. Instead they will opt to make Syria bleed, humiliated and hope that in a few years the people will do their dirty work for them. To reach their goal the Neo-Cons in Washington are counting on a passive and predictable Damascus that will close in on its self and try to hibernate any possible sanctions out (that sounds like a safe bet), but this is exactly why the opposite must occur. Otherwise the government will become schizophrenic and paranoid entity that will crack down on the most mediocre of voices, which is self-defeating for obvious reasons. That’s why the painful but extremely needed actions mentioned earlier are necessary to mute most internal and several external voices calling for an attack on Syria, let the go crazy and become unpredictable for once. I would even say that these actions should have been conducted a year ago because any attempt to reconcile differences (such as the attempt to solve the Kurdish citizenship problem now) will appear hypocritical and worse will convince the masses that Damascus will only improve its attitude under threats.

But its too late for all of that now, and the Syrian government must understand that the more they delay action the more they will have to give up and although I do not think we have reached the point of no return yet, its certainly approaching with haste. Yes!!! The Americans are out to get Syria and Hariri’s murder investigation is being cheaply leveraged for strategic reasons. It has been obvious prior to 14/02/2005 that Syria is a target and Lebanon’s freedom is not on Washington’s priority list. But Damascus should not blame anyone but its self for it current predicament, it was the one that allowed its enemies to play it in this manner. So the big question is whether Bashar is going to rise to the occasion like his father did in the 1980’s? I guess time will tell…

But probably I am a raving madman and this is all hopeful thinking. Instead we will in all likelihood, see Melhis calling for an investigation with the President, his brother and Assef Shawkat. In which Damascus will most likely refuse (At least with the president), this will be the justification and catalyst for a harsher UN sanction and its all downhill from there. Oh how fun it is to be a pessimist :D

Regards,
Innocent Criminal