Is the Regime weaker or stronger following the crack down of on the internal opposition?
Burhan Ghalioun, one of Syria's sharpest analysts and opposition voices, answers this question in his article on aljazeera.net, "The Arrests and the Deepening of the Syrian Crisis," in the affirmative.
He argues that with their arrest, the thirteen opposition intellectuals are winning. Why? Because the regime has painted itself as the extremist, while the opposition has captured the middle gound of reasonableness and moderation.
Repression has worked in the past because the opposition was extremist (we can think of the Muslim Brothers) and the regime maintained the acquiescence of the masses because they did not see the extremist opposition as a solution.
Today this dynamic is reversed.
posted by Joshua Landis @ 6/15/2006 09:47:00 AM
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6 Comments:
You're mostly right Joshua. Most Syrians were very disappointed when they heard the regime arrested Michel Kilo and the other dissidents.
However, judging by the comments on champress and other Arabic Syria sites, many others considered Kilo's "siding with the Lebanese and against his country" an expected thing "given his religious background"
As usual, 80% of Syrians are logical and reasonable, but the remaining 20% are reason to worry.
The above numbers are rough approximations of course, please do not ask me wher i came up with those numbers.
Is the regieme weaker or stronger after the crack downs.... are you serious??? what crack downs and who. Millions, thousands, hundreds, no; TENS. And that is called crack down. Beria must be turning over and laughing in his grave, so would the current head of the Homeland Department of Security at your side of the world if had read this.
I will be dammned. Syria's regiem which told the Bush admin to shove it years ago when people thought the rod was red-hot, is going to be analysed if it has become weaker or stronger after it has arrested few people who have commited offenses punishable by the existing laws. Save your self the trouble. Syria is still the same. Do not go into over analysing things. Not good for your emotional IQ.
Love ya guys, and love your newly discovered lave and interest in Syria'as well being, democratization, growth, civil society,...etc..the record is nearing its breaking point.
Wanna be more caring about us poor Arabs and direct some of your caring attention towards developments in the EGPYTIAN society? That is a tough one I agree. How about liberatarian Jiordan, Democratic Kuwait, or KSA with the great strides it is making towards economic, social and political development guided by the advice of the neo-economist gurus and the colomunists of the green-papers???? Judges, not unheared-off al Bonnies, and Abdel Noors and Khaddams, being beaten up in the street by the police. Rigged elections 'blessed by the US Admin, God bless its sole", an economy in shambles after the World Bank and USAID and the rest of the pack pitched in??? And then tell us about GNP, GDP, the "emerging" capitalist class in Syria which is understably unhappy with the authoreties "slow pace of reform". Reform??? My goodness, we are begining to love your caring attention!!! Why am I getting fed up by the day by your empty theories. Khaddams, the MBs, the Damascuse Decleration, US messages and Bolton's statements. Even, the little sissy French, but thanks God they are quite now.. for some reason.
What do you really have in store for us Syrians??? Are you really that caring and sensetive about our well being. Well. our true well-being starts with your new-imperialisim understanding that we are not dump enough, nor flush with wealth like some of our Gulf brethern, nor on your CIA payroll to listen to you politely and two your line.One because we do not believie you, and two, because we have a higher degree of self strength than our brethern, and a stronger and a more ingrained sense of our social, cultural and historical role in our world.
Nice book on the stands by Jhon Perkins by ther title of Confessions of an Economic Hitman. It is a book worth reading if only to fathom the deapths to which mislead or misleading well-wishers can drift in thier search of "modernising,liberating and intregrating" the economies of us stupid, poor, uninitiated third-world LCDs can get if we "open up our societies and economies" to the WORLD. Not to say we are in perfect shape, but merely to outline that not all glitters is gold like some try tio sell under the different banners of Growth, Liberalisim, Development and Civil Societiy.
And we just carry a strong toarch light ,or a candle, and go searching in wether Syria has become stronger, weaker, or the same, after a couple, or a couple dozens political activists whome the local grocer could have difficulty recalling thier names.
More interesting subject would have been analysing the effects of the Syrian-Iranian newly signed military cooperation agreement, the rumered Russian build up at the Tartus-base, or the current manning level of the Syrian 1st, 5th., 7th. or 10th Armored Divisions or whatever they are called.
Joshua, I really do not believe that an effective, organized, home-grown, serious, and purposefull opposition exists in Syria now. And do not blame that on the authoreties alone. Daydreaming about it would not turn it into reality. Ask Dubbya if you doubt me....
Alex,
You are right, the regime pinned Lebanon as an enemy and some people like our friend Aussama above bought it and is selling it...
anyway, I am really impressed by the Syrian compassion about this suject and I wrote a post about it
Syrians Show Compassion while the Regime Show Ugly Face
Fares for a better Syria
I am sorry aussama but I guess you are from the 20% alex was talking about, you just like to talk and don't really care about thinking before doing so...
Do you really think that things are going to be normal, that all this is gona end like it never started...Will syria become a kingdome... well I don't think so.
First of all the syrian pple will not let this happen. And also, the economy is going to play an important roll, all syrians are going to be out of job soon and this is going to create a disaster.
I just hope we all see both sides of the coin, study both cases: Change of regime, and keep the same old government, and see what path is better for our country. This is what all syrians ought to do now.
A regime that does not tolerate free speach, freely expressed divergent opinions and up hold the basic tenets of human decency and civil rights...................
Syrians wake up from your slumber and hibernation,speak up and with a loud voice, thirty years of Baathist regime brutality in lebanon did not silence any body. No matter how many people were arrested, beaten, killed.
Look for inspiration no further than the life of mahatma ghandi who took on the whole british empire for his native countries freedom, he didnt evenn encourage violence.
This will be a long road, but the courage of Kilo and his fellow dissidents have set a precedent.
Egypt and Jordan, not Syria, that is the way to victory.
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