Guest commentary on Hizbullah

I have copied the comments of a number of friends below who are trying to figure out Hizbullah's stand vis a vis Syria and the Lebanese opposition. The real question is whether Hizbullah is fence sitting or is firmly on Syria's side. Will it join with the Lebanese opposition eventually or stick by Syria? The views are those of several smart academics and journalists: Nicholas Blanford of the C.S. Monitor, Michael Young or the Daily Star, Tony Badran of NYU, Michael Doran of Princeton, and Martin Kramer of WINEP and Lee Smith of Reason Magazine. My own comments will be coming soon.

From: "Tony Badran" NYU
so it seems that Bashar is going to manage to contain the Lebanese
interior, as Nasrallah is calling for a pro-Syrian demonstration. This I think is another way of intimidation, following all the staged pro-Syrian stuff and Lahoud's claim threat that he will smother the opposition and demonstrators. So, perhaps, the compromise now is to work with Lahoud and a "conciliatory" government.

Bashar is not pulling out, and he will consolidate a tight grip inside Syria, and dig his heals in Lebanon.


Michael Young wrote: (Daily Star)
I'm not sure I agree with this scenario. It's certainly possible, but it is equally likely that the Syrians will soon lose control of all this; in the end, the real deterrence factor Syria has is Hizbullah, and the party is not keen to be turned into Syria's goons, particularly if the Syrians are sure to be booted out. It is a difficult time (an 18-year-old was shot just now by pro-Syrian thugs), but I think it can be weathered if all remain calm.

From Nicholas Blanford (Christian Science Monitor)
I agree with Michael Young's comments below. This is not the end of the story by a long shot. What we are seeing now is political manouvering. So Hizbullah has called for a demonstration. Big deal. Let's face it. Hizbullah stands to lose a great deal if/once the Syrians disengage from Lebanon. One shouldn't underestimate the importance to Hizb of the Islamic Resistance. They will do what they can within their limited means to retain the resistance.

If the Syrians are serious about leaving and begin to do so in earnest then we will see Hizb's stance changing gradually. Bottom line is that Hizb has no choice if it wants to survive as a viable political entity.
best, Nick Blanford

From Lee Smith (Reason Magazine)
I don't know how the US or anyone in the international community is going to enforce this--and in the meantime, Bashar is going to make things hard for the US in Iraq and hell in Israel and show everyone he's not stupid. By the way, I'm confused by these comparisons to Hafez, as though that guy was a genius. Is there any doubt that had the US deposed Saddam in 91 and occupied Iraq that Hafez would've made life hard on US troops? He did it in Lebanon in 83, why not Iraq in 91? Bashar is following in his dad's footsteps--solid regime-thinking. And I'd even argue he's tougher than his dad. After all, James Baker was only too happy to roll over for Hafez; now that Colin
Powell's gone, young Bush and his crowd are calling Bashar an egregiously miserable human being and still Bashar is telling them to bugger off.

From Michael Doran (Princeton)
I have to say that if I were Asad, I would never leave Lebanon without a fight. The reason being that the struggle for Lebanon is the struggle for the Baath regime in Syria. If they pull out and the Lebanese establish a stable multiparty system of some sort, then the days of the Asad regime would certainly be numbered. The Syrians themselves would ask ever more vociferously why they have to live like this when their neighbors do not. So the choice is to fight now with all of the allies --

Iran, Hizballah, Russia? -- helping out, or fight later in an arena where the allies won't be of any service at all.

From: Tony Badran
Martin Kramer tells me that he never bought into the Lebanonization of Hizbullah. I still disagree with him up to point, but I don't see how else people on the streets are going to perceive this move, other than Hizbullah being Syrian proxies.

BTW. Was the 18 year old who got shot, killed? Who is he, where was he? How did this happen?

But how do you explain Hizbullah's demonstration? They won't get violent, but it's clearly an intimidation factor, which along with less restrained elements like the pitbulls Asim Qanso, Nasser Qandil, Sleiman Franjieh, these guys and Lahoud's people, the mukhabarat, those guys will get nasty. The whole cumulative effect is the intimidation of the opposition and the emasculation of the crowds.

It will all be used to push the opposition to either split, or work with the Lahoud government, and essentially accept the fact that the redeployment is all that Bashar is willing to do, and he will not risk appearing any weaker. I think he told as much to the Arabs which is why their reaction to the speech has been a lot more muzzled than say the US or France. I think they'll be telling jumblat just as much as well. Basically, that you have a choice of him incinerating the country, or working with him and not pushing him, or humiliating him any further.

Here's where the opposition's role ends, in the sense that they will be limited now. Here's where the US and France should really step up. How, as Lee Smith said, is the question. Crippling sanctions? Strikes? What can they do? That is of course assuming that they too won't split now seeing that the opposition and the crowds will be silenced (unless the crowds decide to actually duke it out, which will be a spectacle that reflects badly on Syria, not that that guarantees more pressure, as opposed to say, appeasement). So if the crowds are silenced, the opposition limited, the question will be whether Europe will say, ok we'll just have to "engage" now.

I don't know. Let's hope the US and France really put the squeeze on now.