Sunday, October 23, 2005

Syria is being Set Up to Fail: A Leaked Letter from Washington

Here is a most extraordinary letter from Syria's Ambassador in Washington Imad Mustapha to Congresswoman Sue Kelly, which has come into my possession. It explains how the American Administration has been stonewalling Syrian cooperation on a host of issues. It explains how Syria is being set up to fail so that the US can isolate it and carry out a process of regime-change at the expense of Iraqi stability and the lives of American soldiers and Iraqi civilians. It explains how the US administration's policy of forcing regime change in Syria is trumping the need to save lives in Iraq.

I also have the letter written by Congresswoman Sue Kelly, and signed by 100 fellow congressmen, which was originally sent to Ambassador Mustapha on Sept. 30, 2005 and which elicited this reply. It is short and reiterates the usual administration complaints about the lack of Syrian cooperation with the war on terror and effort to stabilize Iraq. I have not had the time to type it in - but it is a demonstration of the US government's failure to appreciate how it is being railroaded by the administration into a confrontation with Syria. One must read Imad Mustapha's response, copied here, to appreciate just how the railroading is taking place.

For over a year Syria has been trying to cooperate with the West on the Iraq border, on the issue of terrorism finance, on the issue of stopping Jihadists from getting into Syria, on intelligence sharing, and on stabilizing Iraq.

Washington has consistently refused to take "Yes" as an answer. Why? The only credible reason is because Washington wants regime change in Syria. The US administration is sacrificing American soldiers in Iraq in order to carry out its program of "reforming the Greater Middle East." Two US policies are clashing head to head - the one is stabilizing Iraq and the other is the reform of the greater Middle East. President Bush is placing his democracy policy over his Iraq policy. This is costing American and Iraqi lives.

The world press has failed to get this story, although it has been staring them in the face for months. Human rights activists in Syria have documented for a long time how Syria is arresting Islamists, cracking down on Syrians who go to Iraq to fight by arresting their family members and jailing the fighters when they return from Iraq. Read Razan Zeitouneh's story about Syria's "Preemptive War" against Islamists here. The Syrian secret police have been terrorizing would be terrorists in Syria for many months now. The US has cut off all intelligence sharing with Syria despite repeated Syrian attempts to cooperate on this most important issue. Rumsfeld refused a Syria delegation of top border officials permission to meet with their Iraq and American counterparts just two months ago. Read the story here.

The Letter (I have highlighted several sentences in bold below.)

The Honorable Congresswoman Sue Kelly
2182 Rayburn House Office Building
Washington, DC 20515

October 5, 2005
Dear Congresswoman Kelly:

Let me start by expressing my deep appreciation for your letter dated September 30, 2005, co-signed by your colleagues, which I received from your office.

Notwithstanding the disturbing and disappointing content of this letter, I feel grateful for it has given me and my country the chance to engage and respond to the grave issues raised. This is what I would expect from an honorable body of representatives who believe that there is still room for engagement and dialogue. This is something Syria has repeatedly called for and, unfortunately, was repeatedly denied.

Let me start by reiterating my country’s position: Syria has continually and repeatedly called for the Americans and Iraqis to engage with their Syrian counterparts. This is necessary in order to solve the problems in Iraq. And Syria has stated, in no uncertain terms, that our will to assist in this situation illustrates not only our hopes for a unified and free Iraq but also the dire consequences turmoil in Iraq will pose for Syrian interests.

Syria has the political will to engage with the US towards finding a solution to the on-going violence and bloodshed in Iraq. It is a detriment to out national security and interests to see Iraq being further destabilized, and our concern for Iraq’s territorial integrity is paramount. We have asked the US Administration time and again to stop this public media campaign against Syria, and told the Administration that it is both unfair and unsubstantiated. Furthermore, we have spared no means to communicate to this Administration our willingness to mutually address all matters of concern to the US. Needless to say, all our initiatives to engage with the US have failed, and the US Administration seems adamant on following a path of public accusations and no direct engagement.

Before providing you and your honorable colleagues with a detailed reply to all the points raised in your letter let me start by submitting to you the following tow suggestions:

1. The government of Syria is willing to invite a bi-partisan congressional delegation for a working visit to Syria in which the honorable members would explore in depth all matters related to the Iraqi issue. This will allow the members of the delegation to witness for themselves what Syria is and has been doing to address the issues discussed in your letter, as well as provide an opportunity to discuss all possible actions with leading Syrian governmental officials. Syria pledges full cooperation with this delegation. We are willing to hear from you, listen to your suggestions, and upon verifying our willingness to engage we expect your assistance in convincing the US Administration that its current policy towards Syria is neither useful nor constructive. We would like the message reiterated that it is in the best interest of both countries to work together and it is counterproductive to continue creating these conditions of hostility and animosity.

2. In recognition of the efforts you might undertake in visiting Syria and helping both countries move forward toward cooperation and joint action, Syria is willing to immediately resume its intelligence and security cooperation with the relevant US agencies. This cooperation was initiated in the aftermath of the tragic events of September 11, and was suspended early this year. Wee expect the US Administration to acknowledge Syria’s cooperation and halt its campaign of accusations and rhetoric in return for our security and intelligence cooperation.

As for the points mentioned in your letter, allow me to address each point in detail to clarify our position and provide the honorable members with a different perspective on these important issues.

1. On Syria’s role as a source of support for terrorism and other activities aimed at destabilizing efforts to build a peaceful and democratic Iraq

A peaceful and stable Iraq holds as much, if not more significance for Syria as any other nation in the region or across the Atlantic. The Syrian mosaic of citizens, in which a wide variety of ethnicities and religious groups live side by side, closely resembles Iraqi society and in fact, may be even more divers. Consequently, the sectarian strife arising in Iraq could spread across the border and result in fatality tearing at the fabric of Syrian society. This situation causes the Syrian government great concern ad compels us to work diligently to help bring peace and stability back to Iraq for the future of its citizens as well as our own.

Syria has always supported the e political process in Iraq. One example of this was during the Iraqi elections when we encouraged the large Iraqi expatriate community in Syria to vote, and proved them with all means necessary to enable them to successfully participate in the Iraqi political process. This is just one example among many others that went unnoticed here in the US, and wee completely ignored by US officials.

Syria does not support the terrorism in Iraq; we have very little influence on the political developments that are taking place there. However, if the US Administration has evidence to the contrary, Syria is willing to work with the Administration and investigate these allegations. This is the only way to put an end to the alleged Syrian support of the insurgency in Iraq.

2. On Border Control

The argument that the Syrian government allows infiltrators into Iraq holds no truth in any regard whatsoever. The facts on the ground along the Syrian-Iraqi border illustrate how diligently Syria has worked to control its side of the border with Iraq. We have increased our border troops from a few hundred to 10,000 in the past two years; built sand barriers, which Syria has recently raised to 12 feet along more than 210 kilometers of the border, installed barbed wires, some of which are double-layered: and erected many Syrian military outposts, numbering in total approximately 540, deployed approximately every 400 meters or 3 kilometers depending on the sensitivity of the area. As a result of these efforts, Syria has captured over 1,500 individuals trying to cross the border and handed them over to the authorities of their country of origin or placed them in prison.

If infiltration continues, it is done despite all our efforts to stop this illegal movement of people occurring without our consent. Moreover, Syria has continually and repeatedly called for the Americans and Iraqis to engage with their Syrian counterparts on this issue because Syria cannot seal this border alone and needs cooperation from the American and Iraqi side. False allegations against Syria will not solve this problem but rather only cooperation, from both sides, can achieve the important goal of sealing this border.

To illustrate my point with specifics, General Abizaid, on April 14, 2005, said, “We’ve got, oh, roughly 10,600 – give or take – prisoners. I think there are like 357, 358, something like that, third-country national, some of whom have been in Iraq for many, many years… I mean, it’s like – the last time I checked, 50 (from Saudi Arabia) and 52 (from Syria)… and 49 (from Iran).” Moreover, the Center for Strategic and International Studies has said that the insurgency numbers about 30,000 individuals with a foreign component of 4-10%. This means that the foreign element in the insurgency numbers from about 1,500-3,000 individuals. Putting these numbers together and after some simple mathematical calculations we find that the total number of individuals which have come from Syria amounts to about 144, equaling 0.5% of the insurgency. With these facts in mind, I would like to remind you that Syria has imprisoned about 1,500individuals trying to infiltrate the Syrian-Iraqi border, amounting to 10 times the number of those that reached Iraq, which illustrates how diligently we are working to seal this border.

In addition, thee US-based Center for Strategic and International Studies released a report about “Saudi Militants” in Iraq stating that the Syrians have “been too forceful in their crackdown on Saudis” entering Syria some of which are en route to Iraq, while others come as tourists. We argue that we have been forceful on all those using Syria as a transit to Iraq, including Saudis.

3. ON the Visa policy for Arab citizens

The allegations concerning the Visa policies in Syria are a classic example of how the US Administration merely looks for pretexts to criticize Syria with a lack of substantial evidence. The fact that Syria has arrested and handed over hundreds of suspects arriving at Syrian entry points is always ignored by the US officials. The Saudi and Jordanian press have been very critical of the Syrian authorities for their stern approach in dealing with their citizens arriving in Syria, being arrested and extradited for merely suspecting that these citizens might have extremist tendencies.

The question that should be addressed to the US Administration is the following: Did you once try to communicate any sort of intelligence about suspected Jihadists planning to arrive in Syria, which the Syrian authorities failed to act on? Did this happen at least once? Our records do not show that such communication has ever occurred.

Our embassies throughout the whole world offer Visas within an hour of the Visa application. We do not have the means of verifying the information submitted in the Visa application form, and our diplomatic missions are incapable of investigating all individuals who request an entry Visa to Syria. However, our intelligence agencies have a wealth of information about fundamentalist extremists. When such individuals arrive in Syria, they are immediately handled by the Syrian authorities. You can verify this with other Arab countries to whom we have extradited hundreds of their citizens upon arrest at Syrian border checkpoints.

Once again, this would not have been an issue had the US Administration been willing to cooperate and engage with Syria. Unfortunately, while the lack of engagement continues to be the norm, the US Administration uses such pretexts to criticize Syria, capitalizing on the fact that few individuals have any knowledge of Syrians policies and positions.

4. On the repatriation of Iraqi assets

Syria has transferred a sum of $262 million to the Iraqi Government, which is the total amount of the Iraqi frozen assets in the Commercial Bank of Syria. In regards to the $580 million mentioned in your letter, this amount was paid to the Syrian private businesses to honor contracts and deals between Iraqi and Syrian parties prior to the war. All these contracts are documented at the Syrian Ministry of Finance and the Federation of Syrian Iraqi officials to visit, investigate and check these documents with full transparency. If the Iraqi officials conclude with doubts about the authenticity of these contracts and financial obligations, Syria will take immediate action to the satisfaction of the Iraqi government.

5. On the claim that former Iraqi regime elements funds are in Syria

Syria received a team of US Treasury inspectors to visit the Commercial Bank of Syria for as long as they deemed fit, and had access to whatever information they required. We thought that this openness and transparency would put an end to these unsubstantiated accusations. On the one hand, thee team left Syria satisfied that our banks were fully cooperating with the US on this particular issue. ON the other hand, the US Treasury Department never acknowledged our cooperation, and continued to repeat the same allegations. Once more we invite the US treasury officials to talk to Syria, not talk past Syria about these accusations. If US officials have acquired new information regarding these funds, Syria welcomes the opportunity to re-examine the issue and fully investigate it in cooperation with the US officials.

6. On Financing Terrorism


Syria has repeatedly informed the US Treasury Department officials that wee are keen on closely cooperating with the US Treasury Department on issues of money laundering and terrorism financing. Syria, has modified all its by-laws and regulations in accordance with recommendations Syria has received fro the US Treasury Department officials. Syria not only did this, but also informed the US Treasury Department that we are willing to do whatever action may be required in the future, if the need arises. This was never publicly acknowledged by the US Treasury Department; on the contrary, we continue to hear the same accusations about cash flow through the borders.

Actually, based on the recommendations of the US Treasury Department, Syria has joined a number of groups including MENA-FATF (Middle East & North Africa Financial Action Task Force), as well as establishing special units of the Syrian Customs on all international borders to combat terrorism financing and money laundering.

It might surprise you to know that Syria’s efforts to curb cash flows into Iraq and elsewhere were faced by obstacles created by the US Administration. Our efforts to eliminate cash dealings and substitute the cas-based system with a credit card system where all financial transactions can be electronically monitored and traced were stalled by the US imposed sanctions on Syria that continue to prevent us from modernizing our banking infrastructure. I hope you will use your good office to convince the US Treasury Department that helping Syria modernize its banking system will actually help the US win its global war against terrorism.

7. Lebanon (Don’t want to copy it all out. It is outdated anyway.)

8. On Sanctions against Syria

When you contemplate imposing new sanctions against the Syrian banking system, I hope you will keep in mind that the suffocation and eventual crash of this system will only benefit illegal transactions, black marketers and money traffickers. Syria has diligently worked hard on bringing its banking systems to world class standards, and to ensure transparency and the security of all financial transactions. Threats of further sanctions will have a negative impact on Syria’s efforts to achieve what the US Administration has repeatedly asked Syria to do, and what we have been working hard on achieving.

In addition, I hope that the honorable members would recall that ten years of economic sanctions on Iraq only led to the impoverishment of the Iraqi people, and the destruction of Iraq’s national infrastructure. Syria invites you to use diplomacy and engagement, no threats and sanctions to try and find solutions for our already troubled region. Please do remember, that if you are being told by the US Administration that they have “credible evidence” that Syria is doing this or not doing that; the same sort of credible intelligence was used in thee past as a pretext to launch war on another Arab country. We hope that this kind of mistake will not be repeated for the same of Syria, the Middle East and the entire world.

We firmly believe that you can play a great role in helping bring the US and Syria to a better understanding and a higher level of cooperation. On our behalf, this is what we are looking for, and this is what we hope the future will hold for both our countries,

Yours Sincerely,

Imad Moustapha, PhD.
Ambassador of the Syria to the United States

106 Comments:

At 10/23/2005 06:28:00 AM, Blogger Mustapha said...

This post has been removed by a blog administrator.

 
At 10/23/2005 06:32:00 AM, Blogger Mustapha said...

Josh,

I think the Syrians deserve the fix they're in because they insist on winning the hearts and minds of the American administration IN SECRET.

If the Syrian case is that strong, why is the whole world not convinced?

Why do the Syrians secretly beg for American understanding while publicly demonizing everyone else in the Arab world just for asking the US for assistance?

why are all the Lebanese deep down inside waiting for the demise of the Syrian regime?

Your Apologism for the Syrian regime is making me sick.

Mustapha
The Beirut Spring

 
At 10/23/2005 06:58:00 AM, Blogger JoseyWales said...

I am with Mustapha.

Hypocrisy: Kiss-ass in private and attack US imperialism in public.

Gee a bit like "Assad bi Lebnane, Arnab bil Joulane".

We should believe this guy cuz he works for Sharaa who "never lies" according to his spokesman. Not that there is much new here.

Let's all remember also, re: free and independent Iraq. Syria worked tirelessly for the same "freedom and independence" in Lebanon.

That sick regime is beyond redemption, and you Josh are a sycophant at best.

 
At 10/23/2005 07:12:00 AM, Blogger Joseph ALi Mohammed said...

I am with Mustapha too.

Just look at the weekly articles of the regime's cat, Butheina Shabaan in the daily Arab newpaper, Asharqalawsat.com where in each of her articles for the past three years she concentates on attacking the Evil America. She speaks with a double tongue criticising America for things her regime is doing in terms of human rights for example, and in every other field of subjects.


This regime must go, however, I am at a loss of what will happen next after its fall. I do not desire few years of criminal sanctions before the glorious liberation.

JAM

 
At 10/23/2005 07:14:00 AM, Blogger Abu Kais said...

Josh, I think you should post the part on Lebanon.

There are a lot of unsubstantiated assertions in the introductory paragraphs of this post.

"For over a year Syria has been trying to cooperate with the West on the Iraq border, on the issue of terrorism finance, on the issue of stopping Jihadists from getting into Syria, on intelligence sharing, and on stabilizing Iraq. "

For over a year (some would say a lot more), Syria has been going out of its way to assassinate and destabilize an entire country, Lebanon. I don't have access to the kind of intelligence that the US administration uses to justify their claims about lack of Syrian cooperation on Iraq. But if that cooperation is anything like the cooperation they are offering the Mehlis team , then no number of deceptively logical arguments will help Syria climb out of the rut they pushed themselves into.

I will not defend the US administration. I think the war on Iraq was illegal, and I think Bush should have been impeached for lying to the American people. But is the Syrian regime a model of truth and transparency? Should I take this letter at face value and believe that the regime is serious about supporting the political process in Iraq? This letter reminded me of the many duplicitous statements Ghazi Kanaan, Ghazali, and all the Syrian officials made on Lebanon.

And no, Lebanon cannot be reduced into a tool to "isolate" Syria. I really think you should post the part that deals with Lebanon.

 
At 10/23/2005 07:48:00 AM, Blogger Alex said...

So, the bloody Baath regime, the so-called last bulwark against "evil Imperialism & Zionism" is begging on its kneels. However, this disgusting regime needs to climb-down its hypocritical rhetoric in the Syrian street, while Baath's top leaders are kissing America's Ass.

 
At 10/23/2005 10:04:00 AM, Blogger Innocent_Criminal said...

You guys whine like little girls and do not appreciate a balanced analysis because, just like the pro-Baath masses, you see what you want to see.

Can anyone with their right mind actually believe that the Americans are putting the Lebanese, Syrian, Iraqi people’s well-being as a priority? They don’t want to reform the Greater Middle East, they want to show them who is boss and control the whole lot. My disgust with you people is not that you hate the regime, because I totally appreciate that as your right. But this government is no worse than any other in the region and Josh’s hypocrisy is minusculed by yours. Syria has to work with the US because only a moron wouldn’t. Its not hypocrisy but politics 101 and your sad excuse of a slur is as pitiful as your arguments. And how dare we support any hostile action against Syria to bring “democracy” by a power that calls the Saudi or Jordanian circus show a move toward democracy?

I also disagree with josh on this comment “The world press has failed to get this story, although it has been staring them in the face for months” not at all, they are fully aware of it but they are playing ball with Washington just like they did on the Iraq game. Freedom of the press my ass…

Don’t get me wrong, there is no doubt that Syria has done a lot of wrongs, especially in Lebanon. But what we see now is NOT a move to change the system for the better but for the worse. What we see now is not a hunt for the “Haqiqa” but a strategic demolishing of any anti-US policy in the Middle East. Emerging players such as Hariri Jr. will need to play the game better, the west can only protect the man for so long but Syria will always be his neighbor.

 
At 10/23/2005 10:14:00 AM, Blogger ugarit said...

What a world we live in.

The Bush gang illegally attacks a sovereign country kills hundreds of thousands in that country and hardly can keep the "peace" there due to lack of security and is not accused by the UN or Britain of any wrong doing!

Syria seems to be accused of Hariri's assassination because it was the occupier and controlled the security structure there. Using that logic then the US is culpable of the bombings going on in Iraq because it occupies Iraq.

Both Syria and the US should not occupy any other country.

 
At 10/23/2005 10:19:00 AM, Blogger Anton Efendi said...

If I'm not mistaken, Tarek just threatened Saad Hariri! The apples don't fall far from the tree. The rest of his argument, as usual, is useless.

 
At 10/23/2005 10:21:00 AM, Blogger EHSANI2 said...

Josh,

What did you exactly expect The Syrian Ambassador to say? He is doing his job and trying to defend the indefensible.

You opine that the letter "explains how the American Administration has been stonewalling Syrian cooperation on a host of issues. It explains how Syria is being set to fail...etc"

When you assume the leadership of 18 million people, your prime responsibilty is to anticipate the way the winds are blowing and to navigate your boat safely to dock. Afterall, this is the least of what your passengers expect of you.

I would encourage everyone to start by reading an article on the so-called Patron saint of Neoconservatives.
It can be found on http://newyorkmetro.com/nymetro/news/people/features/12353.
Once you read it, you will realize what the Arabs are fighting against. Namely, an awesome group of powerful financiers and power brokers who have made their way all the way up to the upper echelons of US policy making.

Your own excellent posting on Oct 21 by Moshe Ma'oz is also a must read.

Once you read both articles above, you will realize the astonishing failure of Bashar to read the tea leaves and predict the direction of the winds against his ship.

Perhaps most telling is a quote by al-Baath newspaper days after W.Bush assumed power:

"Bush Jr. would not let Jews who comprise only 1% of the U.S. population continue to be the political decision makers in the superpower that controls the World today"

HOW WRONG AND IDIOTIC CAN ONE BE?

Bashar, his Foreign Minister Genious and all his Baath party advisors were on the wrong side of history from day one.

Josh, Of course Syria has been set up by an incrhedibly powerful machine that has won the most powerful man's heart and ear. The most relevant question is what has the Syrian leader done about it?

1- Attack the Jews of the world in front of the Pope.
2- Hail every suicide bomber during the Intifada
3- Strengthen ties with axis of evil countries like Iran and N.korea
4- Vehemently oppose the U.S Invasion and occupation of Iraq and publicly declare the U.S actions have served Israeli strategic interests (Bush really like that!)
5- Rather than abide by the Syrian accountability Act that calls for non-intereference in Lebanese Affairs, KILL the most important political figure in that country's modern history.

Mr. Landis, if you took the time to read the above articles and really thought about it, you will surely start to wonder how, Bashar has actually been allowed to survive as long as he has. For a leader to get it so wrong, he surely does not derserve your or anyone else's support

 
At 10/23/2005 10:24:00 AM, Blogger ugarit said...

ANOTHER DODGY DOSSIER: THE MEHLIS REPORT ON THE HARIRI ASSASSINATION
http://www.indybay.org/news/2005/10/1776964.php

 
At 10/23/2005 10:34:00 AM, Blogger ugarit said...

When is the America Accountability Law going to be passed? The US is far more criminal in its foreign policy than Syria ever has been. Let's just add up the number of civilians killed by the US since WWII and then compare that to Syria's record.

US: 3million+ in indo-china
etc.

 
At 10/23/2005 10:49:00 AM, Blogger Lebanon Divided said...

The US is going to sanction Syria into a war.

 
At 10/23/2005 10:58:00 AM, Blogger EHSANI2 said...

Ugarit,

Stop wasting your energy on highlighting "how unfair and hypocritical the world is".

In life, you have to deal with the hand you are dealth with. You cannot expect your opponents to plan for the next 100 years, reach the most powerful decision makers in the world, execute and implement their strategic policies while you are asleep at the wheel and busy crying "this is unfair"

Guess what? Who said life is fair?
Your job is to bet on the winning horse not cry foul when your horse comes last time and again

 
At 10/23/2005 11:31:00 AM, Blogger ugarit said...

I guess you're saying that one should bet on the winning horse and then try to push the jocky over when one gets the chance.

 
At 10/23/2005 11:34:00 AM, Blogger madmax said...

angry Lebanese

Joshua, an advice to you, you're a westerner living in Damascus and writing on the internet. Be careful of the mokhabarat. They will use you and spit you out at any time. It's like living with a pitbull. He's nice to you and protects you. But he might panic out of the blue and attack you.

It's really futile trying to prove that the US wants the Syrian regime changed. Off course they want it changed!

It's like making the argument that the American ambassador talked Saddam into invading Kuwait.

Could be true.. probably an urban legend. But even if it's true, it's irrelevant.

Let's stop worrying about what the Americans are doing to protect themselves, because they are protecting their own people. And worry about what the Syrian government is doing to protect its own people, because that is their responsibility. And because that's one thing that Assad and company can control. They can't control the actions of the US government. They can control only their own.

Syrian Assad is still making remarks on CNN about the "stupidity" of Americans in invading Iraq. Is that a statement of a President of a country who wants to make friends with the US? Is that the statement of a President who is "cooperating"?

As the American government looks after its own people's interests, the Syrian government has the responsibility to do the same.

The problem is the Syrian government is still acting as if they were living 50 years ago. A world that had no internet, no forms of communication, a world where they controled their information flow.

They think that if they put an additional soldier on the Syrian-Iraqi border or change a law in their banking system, that's enough to be considered "cooperation".. They think they could assassinate Hariri (who is known to be having anti-Syrian pro-Saudi) and they could still say that they're "cooperating". They think that they could harbor anti-Abbas palestinian groups that carry out operations in Israel and say that they are "cooperating".

I am puzzled. Are they kidding themselves? or are they kidding their own people?

Either way, the Assad government's fate is that of Saddam. It might not be today, this month or this year. But anyone who can use common sense and strategic thinking can see that Assad and Company will not age gracefully. Let's hope he doesn't drag his innocent people in the process.

 
At 10/23/2005 11:55:00 AM, Blogger Innocent_Criminal said...

No Tony as (almost) always you are mistaken. It was an advice not a veiled threat; he is not pacing himself in a mature way. The man is young but he shouldn’t be so naïve as to think that he is an international political power-house, he seems too high from the pep talk and glamour show the Americans gave him in NYC. I’d be even more pissed if my dad was assassinated but he is going about it with no political class, just plain Bush-like howls of revenge. He is not even consulting his own team before making requests on international television.

As for your later comment I’d like to say: look who is talking anyways, you're the last to talk about useless arguments and accusations since half of your blog is based on critiquing Cole and regurgitating right-wing propaganda. If he is such a moron what does it make you when you’re clearly obsessed with the man?

Back to the main topic, war is out of the question for now as Josh mentioned, but I also feel its way too late for a deal to come through. Even if there is talk of such a thing the list from Washington will be intentionally impossible to fulfill. So Syria, if Europe will play along, is going to become the new Iran. And for all of you anti-Assad’s out there please note that this will not hurt his position at home. The Syrians went through this ordeal before in the 80’s and even though I admit it’s a totally different generation and Hafez Al-Assad is not around. There will not be a single individual who will be able to stand up as a potential replacement. Even if an extreme scenario such as the one the right-wing nut job Bill O’Rilley painted here http://mediamatters.org/items/200510040005 would occur it will not mean a regime change.

Since a deal with Washington is impossible to make, the next thing we will see is attempts by Damascus to sway the regional and some international players into its camp. But since that requires pro-activeness, a trait Damascus has lacked for years, I doubt it anything serious will materialize.

 
At 10/23/2005 01:29:00 PM, Blogger Nur-al-Cubicle said...

This is interesting...L'Orient Le Jour reports via Der Spiegel that certain UN delegations and international jurists are not buying any deposition statement from Zuhair al-Saddiq, arrested in France. Al-Saddiq, arrested twice for for fraud and embezzlement, is not a reliable witness, they say.

The British UN delegation seems to have leaked al-Saddiq's statement, deleted from the original Mehlis Report, fingering Maher al-Assad and Assef Shawkat (among others) of plotting the assassination to influence the "jury". It was apparently a bad move and may backfire.

I think nothing will be done on the 25th other than to postpone any action until after 15 December. The Security Council must also ponder the risks of polarization in Lebanon, worsening the crisis there.

 
At 10/23/2005 01:32:00 PM, Blogger Nur-al-Cubicle said...

What we see now is not a hunt for the “Haqiqa” but a strategic demolishing of any anti-US policy in the Middle East. Emerging players such as Hariri Jr. will need to play the game better, the west can only protect the man for so long but Syria will always be his neighbor.

Word, criminal!

 
At 10/23/2005 01:42:00 PM, Blogger Vox Populi - Agent Provocateur said...

This post has been removed by a blog administrator.

 
At 10/23/2005 02:07:00 PM, Blogger Vox Populi - Agent Provocateur said...

The only credible reason is because Washington wants regime change in Syria. The US administration is sacrificing American soldiers in Iraq in order to carry out its program of "reforming the Greater Middle East."

Oh please Josh, don’t become an apologist for this regime. Your views are very-narrow minded. The US government is trying to reform the Middle East because thousands of US citizens died on 9-11. It’s the duty of any government to protect its citizens and find against the Islamist disease. It’s the duty of the US, as the world’s (self-appointed) peacekeeper, to reform the Middle East. I know that simple-minded Syrians despise American policies, but they need to know that without these policies, the regime will last forever. Change cannot and will not come from the inside only.

You’re taking the regime’s position as granted, without questioning it. Syria may have taken some actions against terrorism, but it’s only because it is trying to find its way out of Hariri’s assassination. It’s still harbouring the leader of the Iraqi ‘resistance’. In which country were Saddam’s nephew and Saddam’s half-brother living before they were arrested? Was it Zimbabwe? Was it Nicaragua? Wrong, it was Syria. Syria supported the insurgency from Day 1, and even before that. Now it’s trying to play that card to save its own ass.

The US are interested in keeping this regime, but only if Syria goes through serious reforms. Cooperation on the Iraq file is not enough and it is not the only issue at stake here. The regime must also make concession on the interior front by implementing reforms. The regime must renounce “its core ideology of Arabism” as you funnily put it – in other words, stop supporting terrorist organizations in the region and interfering with its neighbours. The US are interested in real changes only, they are not interested in palliative measures.

And I love the fact that you removed the part of the letter that was about Lebanon. I bet that it was so ridiculous that you chose to remove it because it undermined the credibility of the whole letter.

 
At 10/23/2005 02:13:00 PM, Blogger Innocent_Criminal said...

Vox,

I am starting to lose respect for you man. "the US government is trying to reform the Middle East because thousands of US citizens died on 9-11. It’s the duty of any government to protect its citizens against the Islamist threat, and it’s the duty of the US, as the world’s peacekeeper, to reform the Middle East."

Are you fu%$ing kidding me? The only thing scarier and more revolting than your words is my terrorizing fear that you actually believe this crap. Your brain is so entrenched with this good vs. evil Americana garbage you can’t see straight. There are no good guys in this game there is the lesser of two evils. I know it’s hard for people like you but, when you mock the support of “resistance” parties please remember who their fucking counter-parts on the other team are. They are in no way better when it comes to committing terrorist acts. Syria in its anti-Israeli policy has tried to play the cards it has been dealt in this struggle/war. And so what if it supported the insurgency? At least they have the balls to cross the Americans when they know Washington is out to get them, instead of bending over and handing them a lubricant bottle like other countries in the regions love to do. And do we have to remind you that the invasion of Iraq was WRONG? Or has fox news done such a good job brainwashing you?

 
At 10/23/2005 02:24:00 PM, Blogger Joseph ALi Mohammed said...

Vox said this:

Oh please Josh, don’t become an apologist for this regime. Your views are very-narrow minded. The US government is trying to reform the Middle East because thousands of US citizens died on 9-11


Hahah, what are you talking about Vox?

Any child knows that this is a deception. Why not go after the Saudis and democratize them first if that is what the real goal of the US is? It was 19 Saudis not Syrians you dummy!

The US went to Afghanistan to fight those "responsible" for 911. Then, they went back to accomplish what they were set to do in the first place since the sanctions of 1991 on Iraq, and created the delusion of wanting to find WMDs which was proven to be a lie. To justify their lie, they then invented this "democratization" of Iraq trick, then expanded it to the ME as a whole. Is Syria the most Islamic state in the region? Or is it where the fucking Wahabis are born and formed? Why not democratize Saudi arabia, or Egypt, or Moroco, or Lybia, or Kuwait, or all other fucking Arab states where despotism is no less than in Syria?


Go find yourself some real books to educate yourself, and stop being an ignorant maronite who thinks that he is superior to all those surrounding him because he is a "christian", and laughs at them because they are Muslims, as I had known them to be!

JAM

 
At 10/23/2005 02:32:00 PM, Blogger Joseph ALi Mohammed said...

This post has been removed by a blog administrator.

 
At 10/23/2005 02:47:00 PM, Blogger JoseyWales said...

Syria is being Set Up to Fail

Just dawned on me.

BWAHAHHAAAAAAAAA

Syria failed a long time ago, with its first coup d'etat.

 
At 10/23/2005 02:57:00 PM, Blogger Joseph ALi Mohammed said...

JoseyWales:


You mentioned the first coup d'etat!

That is very interesting! Do you even know when that first coup d'etat took place? Who did it? Who pushed for it?

If you do not know that, let me remind you! Syria was the first democratic state in the so called 3rd world countries. 3 world meant not Western, Not Eastern, but third. There was an elected parliment in Syria up until the US Embassy in Syria played with the minds of a crazy officer, Husni Al Zaim and pushed him to initiate that cup. This was acknoledged with the freedom information act in 1975 at Ford's presidency that it was the CIA who was responsible for that coup.

So, it was the US the real responsible factor in this you are calling "failed state".

But, in this thread, Joshua Landis was not talking about a failed state. He is talking about seting Syria to fail vis a vis the US demands, meaning that the US does not really want Syria to accomdate its demands, and it is setting it to fail in that regard.

I wonder where you are from!

JAM

 
At 10/23/2005 03:03:00 PM, Blogger Joseph ALi Mohammed said...

This post has been removed by a blog administrator.

 
At 10/23/2005 03:09:00 PM, Blogger EHSANI2 said...

Gentlemen!
Is this about Christians versus Moslems?

Vox Populi, When you say "it is the duty of any government to protect its citizens and fight against Islamist diseas", You must realize that you are insulting the Muslim Arabs who have nothing to do with the Bin Laden ideology that the US indeed has identified as the main risk to its and Israel's national security.

I again encourage you to read the New Yorker magazine story about how the most powerful people in the world have influenced US policy making. Their agenda has been put in place way before Sep 11th. It was the idiotic miscalculation of Bin Laden that presented this pwerful group a golden opportunity to execute their long held dreams of :
1- Pacifying every Middle Eastern country with potential to hurt the State of Israel from ever being able to pose any kind of threat. The code word here is "spread democracy in the Middle East". Their thinking goes, democracies don't spend their 4-6 years in office attacking neighbors but work instead on lowering their Unemployment rates so they have a chance at being re-elected.
2- Once the central and rejectionist Governments of the Middle East are weakened enough, move to the next stage of having these weakened governments sign seperate peace treaties with the State of Israel.
3- Judea and Samaria (And possibly parts of the Golan) are non-negotiable
and are integral parts of the Biblical borders of Israel.

This train has already left the station. It will make it home under the noses and objections of the majority of people in the Middle East. Fair it not. The world favours the powerful and strategic thinkers. Regrettably, the Arabs have not acted like they belong to this latter group

 
At 10/23/2005 03:19:00 PM, Blogger ugarit said...

What the world needs is regime change in the United States not only Syria.

What the world needs is behavior change by the US.

The US is far more dangerous than Syria. Let's not forget that the US illegally attacked Iraq and killed hundreds of thousands of civilians and continues to occupy Iraq.

Syria is no longer occupying any country.

 
At 10/23/2005 04:04:00 PM, Blogger JoseyWales said...

Lighten up JAM,

It was a quip, I understand nuance.

And JAM, whoever was US Prez back then, let's impeach him or his descendants ASAP.

 
At 10/23/2005 04:05:00 PM, Blogger Vox Populi - Agent Provocateur said...

JAM, I was expecting this kind of reply and should have answered to your question in my initial comment, before you ask it.

The USA targeted the Iraqi regime because it was the only possible target at this point. True, Saudi Arabia is far more problematic then Iraq, but US policymakers must take reality into account and it happens that Saudi Arabia wasn't a possible target. But don't make any mistake about it, the war in Iraq is not about Iraq or any weapon of mass destruction. The 2003 war is about the ideological control of the Middle East. Will the Middle East evolve into a modern region or regress? Iraq will be used as a western outpost and will spread the democracy vaccine in the region. Vaccines take time to work but are necessary. After decades of immobilism, it’s about time that the world’s only superpower reacts to the disintegration of Arab societies.

There’s nothing idealistic or gratuitous here. The US wants something in exchange for this action. They need to save the Arab world from itself because of a selfish reason: on the long term, immobilism in the Middle East threatens the world’s political stability AND the oil supply. By helping the region, the US help themselves first, there’s nothing benevolent about this. The path that the Arab world is taking is a threat to world's peace. Arab regimes are a failure and this failure calls for external intervention - failed state lead to new Afghanistans and this will never happen again. The Syrian regime must comply with the US policies if it wants to survive; otherwise it is useless and must be isolated.

And finally, the US must not change its behavious, you don't deal with rogue state the way you deal with Switzerland.

Ehasani, I said 'Islamist' and not 'Muslim'. If you're not capable to distinguish between the two terms, then I shouldn't bother answering you. And I maintain what I said by the way: Islamism is a disease. It can spread or it can be cured.

 
At 10/23/2005 04:16:00 PM, Blogger Joseph ALi Mohammed said...

We all know the history of the State Failure of Afghanistan, and we all know who fought secularism in the Arab world and helped Saudis expand their version of Islam across Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, etc...and Afghanistan itself. The destabilization of Afghanistan and its islamization to the Saudi version did not happen because of Syria, or Iraq, or the secularists that were more powerful in these countries and lost to the Saudi influence. Assad himself was the product of compromise against secular Syria and he himself brought Islamism, Wahabi flavor to Syria, no one else. It was the Saudis and behind them America, of course.

JAM

 
At 10/23/2005 04:37:00 PM, Blogger shamee27 said...

We all know that the Alawi regime in Syria is the biggest American BUTT-LICKER and it's always been , let's don't forget that King Asad the first served the American polices in the region very well, and no one should be fooled by the anti-American slogan which the regime chanted all along.
The Americans would be very mistaken if they think that Syrians would be their close ally if the topple the alawi regime on the contrary Syrians in general and specifically the Sunnis would do their utter most to help the insurgent in Iraq and the Sunni triangle would find strategic depth inside Syrians.
Many Syrians are more than eager to go and fight the Americans if they were given half the chance.
the fall of the regime would give the ideal situation for this scenario and this is the biggest dilemma for Bush and his gang.

 
At 10/23/2005 04:51:00 PM, Blogger Joseph ALi Mohammed said...

To shamee27:

Somehow, Shamee, I sense that you really belong to the regime, not against it.

I truly said what I feel!

JAM

 
At 10/23/2005 04:58:00 PM, Blogger EHSANI2 said...

vox. I happen to agree with your thought process. Your distinction of Muslim verus Islamist is well taken

 
At 10/23/2005 05:15:00 PM, Blogger EHSANI2 said...

An interview with Brent Scowcroft is just released. According to him, ehe U.S. is engaged in a costly occupation of Iraq because the current administration has shunned opposing views on foreign policy. President Bush and Cheney have been too heavily influenced by scholars and theorists who argue the u.s. ust assert itself in the ME politics by military force, if necessary. Scowcroft goes on to say the movement to impose democracy quickly and by military action ignores "thousends of years of history". He singled out the "changed" views of cheney saying "I consider Cheney a good friend but Dick Cheney I don't know anymore"

 
At 10/23/2005 05:47:00 PM, Blogger adonis syria said...

Bravo JAM,shamee27 is obviously a guy from the syrian regime.

 
At 10/23/2005 06:22:00 PM, Blogger Vox Populi - Agent Provocateur said...

Whatever happened in the 80's in Afghanistan is history. It was another context and communism was the greatest threat. Spare me the 'Ben Laden works for the CIA' mantra. The world changes and you adapt to it. The fact that Ben Laden and the US worked together 20 years ago doesn't mean that the US should not fight against him and his alikes today. The Israelis contributed to the Hamas creation. Is the Hamas a Zionist organization? I don't think so.

 
At 10/23/2005 06:22:00 PM, Blogger Vox Populi - Agent Provocateur said...

Whatever happened in the 80's in Afghanistan is history. It was another context and communism was the greatest threat. Spare me the 'Ben Laden works for the CIA' mantra. The world changes and you adapt to it. The fact that Ben Laden and the US worked together 20 years ago doesn't mean that the US should not fight against him and his alikes today. The Israelis contributed to the Hamas creation. Is the Hamas a Zionist organization? I don't think so.

 
At 10/23/2005 07:25:00 PM, Blogger Joseph ALi Mohammed said...

Funny!

But they created the monster for us, and they are blaminhg us, don't you understand?

They are blaming us, and accusing us of being Ben Laden when they were the ones who created that sort of monster, and that creation was totally against our will, and our interests. Where is the principle of accountability?


Anyway, I don;t think that that bastard, Ben Laden is of any danger to America, but he is danger to us alone. He is nothing, and he did nothing, but serve the crazy in America.

 
At 10/23/2005 07:40:00 PM, Blogger DamasceneBlood said...

It's amazing how people buy the American lies, hook, line and sinker, while at the same time being 100% cynical to anything the evil Syrians say, even if it's true to some degree.

We all know that the 'intelligence' in America is now being fixed around the policy. The policy is clear: make the 'realm' safe for Israel, and get the oil pipes flowing to Haifa.

It's quite sad that we Arabs quibble over who's religion, or sect, or nationality, or 3asheera is better while the world is raping us slowly. We are fools, because we hold Nancy Ajram, Haifa', and Rubi so dear, but we consider our values an embarassment. Because we are watching Iraqis getting slaughtered by the US liberators everyday, while we live our emasculated, petty lives like normal.

We, the Arabs, are going to be remembered in the trashbin of civilization for being so naive, so cowardly, and so out of touch with reality.

 
At 10/23/2005 07:42:00 PM, Blogger EHSANI2 said...

"They created Ben Laden"?
If he was against "our will" and that he is a "danger to us alone", where are the Arab and Moslem masses protesting against his ideology and what he stands for? Why hasn't the Arab world denounced him and his facist losers? It is his stupidity and over-reach and not the crazy in America that is to blame

 
At 10/23/2005 08:09:00 PM, Blogger Ms Levantine said...

Josh,
You sound like a propaganda machine for the Syrian government.
Of course the Americans are not innocent but nor are the Syrians.
How many people did the Assad regime massacre in Syria alone?
The letter sounds too far fetched. Yes of course we all know that Bush wants to reform a greater Middle East. He was always open about it.
So what new facts have you divulged apart from your love for the Syrians?

 
At 10/23/2005 09:13:00 PM, Blogger norman said...

To all lebanese calling for sanctions against Syria ,remember that sanction aginst Syria will transfere to sanction against Lebanon,Syria will be justified to protect the interesr of it,s people.Remind Hareeri and the Lebanese that in 1976 it was Syria who proteced the minorities in Lebanon not France or the US ,calling Asad weak is astonishing,the US goverment is on a rampage Rusia china france are coward because they have the mean to stop america and they are doing nothing,to the detrement of the poor american people ,Syria should stay the course and continue it,s arabic stand ,the maronite christian does not represent the christian feeling in Syria or the Arab wourld actualy he is adescrase to every thing chriscian stand for america is attacking the arabs moslem and christians look what happend to them in Iraq after the american leberation ,they are in Syria seeking refuge in secular Syria.

 
At 10/23/2005 09:38:00 PM, Blogger Meme chose said...

It's absurd not to post the section about Lebanon. It's the one part which would allow us to contrast their assertions about themselves with what we now know about their behavior. Failing to do this blows the credibility of your whole post (if not your entire blog).

And btw, where you said 'illicited this reply' should surely be instead 'elicited this reply'.

 
At 10/23/2005 10:00:00 PM, Blogger mUN if said...

I think the Ambassador is doing a great service to a country that, while it has its share of thugs posing as rulers, he is trying to manage the change that is inevitable. He needs to be supported and encouraged to provide Syria with the correct dose of progressive and constructive criticism. So why is Syria now, all of the sudden, the bad guy? Does Syria have more political prisoners than Egypt? More than Saudi Arabia? Is freedome in Syria brutally more curtailed that Kuwait, Oman, Dubai, Jordan, or Morocco? The fact of the matter is that Syria is right on par with the rest of its peer countries in the region – sharing in authoritarian, regressive and often brutal policies. Draw a 1000-mile radius circle from Damascus, and you will find quite a uniform behavior throughout. (Ok, I will stop right at the borders of Austria, but please don’t tell me that Turkey has more freedom than Syria. If you think so, I promise I will never, ever, respond to you!)

Oh yes, there is that Lebanon ordeal that is unique to Syria. That "democratic" and “free” country of Lebanon. In fact it is so democratic and free, you'd need a visa to live in an area that does not readily recognize your last name as a “fit”. So democratic that you can cannot be hired to a government job unless you belong to certain sect. (Yes, it is true and it is lawful in democratic Lebanon – the only recognized marriage is the secular one!) A country that is legally ruled by clans, thugs, clergy, warlords, and officially-sanctioned mass murderers (have you heard of General Aoun? Meet the next President of Lebanon!) Yes, when it was convenient to the West, Syria was blessed to stay in Lebanon. But I must wonder, when was the last time Mr. Hariri had officially asked Syria to leave Lebanon? When was the last time you saw a clip for Hariri, on his own Future TV, publicly calling for Syria to pull out. When was it that the Lebanese press re-played the hugs and kisses of many Lebanese officials to Syrian thugs and begging them to stay?

Syria is just another player in the Middle East, no different (and cannot be different) than all of its neighbors - Israel included. They just happened to make a nice target for Washington's neocons now. I feel sorry for the Lebanese people. They are being misled, yet another time. As for Syria, it will survive it and it will soon transform itself into an organically-grown, homogenous democracy.

 
At 10/23/2005 10:03:00 PM, Blogger Vox Populi - Agent Provocateur said...

"Remind Hareeri and the Lebanese that in 1976 it was Syria who proteced the minorities in Lebanon not France or the US"

First of all, there's nothing but minorities in Lebanon. Second of all, Syria is hardly a threat to Lebanon now; the USSR is dead and if the Baath tries to send one solider in Lebanon, the international response will be quick.

 
At 10/23/2005 10:12:00 PM, Blogger norman said...

Vox ,Syria saved the lebanese christians when Pier Gemayel was calling 12 year old to arm to deffend lebanon against Arafat and Jumblat.

 
At 10/23/2005 10:30:00 PM, Blogger Vox Populi - Agent Provocateur said...

Well thank you, but who armed these Palestinians and closed the borders to make then-president Charles Helou sign the Cairo Agreement? Who sent the Saika to Damour?

Was it Santa Klaus?

 
At 10/24/2005 05:42:00 AM, Blogger Yabroud said...

www.consortiumnews.com/2005/102205.html

 
At 10/24/2005 08:29:00 AM, Blogger Marlin said...

Josh -

I am sorry to say that I have become extremely disappointed with how you have changed over the past few months. At this point in time you are really nothing more than a spokesperson for the Sytian government. You seem to have lost all ability to see that the Syrian government brought this entirely on themselves. It is not just about Syria and America. You seem to have lost all sight of what happened to Lebanon. As an American university professor I would have thought that you could have better understood what is at stake here.

 
At 10/24/2005 08:47:00 AM, Blogger Joseph ALi Mohammed said...

This post has been removed by a blog administrator.

 
At 10/24/2005 08:52:00 AM, Blogger Joseph ALi Mohammed said...

What is at stake here?

What at stake here is another attempt to utilise the UN to serve speicifc policies of Israel. The UN has become a tool for big power to dominate the Arab world, nothing else.

In my many previous posts, I was more against the regime of Assad than any one of you all. I am still against that regime, but I am not willing to sell my myself or sell the truth for political reasons. The truth should stand out regardless, and I do not believe that ends justify the means.

If the US is claiming democracy for the Syrian people, and the immediate release of all political prisoners from the Assad jails, then, I am with it 100%, but the US has committed murder against one of its friends, Hariri to use to achieve its political aims, and there is nothing in its political aims that calls for freedom for Syrians, or democracy for them. All it wants is to use the Hariri assassination to destroy Syria and its people and to impose sanctions on the people of Syria to weaken as it had done against the Iraqis for 13 years before it moved militarily. Desposts are all over the world, and especially among America's best friends in the Arab world, Saudi, Jordan, Khadafi, and so on...Why Syria, and Iraq? Fine, liberate Syria and Iraq, but to sanction the peoples and destroy them completly before "liberating" them is a crime only Evil powers think of doing and do.

Those names such as Marlin, and other seemingly Western names are in fact Lebanese seeking revenge against the Syrian people as they hate Syrians as well as they are hating the regime in Syria.

 
At 10/24/2005 08:55:00 AM, Blogger norman said...

The attack against Syria and Iraq is because they are the only secular arab states and the only theat to Israel ,anybody who can not see that is blind.

 
At 10/24/2005 09:37:00 AM, Blogger Nafdik said...

I agree that "Bin is CIA" is about history. But it illustrates 2 points:

1) The the US policymaking is often misguided in our region as it has a number of blind spots. These blindspots are a result of the religious background of the Americans themselves and from the disproportionate representation of Israeli interests.

2) That the Americans used deadly, terrorist Islamist ideology when the means justified and now they are claiming that it is evil and anybody who does not join them to fight is evil too. Hypocricy is a very ugly thing.

 
At 10/24/2005 09:50:00 AM, Blogger madmax said...

Saddam all over again

Birroo7 Biddam Nafdeek Ya Assad!

In this case, the Syrian people might have to put their actions where their mouth is. Because Assad will need all the protection he can get. And he'll use the Syrian people's "blood" and "souls" as human shields to protect himself.

 
At 10/24/2005 09:55:00 AM, Blogger Lebanon Divided said...

At Monday, October 24, 2005, Vox Populi said...
Well thank you, but who armed these Palestinians and closed the borders to make then-president Charles Helou sign the Cairo Agreement? Who sent the Saika to Damour?

Was it Santa Klaus?


Vox, people like Norman cannot understand that the Syrian Baathist regime used the PLO to overthrow King Hussein in Jordan in 1970. They cannot accept the fact that the Syrian Baath regrouped, trained and supported logistically and military the various Palestinian gunmen on Syrian territory from 1970 to 1975 and gradually allowed (and facilitated) their infiltration to Lebanon.

All their progammed mind could understand is that the Syrian Army went into Lebanon to save the Christians and they turn a blind eye on who actively participated in preparing for that war. This is what their Baathist leaders want after all.

It's like the US telling the Syrians: Look we have brought you democracy while Syria is being destroyed by US strikes.

 
At 10/24/2005 10:07:00 AM, Blogger EHSANI2 said...

If you read the attack on Saad Harriri by "Tishreen" today, you cannot help but conclude that it is impossible for the current Syrian Leadership to ever be able to strike the so-called deal that some utopians keep dreaming about. In some sense, a point of no return has been reached.

On another note, the WSJ editorial today carries a blistering attack on Bashar and the regime. Given its conservative credentials, it is a good barometer of the way W.House decision makers feel right now.

 
At 10/24/2005 10:12:00 AM, Blogger Lebanon Divided said...

At Monday, October 24, 2005, Joseph ALi Mohammed said...
What is at stake here?

What at stake here is another attempt to utilise the UN to serve speicifc policies of Israel. The UN has become a tool for big power to dominate the Arab world, nothing else.

In my many previous posts, I was more against the regime of Assad than any one of you all. I am still against that regime, but I am not willing to sell my myself or sell the truth for political reasons. The truth should stand out regardless, and I do not believe that ends justify the means.

If the US is claiming democracy for the Syrian people, and the immediate release of all political prisoners from the Assad jails, then, I am with it 100%, but the US has committed murder against one of its friends, Hariri to use to achieve its political aims, and there is nothing in its political aims that calls for freedom for Syrians, or democracy for them. All it wants is to use the Hariri assassination to destroy Syria and its people and to impose sanctions on the people of Syria to weaken as it had done against the Iraqis for 13 years before it moved militarily. Desposts are all over the world, and especially among America's best friends in the Arab world, Saudi, Jordan, Khadafi, and so on...Why Syria, and Iraq? Fine, liberate Syria and Iraq, but to sanction the peoples and destroy them completly before "liberating" them is a crime only Evil powers think of doing and do.

Those names such as Marlin, and other seemingly Western names are in fact Lebanese seeking revenge against the Syrian people as they hate Syrians as well as they are hating the regime in Syria.


Jam, maybe you understand now how much "peace-keeping" your Syrian Army has been doing since 1976 in Lebanon.

Why didn't the Syrian leadership just prevent the Palestinian guerilla from regrouping in Syria?

Why did the Baath support those Palestinians with weapons and money?

Why did they help them cross the border to neighbouring Lebanon?

Enough reasons to justify a 1976 Syrian intervention in Lebanon.

 
At 10/24/2005 10:19:00 AM, Blogger madmax said...

excerpt from today's WSJ article

There is always the risk that the downfall of the Assad family could lead to something even worse. We recall similar cautions offered against deposing Slobodan Milosevic in Yugoslavia and evicting Syrian troops from Lebanon. Yet it's hard to imagine a successor regime worse than one that assassinates foreign leaders, welcomes terrorists at the Damascus airport on their way into Iraq to kill American GIs, supports Hezbollah and imposes the tyranny of an Allawite minority on a majority Sunni country. With Saddam Hussein on trial, the fall of the Assad regime would be another act of regional hygiene and a lesson that you can't get away with murder.

 
At 10/24/2005 10:21:00 AM, Blogger Joseph ALi Mohammed said...

"""" Why didn't the Syrian leadership just prevent the Palestinian guerilla from regrouping in Syria?

Why did the Baath support those Palestinians with weapons and money?

Why did they help them cross the border to neighbouring Lebanon?

Enough reasons to justify a 1976 Syrian intervention in Lebanon.

"""



The answer is quite simple:

Ask America and France who supported Assad in ihis intervention in Lebanon, and forgot about their sons, the Christians of Lebanon for that long!

All of sudden, you believe that they are your friends agan! This is a mistake!

JAM

 
At 10/24/2005 11:02:00 AM, Blogger Lebanon Divided said...

The answer is quite simple:

Ask America and France who supported Assad in ihis intervention in Lebanon, and forgot about their sons, the Christians of Lebanon for that long!

All of sudden, you believe that they are your friends agan! This is a mistake!

JAM


I don't know who you think you're talking to but I believe that "friendships" on an international level are as fake as you and I are friends.

Now, thank you for pointing out that America and France supported Assad in his Lebanese adventure because if he wasn't so excited with the Greater Syria dream, then there wouldn't have been no intervention in Lebanon and no Franco-American support to speak of.

You forget Jam that the Christians of Lebanon are neither the sons of America and France and that they have their own oriental christian identity. I would go as far as saying that some of us (Catholics/Maronites) are the spiritual sons of the Vatican, but this is as far as I would go.

But thank you for dramatizing the issue.

 
At 10/24/2005 11:04:00 AM, Blogger norman said...

It seems that the US has decided to destroy secular Syria to appease to the islamist by putting a sunny puppet goverment as they did in Iraq shaia puppet one there.God help syria from the evil dowers.

 
At 10/24/2005 11:07:00 AM, Blogger Lebanon Divided said...

God help the "secular" Baathist system and provide it with many long years ahead.

To the Baath!
Cheers

 
At 10/24/2005 11:28:00 AM, Blogger norman said...

I want everybody to know that i am Syria orthdox christian and i am proud to Syrian Arab and i am ashamed of the Lebanese christian fo their ungratfull attitude toward Syria and the fourteen thousands syrian who died to protect that country ,soon they find out that the plan that the US has for Lebanon is to have a ceremonial presedency for the christian without power and to settle the palestenian in muslem Lebanon to solve the palestenian problem for Israel,Syria and hizballa are the only obsicle to that plan,they starte with Syria then Hizballa next,the Abbassid kaleefa said when the mogole were comming to Bagdad (would,nt they leave Bagdad for me )they raiped his doughters and destroyed Bagdad that is the future for all the arab countries after Syria to devide them into religous statelets with Israel the most advanced and powerfull,wake up everybody we all targets one after the other,i hope the christian arabs specialy will see that.

 
At 10/24/2005 11:35:00 AM, Blogger wearetired said...

The news:


DAMASCUS, Oct 24 (Reuters) - Chanting anti-American slogans, thousands of Syrians protested in the capital on Monday against a U.N. inquiry they say unfairly blames Damascus for the killing of Lebanese former Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri.

Demonstrators said Washington instigated the U.N. probe to pile pressure on Syria for its struggle against Israel and opposition to the 2003 invasion of neighbouring Iraq.

"We don't fear America, down with America," some youths chanted. Others carried banners that read: "Syria is not another Iraq"


Our best regards to all Asad fans in syria from EUROPE. We are happy to hear this good news. Seems all problems in syria are solved.
Lets hope, that our european dreams come also true and all syrians here in europe will buy one way tickets home. Syria needs western educated people more than europe needs syrians.

EUROPE FOR EUROPEANS
AMERICA FOR AMERICANS


Jam-

why do you live in the west? Your comments are brilliant, I admire you and would like to see you in Syria. Guess the masses on the streets in damascus would be the best place for you.

LONG LIVE ASSAD AND HIS FAMILY!!!!

 
At 10/24/2005 11:40:00 AM, Blogger wearetired said...

THE POT GOT HOT:


FREE COCA COLA FOR ALL
PROTESTORS!!!!

 
At 10/24/2005 11:45:00 AM, Blogger madmax said...

I am a Lebanese Muslim and I love Mehlis

Norman,

Don't try to turn it into Muslims and Christians. Why don't you read the Mehlis report and discuss the evidence and the issues instead?

Just so that you know. I am a Lebanese Muslim. And Saad Hariri and the million of his supporters are sunni Muslims. And they are the big drivers of the Mehlis report.

And I hate your maliscious government. They are pure evil. Hariri was not against them. He was trying to do the best for Lebanon. Your gangster government wanted to turn Lebanon into a dictatorship by re-appointing Lahoud. And Hariri wouldn't stand for it. Hariri tried to do economic reforms for the country and Assad and company was against him. They called him a "problem" for Syria. Why? Because he was working for economic and democratic reforms in Lebanon.

Do you know any arab leader or even arab citizen who has the courage of Rafiq Hariri? To stand up against the tyrannical armed regimes and say no? Putting his his life on the line for it?

Your leader, Bashar, is hiding behind the women and children of Syria and he would rather see Syria demolished and massacred than face the truth of his crimes.

 
At 10/24/2005 11:49:00 AM, Blogger Lebanon Divided said...

I want everybody to know that i am Syria orthdox christian and i am proud to Syrian Arab and i am ashamed of the Lebanese christian fo their ungratfull attitude toward Syria and the fourteen thousands syrian who died to protect that country ,soon they find out that the plan that the US has for Lebanon is to have a ceremonial presedency for the christian without power and to settle the palestenian in muslem Lebanon to solve the palestenian problem for Israel,Syria and hizballa are the only obsicle to that plan,they starte with Syria then Hizballa next,the Abbassid kaleefa said when the mogole were comming to Bagdad (would,nt they leave Bagdad for me )they raiped his doughters and destroyed Bagdad that is the future for all the arab countries after Syria to devide them into religous statelets with Israel the most advanced and powerfull,wake up everybody we all targets one after the other,i hope the christian arabs specialy will see that.

How old are you? Seriously.

Your words spit propaganda and they are not yours. The Syrian soldiers died for Assad. They did not die for anybody else, mark that. Assad wanted to rule Lebanon and Assad killed those boys.

Try to look past your nose next time when you speak of Assad's strategy and that of Hezbollah. While true that America and Israel would probably ruin the region (more than it already is), the Arabs should look into themselves and understand that they are the ones who are allowing those superpowers to come into their homes and wreck them.

norman, take it easy on the booze.

"14,000 soldiers who died for Lebanon": You are insulting the memories of those soldiers who died for Assad's greed.

 
At 10/24/2005 11:58:00 AM, Blogger Joseph ALi Mohammed said...

Jokes?

Well, this is Iraq all over again. For 13 years, the brainwashed in the West tried to confuse Iraq with Saddam, and they made the Iraqi people die of hunger because of the Sanctions. They insisted that the Sanctions will weaken the regime, and if thousands of infants were dying, it was not the Sanctions, but rather it was the responsibility of Saddam Hussein, if not the people of Iraq who "should get rid of Saddam". When in 1991 Iraqis tried to get rid of Saddam, they were abandoned by these same people who imposed the Sanctions, and in 1996, when some officers tried to revolt against Saddam Hussein, it was the CIA itself that divulged their names to saddam and blew up their cover, so the Iraqis would stand 8 more years of Sanctions and deaths.

Now, this will be repeated, and smart "Lebanese" Christians or Muslims are happy, and they think they are achieving their revenge from Syria, and its government.

You can not be more against Assad than myself, but the way the West is going about it has nothing to do with saving the Syrian people, or the Lebanese, and it is all to serve the real aim of weakening the people themselves in servitude for Israel. No one is admiring the thugs of the Syrians regime, starting from the Assad family themselves, but we saw enough death in Iraq during 13 years of Sanctions. Sanctions that had nothing to do with weakening the Saddam regime, but to ensure the total subordination of future Iraq to a greater Israel.

JAM

 
At 10/24/2005 12:02:00 PM, Blogger wearetired said...

Islam online:

"God, Syria and Bashar and that's all," shouted hundreds of students who marched toward the center of the capital, waving Syrian flags and holding up pictures of Bashar and his late father Hafez Al-Assad.

"We will defend you Bashar with our blood and our souls," others in the demonstration chanted.


josh-

is it true? Are you with them? Go ahead and good luck and please take all the asad fans here with you.

Syrias blood for Bashar and his family, that is noble indeed.

 
At 10/24/2005 12:11:00 PM, Blogger Lebanon Divided said...

The unfairness in portraying the Lebanese as Syrian-blood-thirsty is absurd.

I am Lebanese and I do not wish to see any innocent Syrian getting hurt.

What do you make of that?

 
At 10/24/2005 12:34:00 PM, Blogger Joseph ALi Mohammed said...

There is one important fait/conclusion of the Mehlis report that turned me against this whole plan. Mehlis stated that the assassination of Hariri, given the magnitude of the explosion, etc.. could not have been executed without the knowledge of Syria given its presence in Lebanon at the time. This is by itself absurd, and illogical, and does not stand in any court of Justice. Many brought up the things that happened in New York, 911, London explosions, Kennedy Assassination, etc.. to point out that what Mehlis was bringing in is absolute garbage. It is not garbage, but this pointed to me clearly that in the eyes and minds of those Westerners: The ends justify the means.

That is in summary why I view the West now as illogical, but very much Mechavilian evil.

The West, if it wanted only to bring down the Assad regime, should not need to kill Hariri, and create a reason for subsequent UN so called resolutions to kill Syria, but rather, the West could just lift the cover of the Assad regime, and speak about its past oppression against the Syrian people, and support the democratic forces in Syria. The West wants nothing of that. The West wants the regime to stand for few years during which Sanctions would be imposed, and Syria will die and achieve the Iraqi status, and bve divided among ethnic and religious groups. The Aims are evident.

God bless the truth.

JAM

 
At 10/24/2005 12:45:00 PM, Blogger Lebanon Divided said...

So try to focus on that instead of saying that the Lebanese want the destruction of Syria.

There is nothing that you can do to prevent the US from destroying you and we have no hand in it, so ranting about it here would not help.

Lebanon has been destroyed too you know, Iraq and Palestine are destroyed; it's not like you cannot see the writing on the wall for Syria.

 
At 10/24/2005 12:55:00 PM, Blogger Mark Buehner said...

Syria is complaining they dont get the benefit of the doubt?! Come on man. You find this letter damning, 95% of the American people will find it vindicating. Syria should be forced to walk the walk instead of talk the talk. Syria shouldn't be lauded for doing things that any remotely civilized nation does as a matter of course. What you are talking about isnt a bug, its a feature.

 
At 10/24/2005 12:56:00 PM, Blogger adonis syria said...

This post has been removed by a blog administrator.

 
At 10/24/2005 12:57:00 PM, Blogger adonis syria said...

This post has been removed by a blog administrator.

 
At 10/24/2005 12:58:00 PM, Blogger adonis syria said...

I want everybody to know that i am Syria orthdox christian and i am proud to Syrian Arab ....bla bla

Norman,go play an another one...it's out of fashion.

 
At 10/24/2005 01:08:00 PM, Blogger Joseph ALi Mohammed said...

I am afraid that the Assad regime will survive, and Sanctions will be imposed on Syria. The Sanctions will not liberate Syria, or even weaken the regime. We saw that in the example of Iraq.

Let's have a bet: I say the US does not want to bring down the Assad regime. It wants to impose Sanctions.

 
At 10/24/2005 01:10:00 PM, Blogger Lebanon Divided said...

It is safe to say that few will bet against that.

Why do we want to consider that the US will treat this any differently than they did with Iraq?

 
At 10/24/2005 01:15:00 PM, Blogger adonis syria said...

Syria is not Iraq nor Lebanon...the danger of syria's partition and civil war is weak because the syrian people is relatively homogeneous with one clear majority.

 
At 10/24/2005 01:18:00 PM, Blogger EHSANI2 said...

JAM,

With all due respect, I seem to be missing the logic behind your argument.

You seem to think that what you call the "West" has this priority:

Rather than take down the Assad Government down earlier, they are really interested in imposing economic sanctions on the Syrian people first before they go for regime change. You also imply that the west "should not need to kill Harriri and creat reason for subsequent action"

1- You think the West wants to starve 18 million people because they hate Arabs and they enjoy watching their standards of living collapse further following the brilliant steering of the economy by the Baath party economic czars?

2- You suggest that the West should have come to Syria and just "lift the cover of the Assad regime"? How would you and the so-called Arab street have reacted? There would haev been an outcry that a sovreign nation is being kicked out of power "for no reason". Even armed with a UN resolution and a country leadership caught red handed, it is not eaxtly easy for the west to roll their tanks into the streets of Damascus.

3- The west and admittedly Israel may well be interested in weaker Arab central Governments. Do you blame them? I think weaker militarily and more stable economically is the new recipe. Frankly, I think the average Syrian and Arab citizan may be the biggest beneficiary.

 
At 10/24/2005 01:22:00 PM, Blogger Lebanon Divided said...

At Monday, October 24, 2005, adonis syria said...
Syria is not Iraq nor Lebanon...the danger of syria's partition and civil war is weak because the syrian people is relatively homogeneous with one clear majority.


So adonis, there is nothing to worry about.

 
At 10/24/2005 01:23:00 PM, Blogger Vox Populi - Agent Provocateur said...

It's amazing to how the people here are living in denial. My advice to these people, Syrian or Lebanese : look at the truth as it is, and deal with it, even if it is unpleasant. Denial will only worsen your situation. Ignoring reality won't change a think, wishful thinking does not work.

 
At 10/24/2005 01:35:00 PM, Blogger Yabroud said...

Look at the truth as it is!!!



Hahahahahahahahah, what is the truth?

Who told you it is not America that killed Hariri?

Do you know?

Why not Israel?

Do you know?

 
At 10/24/2005 01:40:00 PM, Blogger Yabroud said...

The Mehlis report isn't worth the money he got for it. It isn't worth the beer or wine he drank with the money Lebanon gave him to investigate!

Any damn Internet Poster would have produced a similar reprt given the agenda this man was following. No truth in his report what so ever. There was one assumption of who killed Hariri, and that assumption was given legs the media was entertaing with since February, each outlet giving it the shut it wanted in it. Frankly, from the day Hariri was killed, and especially that tehe was UN resolurion 1559 behind it, one should have wondered who really killed this scape goat to acheieve what they were trying to achieve with that resolution. What strengthen my point of view is the Mehlis report that came out exactly to serve those the killing of Hariri was servibg, and it is now serving.

 
At 10/24/2005 02:01:00 PM, Blogger Yabroud said...

Plse excuse the typos.

 
At 10/24/2005 02:08:00 PM, Blogger Lebanon Divided said...

It's ok Bashar...

 
At 10/24/2005 02:33:00 PM, Blogger adonis syria said...

1000 welcomes to the sanctions against the Syrian regime and there are many ways to impose effective sanctions on this mafia,but an absolute "No" on any sanctions which target the syrian people.
I'm optimistic after i have listened to Saad Hariri and Jumblatt,they refuse any form of sanctions against the syrian people.
God Bless the people of Syria and Lebanon.

 
At 10/24/2005 03:19:00 PM, Blogger Marlin said...

JAM -

I am not Lebanese. I am an American citizen and I resent it very much that my tax dollars are supporting a Fulbright scholarship for a year for Josh and what he is now doing while I'm paying for his staying Syria is defending a corrupt Syrian government instead of the freedom and democracy that Americans cherish.

 
At 10/24/2005 03:31:00 PM, Blogger Yabroud said...

Fulbright scholarship


Is it private, or public tax?

I think you are making a mistake.

 
At 10/24/2005 04:32:00 PM, Blogger Yabroud said...

Fulbright scholarship


Is it private, or public tax?

I think you are making a mistake.

 
At 10/24/2005 05:11:00 PM, Blogger DamasceneBlood said...

Marlin

It's amusing that it bothers you that Josh has a well-deserved Fulbright (which doesn't come from your tax dollars as you ignorantly state), while it doesn't bother you that your tax money is being used to buy tanks and bombs to 'liberate' Iraqis from their lives. Grow a brain.

 
At 10/24/2005 05:56:00 PM, Blogger Peter said...

We recall similar cautions offered against deposing Slobodan Milosevic in Yugoslavia and evicting Syrian troops from Lebanon. Yet it's hard to imagine a successor regime worse than one that assassinates foreign leaders, welcomes terrorists at the Damascus airport on their way into Iraq to kill American GIs, supports Hezbollah and imposes the tyranny of an Allawite minority on a majority Sunni country.

This is pure demagoguery. Ask people in Fallujah or Tal Afar or Ramadi if overthrowing a despotic regime automatically makes your life better.

As Josh has pointed out in earlier posts, there is very little reason to believe that overthrowing Bashar would lead to a democratic Syria; it would, almost certainly, however, lead to instability and destroy the few good things about life in Syria. Not to mention the fact that an instable Syria could become a haven for jihadis, as has happened in Iraq.

I am no apologist for Assad. If Syrians make the choice to risk their future to attempt to overthrow Assad, then I will support them. As an American, however, I am not going to make that decision for them when I am not the one who will bear the costs and risks.

By the way, for people who point to Iraq as a model of regime change, this article in The Telegraph (which, BTW, supported the invasion of Iraq) is worth reading.

 
At 10/24/2005 08:01:00 PM, Blogger Marlin said...

To those whose disparaged my statement that my taxes were paying for Josh's Fulbright scholarship, please see the following web page.

The Fulbright Teachers Exchange Program

I quote the following sections.

*** FINANCE

The common misconception is that Fulbright is privately funded. In reality, the primary source of funding for the Fulbright Program is an annual appropriation by the U.S. Congress. The remainder is supplied by participating countries.
*********
Besides the status of being a Fulbright Teacher Exchange recipient there are any number of advantages to the program. As we mentioned already, you don't need to quit your job; you retain your salary; job-related travel and assignment expenses become tax-deductible and the contract is only for one year or less.
********
So not only is the American public paying for Josh's scholarship, we're providing him with extra tax breaks. And how does he repay us? By supporting a thuggish dictator. Josh isn't a representative of America that makes me proud.

 
At 10/24/2005 08:26:00 PM, Blogger madmax said...

Why many Arabs live in denial

I am qualified to explain. I am a Lebanese who has lived the first 20 years of my life in Lebanon and the last 10 years in the US.

The reasons the arabs live in denial is because they're not used to an investigative report done by an impartial judge.

All the arabs know about "investigations" are cover ups for stuff. Arabs live in a world of "conspiracy theories".

Sadly, for many arabs, everything that happens in this world is a conspiracy that is run by the jews.

The facts?
1. Hariri opposed Syrian politics in Lebanon.
2. Assad threatened Hariri's life.
3. Assad is a tyranical murderous dictator
4. Hariri is killed in Lebanon, which is under Syrian security

Who killed Hariri? what's the logical conclusion?

For the arabs it's "the jews in America conspired with the jews of Israel to set up Syria to fail."

Diana died in car accident? "the jews of America and the jews of Israel conspired to kill her to set up the arabs to fail"..

Unfortunately even my aunts and grandma think this way till today. This is very rampant in the uneducated majority. Even some educated think this way.

The truth is... The "west" is a very different place than the arab world. If one lives in America and understands the culture, he would understand that 1) the US government has no motive in doing so. 2) the US government has accountability. So Bush can not do something like "assassinate Hariri" in secret without reprocussions. Think about this: Clinton had sex with an intern. He was impeached.

Oh by the way, many arabs also believes that the "jews of America" set up Clinton with Monica Lewinsky to impeach him. The "jews" did that so that they put pressure on him to give more of Israel to the jews. Think it's crazy? it's true. you better believe it.

In the fairy tale of the political arab world "the jews" do everything.

Until the arab street starts using more logic and less fairy tales, the journey towards freedom, democracy, and prosperty hasn't even begun.

 
At 10/25/2005 12:19:00 PM, Blogger madmax said...

good article from the Guardian about America and Syria's role in the current situation

Could Syria have been so stupid?

Yes, says Brian Whitaker, and full cooperation with the UN following its investigation into the assassination of Rafik Hariri may be the only way the Assad regime can survive

Tuesday October 25, 2005


Tens of thousands of Syrians took to the streets of Damascus and Aleppo yesterday protesting against the UN report that implicated Syria in the assassination of the former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri.
Children arriving at school were informed that classes had been cancelled and instead they would be taking part in a "spontaneous" demonstration.

All subscribers to Syriatel, the mobile phone company owned by the president's cousin, received text messages urging them to take part, according to the New York Times.


Article continues

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Since the report by Detlev Mehlis, the German prosecutor in charge of the UN investigation, was published at the end of last week, Syria has sought to portray it as biased, untrue and politically motivated.
The report - which can be read in full on the UN's website - presented a mass of evidence pointing to Syrian involvement in the assassination. Claiming that this is just the latest episode in an American-Israeli conspiracy against Syria, as the Damascus regime is now doing, helps to mobilise local opinion and removes any need to respond in detail to the content of the report.

Quite apart from the assassination of Rafik Hariri, Syria certainly has reasons for feeling that it has been unfairly targeted.

Some of Syria's fears can be traced back to 1996 and the now-infamous "Clean Break" document, produced by an Israeli thinktank, which proposed reshaping the Middle East in order to secure Israel's "strategic environment", starting with Iraq.

The document viewed removing Saddam Hussein from power in Iraq "as a means of foiling Syria's regional ambitions" and talked of "weakening, containing, and even rolling back Syria".

Although the document was originally intended as a blueprint for the Israeli government of Binyamin Netanyahu, several of its authors went on to play an influential role in the Bush administration. Among them, Richard Perle and Douglas Feith were key figures promoting the invasion of Iraq.

More recently, the anti-Syrian lobby in the US succeeded in getting Congress to pass the Syria Accountability Act, which in May last year resulted in Washington imposing somewhat half-hearted sanctions against Damascus.

Up to that point, campaigning against the Syrian regime was mainly a fringe activity among the American, Israeli and Lebanese-Christian right. It would never have gained broader international support but for a series of blunders by Damascus.

The initial blunder was Syria's decision to extend the presidency of its Lebanese stooge, Emile Lahoud, and to browbeat the Lebanese parliament into approving it. After years of pragmatic coexistence with his masters in Damascus, this was what finally turned Hariri against Syria and led to him stepping down as Lebanese prime minister and joining the opposition.

The extension of Lahoud's presidential term also had the accidental effect of rallying international support for Lebanon and against Syria. France, which had opposed the US over the invasion of Iraq, suddenly joined the Americans as co-sponsor of security council resolution 1559 which, in effect, called for the ending of Syrian influence in Lebanon.

What lay behind the French interest is not entirely clear, though France has its own history of influence in Lebanon - the country was under French mandate until independence in 1943 - and President Jacques Chirac had long been chummy with Hariri. There had even been claims in the French press - subsequently denied - that the billionaire Hariri had helped Chirac with his election funds.

Despite its approval by the security council in September last year, resolution 1559 - and its demand for all foreign (ie Syrian) troops to leave Lebanon - would probably have gathered dust in the UN's vast collection of unimplemented resolutions had it not been for the assassination of Hariri in February. This finally brought about the international consensus that anti-Syria campaigners had previously only dreamed of.

Killing Hariri was a blunder of the first order and, with the benefit of hindsight, even the Syrian president has said so, in support of his claim that Syria was not involved. Despite protestations of innocence, however, Syria's approach to the UN investigation has not been that of a wrongly accused party seeking to clear its name; if anything, its behaviour has been self-incriminating. Its cooperation with the inquiry has been reluctant and half-hearted ("in form, not substance" according to the Mehlis report), its foreign minister and other officials are accused of lying to investigators, and President Assad has so far refused to give any account of the meeting where he is alleged to have threatened Hariri.

Many people still question whether Syria could really have been so stupid as to assassinate Hariri. What did it hope to gain? How on earth did it expect to get away with it?

There are several possible explanations. One is that it was a standard knee-jerk reaction from an old-style intelligence apparatus. With Hariri in opposition Syria saw its influence in Lebanon slipping away and thought it could call a halt by eliminating him and sending a warning to others. There may also have been an element of retribution, since Hariri was perceived - perhaps correctly - as the instigator, via his French pals, of resolution 1559.

According to Mehlis, whoever killed Hariri also went to the trouble of setting up a fake culprit - creating an imaginary Islamist group to claim responsibility, abducting a devout young Lebanese man to be framed as the suicide bomber and selecting a type of explosives favoured by militants in Iraq.

At the time, of course, the Syrians and their Lebanese security allies were still in control and would have had no reason to expect that independent investigators would challenge their account or trace their phone calls.

Their main miscalculation was to underestimate the international response to the assassination, and the protests inside Lebanon. Looking back, it seems obvious there would be an outcry, but perhaps it was not so obvious to the perpetrators at the time.

There had been so many political assassinations in Lebanon that people had got used to them and tended to shrug them off. That, more or less, was the initial reaction among many of Hariri's Sunni Muslim supporters after his death. It was only when the Christians spotted an opportunity to start agitating that the Sunnis joined in and the protests took off.

Syria is not by any means the first country to have meddled in another country's affairs or to have been accused of assassinating a political opponent. It may feel it has been singled out for punishment but that is really no excuse. Complaining of victimisation may sound good in Ba'ath party meetings but in the real world outside it doesn't help.

Syria's failure to cooperate fully with the UN investigators places it in breach of security council resolution 1959, which requires all countries to provide "any relevant information they may possess". If the Damascus regime does not comply, it is ultimately doomed. It may also be doomed if it does comply, but at least it has a chance to buy more time.

There is no easy way out but Syria's best option is to cooperate as actively as possible, even if that means handing over Rustom Ghazaleh, its former intelligence chief in Lebanon, and Asef Shawkat, the president's brother-in-law who is also named in the Mehlis report, for questioning and possible arrest.

Syria may be tempted to procrastinate (as it usually does), but that is only likely to make things worse. In principle, both the US and Israel would like to see the Assad regime gone but both have other things on their plate and are not particularly eager to strike a fatal blow just at the moment. If President Assad is able to break old habits and play his cards right for once, that - perhaps - is his best hope for survival.





Email
brian.whitaker@guardian.co.uk

 
At 10/25/2005 07:19:00 PM, Blogger Stella said...

All,
terribly conflicted here. The Hariri job was done by pro's that's for certain. Wouldn't it be convenient for Hariri's assasination lead to the downfall of Assad? Yesterday, on NPR's Diane Rehm show, several callers expressed their views that Hariri's assasination smelled of something a bit..shall we say...black by the U.S. The U.S. could then pressure UN involvement, team up with the French once again, and get an international consensus for regime change in Syria without firing a shot. The U.S. saves the day! How convenient! But...then again, it IS Syria. When Bush came out with the Axis of Evil trio, it was a suprise that Syria did not make the list...Iraq was a suprise. This website seems to be a bit slanted against the U.S., and I understand that Syria is tremendously complex (as I found studying Lebanon in grad school)...can the U.S. be that dead wrong...it's appalling if it is AND that the American public AND Congress allow it. Hell, I've been waxing poetic on the days when trouble in the white house was Monica Lewinsky..

-Stella
http://irwaltz.blogspot.com

 
At 10/26/2005 12:47:00 PM, Blogger Abu Arab said...

Why only Syria?

But guys, don't you think that America and Israel are the biggest hypocrites in this world.

What Bush said about Iraq in public (Demogracy & Peace & Corruption) is different from what is going on in Abu Graib, Fulujah and other Iraqi cities.

Bush promises for Abu Mazin and the Palestinians about establishing an independent state in public is different from what he said behind closed rooms.

What Israel claims that it's the only democracy in the ME in public is different from the ugly discrimination that's happening between the Jews and the Arabs.



Abu Arab

 
At 10/29/2005 01:17:00 AM, Blogger 277fia said...

I haven't read all of the comments here but I have a question for the Syrians.

In June 1999, James A. Baker and Edward Djernian met with Hafez Assad, Bashar's father in Damascus. The two then went on to Beirut where they met with President Hoss.

Around the same time, the Iranian foreign minister arrived in Syria.

I don't why Baker and Djernian were in Syria and Lebanon in June 1999. They were private citizens and no friends of President Bill Clinton.

With the US presidential election coming up in the following year, James Baker would have had every reason to make Bill Clinton and Al Gore look inept when it came to foreign policy.

Personally, I think James Baker is the biggest bully and the most crooked lawyer on the face of the planet. I wouldn't be a bit surprised if I found out that Secretary of State Baker knew Saddam Hussein was going to invade Iraq in 1990 and kept that fact to himself.

James Baker became a $2m a year consultant to Enron in 1993. From what I know, Baker's role was to assist Enron develop international projects.

Also in June 1999, Enron announced a joint project with the Palestinians to build a power plant. It is highly unlikely that Enron ever intended to build that plant.

In July 1999, Enron spun off its subsidiary, EOG, as a separate company. EOG kept most of Enron's more valuable assets and trades today at more than $70 per share.

From 1998 to 2000, Enron's gross profit percentage decreased as revenues increased. The company was clearly in trouble and senior management would have known that better than anyone. At some point, cash flow would become a problem without taking on a major construction project.

By December 2000, Enron had to attack Californians financially to survive until the end of 2001. Enron and Reliant only jacked up California's electricity prices after the Supreme Court declared George Bush to be the president.

Why did James Baker and Edward Djernian meet with Hafez Assad in June 1999 and why did Enron announce that it would build a power plant for the Palestinians in June 1999 that would never be built?

I am wondering whether that power plant project caused friction between the Israelis and the Palestinians. If so, was it intended to cause problems?

I'm sort of thinking out loud here.

 
At 10/31/2005 03:38:00 AM, Blogger 277fia said...

After posting here on Saturday, I kept thinking about the Syrians. I can't say that I know all that much about what is really going on in Syria these days and I still haven't read all of the posts here.

I have read about how Syria helped the CIA after 9/11 but at this point, I have no idea if that was good or bad. For one, I detest the CIA's rendition policy. I know the neoconservatives in Washington DC are at odds with the CIA but that does not make the CIA good guys. Everyone has their own agenda.

Mine is to stop the US from getting into any more wars. Enough is enough.

My sister is a professor at a NY university. She teaches midwifery which is part of the university's nursing program. After the fighting in Iraq ended, she seriously considered enlisting in a program to update Iraqis on the latest advances in birthing techniques. She was all set to go to Iraq for an extended length of time. Then the violence began.

Since then, she has been promoted to an administrative post in the nursing program. She has to travel to Jordan for a week soon on behalf of the university but this time, she is very, very nervous about the trip. My sister is no slouch in the travel department. She went to China without hesitation within a month after 9/11. Me, I refused a job in September 2001 because I would have had to spend two weeks in Miami. (I live on Long Island in NY).

I found some comments I made on Dear Raed, the Iraqi blogger's website, from April 2003 about the Syrian ambassador's appearance on Meet the Press. I didn't keep his name so I don't know if the ambassador then was Dr. Moustapha. What I wrote about was my impression of how Tim Russert treated the Syrian ambassador.

I missed the interview with Ahmad Chalabai but the rest of Meet the Press that day was out and out propaganda. Russert interviewed Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld before the ambassador and in the middle of the interview, Russert was interrupted with the "news" that Saddam Hussein's half-brother had been captured.

The stunt was obviously staged and finally confirmed what I had long suspected about Tim Russert. He works for the Bush administration. He is so close to the Bush family, Barbara Bush calls him "Timmy".

The way that Russert treated the Syrian ambassador was appalling. I don't have the transcript in front of me, just my comments so I can't quote either of them. But Russert ambushed the ambassador with questions in a harsh and unfriendly tone of voice to make the ambassador look untruthful.

Russert put up quote from a Syrian-Kurdish religuous leader who called on his followers to fight the infidels in front of the ambassador's face as if the quote was Syrian official policy. When the ambassador tried to explain that the man was 88 years old and the Syrian government was not about to tell him what he could or could not say, Russert became more belligerent. In other words, the Syrian ambassador was set up by Tim Russert in a no-win situation.

When Patrick Fitzgerald announced the indictment of Scooter Libby on Friday, he said Libby told the grand jury that he heard about Valerie Plame from Tim Russert. I think that Libby must have expected Russert to lie for him. But for some reason, Russert told a different story.

I am writing this comment to try to give a different perspective on the Syrian issue. The average American has no idea about the real situation in the Middle East.

From what I have read, my sister will probably be just fine in Jordan but I don't know that for sure. I do know that she is dedicated to her profession and very conscientious about her work. I think it is a shame that she could not go to Iraq because she would have represented what is best about the United States.

I hate even writing this but probably the best route for Syria is to hire a Washington DC public relations firm and buy its way into the Bush administration's good graces. That solution worked for Libya. But then again, Syria does not have as much oil as Libya.

Saudi bankers hired Jack Abramoff after 9/11 and apparently that worked because the 9/11 Commission never named one of them. I don't think Jack Abramoff is still available but I can't say for certain. I don't live in Washington DC.

It is either very late or very early here in New York depending on one's perpsective. So good night or good morning. I'm out of here.

 
At 11/10/2005 09:09:00 AM, Blogger 277fia said...

I don't know if anyone even read my last two posts but my sister did not go to Jordan. After I posted here, I thought about what I wrote and I asked her not to go. Her trip never materialized anyway and she never had to make a decision.

As I wrote, the average American has no idea about what is going on in the Middle East. The university should never have considered sending anyone to the Middle East at this time.

 
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where is 77fia?

 
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