Arab Mukhabarat Confab: Syria Wallflower

Arab intelligence agencies are trying to come up with a plan to salvage the remains of Iraq when it plunges into civil war. Syria was not invited. Why? Because Syria is part of the problem - Syria and Iran that is - according to an AP article. Al-Manar TV, Hizbullah's channel, has announced that Syria is undeterred. "Syria is offering a new initiative to contain the Iraqi crisis."

The first goal is to set a timetable for the withdrawal of occupation forces in Iraq, the 2nd to include Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Iran along with Syria in helping stop the violence, and 3rd support the political process and help it succeed.

The Sunni - Shi'a divide finds its way into the broader Arab mukhabarat. Iran has also spoken out. Writing in the Turkish press, the Iranian ambassador to Ankara urged Turkey, Iran and Syria to form a joint policy on the Kurdish issue, saying that if they did not, “the US will carve pieces from us for a Kurdish state.” Turkey, it seems, will be the star to both the Shiite and Sunni crescents - lucky Turks.

Arab diplomats: Mideast nations holding secret talks on Iraq
05/04/2006
By The Associated Press

Top intelligence officers from several Arab countries and Turkey have been meeting secretly to coordinate their governments' strategies in case civil war erupts in Iraq and in an attempt to block Iran's interference in the war-torn nation, Arab diplomats said Tuesday.

The four diplomats said intelligence chiefs from Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and non-Arab Turkey held a series of meetings over the last few weeks to assess the situation in Iraq and work out plans to avoid any regional backlash that may result from sectarian conflict in Iraq.

The diplomats in several Middle Eastern capitals, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue, said Iran and Syria have been excluded from the talks.

"They are part of the problem, not of the solution," said one diplomat whose country is involved in the talks.

He said the officials are focusing on the proposed U.S.-Iranian dialogue and the implications on Arabs and Turkey of any "American-Iranian deal."

Reports in the Arab press have suggested that any agreement between Washington and Tehran will be at the expense of Arabs.

On Monday, an Iranian diplomat in Baghdad said the U.S.-Iranian contacts will be initiated in the Iraqi capital but he did not say when.

Arab nations, mostly Sunni and traditionally suspicious of Iran, are deeply concerned about what they see as Iran's growing influence in Iraq. Turkey, also a key Sunni Muslim nation, is worried about Iraq's split into sectarian and ethnic entities that will give rise to Kurdish ambitions for independence.

Several Arab leaders have voiced concerns about possible Shiite domination of Iraq and their alliance with Iran.

Last year, Jordan's King Abdullah II accused Shiite-dominated Iran of trying to influence events in Iraq. He warned that Iran was seeking to create "a Shiite crescent" that would disrupt the balance of power in the region.

Saudi Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal made similar warnings.

Before Iraqis voted on their new constitution last year, both Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa and Abdul Rahman al-Attiya, head of the Gulf Cooperation Council, lobbied to include a clear reference about Iraq's "Arab identity" in the document.

Elections held in January produced a parliament dominated by Shiites and Kurds, and a ruling coalition by both groups is bound to have close ties to Persian and Shiite Iran.

There is little doubt that sidelining the Sunnis would vastly increase Iran's influence in Iraq and the whole region - anathema for Sunni Arabs and a nightmare for many Washington policy-makers.

At least one meeting of the intelligence chiefs was held in Cairo in late March, shortly after the U.S. administration said it wanted to open contacts with Tehran about Iraq, the diplomats said.

They said further meetings are planned, including at least one in Cairo this month to finalize the strategy.

Government officials in Egypt and Jordan declined to answer questions on the meetings.

On Tuesday, the pro-Damascus Lebanese paper As-Safir reported that Syria is launching its own initiative to "contain the crisis in Iraq."

"The initiative is aimed at containing the Iraqi deadlock in a way that will allow both Arabs and Iran to meet on common interests," according to As-Safir, which also reported that Syrian Vice President Farouk al-Sharaa was taking charge of the initiative.

Since the ousting of Saddam Hussein three years ago, officials from Iraq's neighbors have held scores of meetings on Iraq but the discussions have not yielded concrete efforts to help restoring stability to the beleaguered nation.

The Arab League is planning a conference in Baghdad in June to try to reconcile the Iraqi factions. In a similar conference in Cairo last November, Iraqi Shiite, Kurdish and Sunni leaders failed to end the rift in a meeting marred by differences between participants.

Last week, at an Arab summit in Sudan, interim Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari accused Arab nations of hoping for the failure of Iraq's new government. He said Arab nations only had themselves to blame for Iran's influence in Iraq because they had failed to play a role in Iraq.

Later the summit issued a final statement saying that Arabs should be party in any talks about Iraq's future.

On Tuesday, Prince Saud said the League is planning a meeting on Iraq. He did not say when the meeting would be held nor who is participating.