New US Sanctions Bill Introduced
Just when you think it is all over something new happens. The opposition demonstration in Beirut yesterday, which gathered an estimated million participants, has thrown momentum back on the side of the anti-Syrian forces.
The opposition had some doubts about the extent of its appeal after the Hezbollah demonstration in a nearby square in Beirut on Tuesday. There have been rallies in the city center every Monday since former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri was assassinated Feb. 14, a Monday, but organizers were determined to make this one especially large in response to the pro-Syrian march.
"This will counterbalance last Tuesday, and now we can sit and talk," said Mazen al-Zain, a 30-year-old financial analyst, noting that he himself was a member of an illustrious Shiite clan from southern Lebanon. "What is really important after today's gathering is that we all sit down at the same table."
The presence of such a large number of Lebanese put added pressure on the government of Syria to announce a serious timetable for the withdrawal of both its thousands of troops and its secret police officers in the country. Although President Bashar al-Assad has promised a withdrawal into the Bekaa region by the end of March and a further discussion with a joint Lebanese-Syrian commission in early April, there is still no clear timetable for a complete withdrawal.
A number of dangers still lurk for Syria.
One is the introduction of "H.R.1141 Lebanon and Syria Liberation Act" (Introduced in House, which is designed "To strengthen sanctions against the Government of Syria, to establish a program to support a transition to a democratically elected government in Syria and the restoration of sovereignty and democratic rule in Lebanon, and for other purposes."
IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVESOne of the new features of the bill is:
March 8, 2005
Ms. ROS-LEHTINEN (for herself, Mr. ENGEL, Mr. CHABOT, Mr. MACK, Mrs. JO ANN DAVIS of Virginia, Mr. BOOZMAN, and Ms. BERKLEY) introduced the following bill; which was referred to the Committee on International Relations, and in addition to the Committees on Financial Services, Ways and Means, and Government Reform, for a period to be subsequently determined by the Speaker, in each case for consideration of such provisions as fall within the jurisdiction of the committee concerned.
SEC. 202. ASSISTANCE TO SUPPORT A TRANSITION TO DEMOCRACY IN SYRIA AND RESTORATION OF SOVEREIGN DEMOCRATIC GOVERNANCE IN LEBANON.There are other additional aspects to the bill, such as placing sanctions on foreign countries that sell Syria weapons, but the democracy section, if the bill is passed and accepted by the President, would signify an new strategy toward Syria - one that clearly moves toward regime change.
(a) Authorization- Notwithstanding any other provision of law, the President is authorized to provide assistance and other support for individuals and independent nongovernmental organizations to support a transition to a freely-elected, internationally recognized democratic government in Syria and the restoration of sovereign, democratic rule in Lebanon.
(b) Activities Supported- Assistance provided under subsection (a) shall, to the maximum extent practicable, be used to carry out the following activities:
(1) Democracy-building and civil society efforts in Syria and Lebanon, including the provision of assistance to organizations certified by the President to be independent democratic organizations, victims of political repression and their families, and prisoners of conscience and their families.
(2) Radio and television broadcasting to Syria and Lebanon to support democracy-building and civil society efforts in Syria and Lebanon.
(c) Authorization of Appropriations- There are authorized to be appropriated to the President to carry out this section such sums as may be necessary for fiscal year 2006 and each subsequent fiscal year.
Another danger lurks in the Hariri murder investigation.
Middle East correspondent Robert Fisk reported that President George W. Bush "is expected to announce on Wednesday that Syrian - and perhaps Lebanese - military intelligence officers were involved" in the killing.Syria seems to be decided to move troops out before the May elections in Lebanon, which should eliminate the threat of sanctions. Russia and Germany have suggested they are happy with Syrian progress so far.
In his article, Fisk said the report of the United Nations inquiry team "will be so devastating that it will force a full international investigation of the murder of 'Mr. Lebanon' and his entourage, perhaps reaching to the higher echelons of the Syrian and Lebanese governments."
Speaking from New York, a UN spokesperson told The Daily Star that whatever President Bush would announce would not be based on the UN team's findings as the investigation is still ongoing.
He said: "We can neither confirm nor deny anything until the team returns to New York and presents its findings to the secretary general."
According to The Independent, The UN team, made up of Irish, Egyptian and Moroccan investigators and recently joined by Swiss bomb experts, has discovered that many of the vehicles from Hariri's convoy "were moved from the scene of the massacre only hours afterward - and before there was time for an independent investigation."
The European Parliament on Thursday did not put Hizbullah on a European list of terror organizations, after a proposal to do so that was pushed by the US was dropped.
Syria's strong leverage in Lebanon still remains. The two armed groups in Lebanon - Hizbullah and the Lebanese army, the Commander-in-Chief of which I presume is President Lahoud, are both in Syria's camp. No opposition groups are armed or have malitias.
Secondly, the opposition must cooperate with Prime Minister Karami and President Lahoud to construct an interim government if it wants to get the election laws passed in time for May elections to be carried out.
It is still too early to calculate who controls Lebanon or who has "won" due to the recent crisis. The dust has not settled.
posted by Joshua Landis @ 3/15/2005 01:55:00 AM
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20 Comments:
The US wants "A TRANSITION TO DEMOCRACY IN SYRIA"
1. Is it any of its business ?
2. Is Bush going to bomb us into democracy Iraqi style?
It ain't over until the Baath regme is over
Anonymous said:
Is Bush going to bomb us into democracy Iraqi style?
Perhaps. If Syria disregards 17 UNSC resolutions and tries to start another war.
But I think the opposition and the new freedom and democracy movement will accomplish what Bush and the rest of the Middle East wants.
It remains to be seen what the Baathist despots and their terrorist servants will do to cling to power...
"just when YOU think it is all over"
Who the hell thought it was over except for you in that silly post yesterday!? I'm glad you corrected it because it was hilarious!
There are a million ways to continue pressure. Only someone as shortsighted as Bashar would think it's over because he redeployed to the Bekaa.
The first and most immediate one is the Hariri murder which will be pinned on the intelligence services of both countries and will reflect directly on Bashar. He will lose Lahoud and his enforcers. How is he supposed to dictate anything then (see Jumblat's remarks to this effect in the DS, Naharnet and an-Nahar)? Your line about the army not being essential in enforcing Bashar's dictat was laughable. The Syrians have had no influence in Lebanon except that which they've leveraged through the barrel of the gun. You should seriously get out of Damascus. The air is affecting your judgment.
This is not to mention Larsen's point that 1559 is not just about the withdrawal but also about the policitcal sovereignty and independence of Lebanon. Which gives the US and EU all the pretext in the world to continue monitoring things on the ground.
As for Hizbullah, I wonder who needs whom more to stay relevant!
The rest of your points about "who controls Lebanon" and how Bashar was right about Lebanon being a bunch of warring tribes who have dependence on Syrian influence in their genes (either them or the US) are way too close to the Baathist rhetoric that it's costing you your credibility and objectivity. There are enough Bashar mouthpieces out there. Leave that job to Seale et al.
Wake up!
"just when YOU think it is all over"
Who the hell thought it was over except for you in that silly post yesterday!? I'm glad you corrected it because it was hilarious!
There are a million ways to continue pressure. Only someone as shortsighted as Bashar would think it's over because he redeployed to the Bekaa.
The first and most immediate one is the Hariri murder which will be pinned on the intelligence services of both countries and will reflect directly on Bashar. He will lose Lahoud and his enforcers. How is he supposed to dictate anything then (see Jumblat's remarks to this effect in the DS, Naharnet and an-Nahar)? Your line about the army not being essential in enforcing Bashar's dictat was laughable. The Syrians have had no influence in Lebanon except that which they've leveraged through the barrel of the gun. You should seriously get out of Damascus. The air is affecting your judgment.
This is not to mention Larsen's point that 1559 is not just about the withdrawal but also about the policitcal sovereignty and independence of Lebanon. Which gives the US and EU all the pretext in the world to continue monitoring things on the ground.
As for Hizbullah, I wonder who needs whom more to stay relevant!
The rest of your points about "who controls Lebanon" and how Bashar was right about Lebanon being a bunch of warring tribes who have dependence on Syrian influence in their genes (either them or the US) are way too close to the Baathist rhetoric that it's costing you your credibility and objectivity. There are enough Bashar mouthpieces out there. Leave that job to Seale et al.
Wake up!
As for your point about the army and hizbullah both are wrong.
First Lahoud is not the commander of the army, Michel Sleimen is. He has so far been neutral, and some say that he is calculating, and won't necessarily come to aid Lahoud. Lahoud does control the presidential guard.
As for Hizbullah, it hasn't nor will it become Syria's enforcer. It would be a stupid move and if anything the 1 million people that took to the street after Hizbullah's show of strength should put that theory of intimidation to rest. Syria needs Hizbullah far more than Hizbullah needs it.
But this point contradicts your other point about how Syria maintains influence. It has nothing to do with the make up or the "character" of Lebanon and the Lebanese. It has to do with mafia style thuggishness and intimidation through force. With the Syrian army and intelligence gone, (shit, even with them here!), no one is intimidated anymore. They can't pressure people to do their bidding. They can't manipulate elections and lists, etc. All this was done at gun point. Not anymore.
Go back to being critical. This new line doesn't suit you at all.
As for your point about the army and hizbullah both are wrong.
First Lahoud is not the commander of the army, Michel Sleimen is. He has so far been neutral, and some say that he is calculating, and won't necessarily come to aid Lahoud. Lahoud does control the presidential guard.
As for Hizbullah, it hasn't nor will it become Syria's enforcer. It would be a stupid move and if anything the 1 million people that took to the street after Hizbullah's show of strength should put that theory of intimidation to rest. Syria needs Hizbullah far more than Hizbullah needs it.
But this point contradicts your other point about how Syria maintains influence. It has nothing to do with the make up or the "character" of Lebanon and the Lebanese. It has to do with mafia style thuggishness and intimidation through force. With the Syrian army and intelligence gone, (shit, even with them here!), no one is intimidated anymore. They can't pressure people to do their bidding. They can't manipulate elections and lists, etc. All this was done at gun point. Not anymore.
Go back to being critical. This new line doesn't suit you at all.
Regarding Robert Fisk's article, the US State department DENIED that President George W. Bush is to announce on Wednesday that Syrian and Lebanese military intelligence officers were involved in the killing of Harriri!!
Other news today is the briefing from the meetings Walid Moualem, Syria's deputy foreign minister, held with the world ambassadors in Damascus. He noted that the opening of a Syrian embassy in Beirut is on the agenda! This idea of an embassy was also noted in the Financial Times a few days ago! Moualem also said that if anony in the intnerational community had an issue related to Lebanon, this shall not be dealt with in Damascus as the situation was for a long time! He also confirmed that the Syrian-Lebanese relations would be handled exclusively by the Foreign Ministry.
All together this sound really promising of new start in the these relations! Add to that the army pulling out, the ball is now moving to the Lebanese camp! They need to organize themselves well enough and to prove that they have the capacity to run a stable country!
To Annon 5:49 AM Is it any of the US's (the world) business?
The answer is yes. This question has been gone over for the past 5 years. It's not just Lebanon, it's the middle east.
If people want self government free from intelligence spies and soldiers, the world is entitled to support this aspiration. Just last fall this question was publically discussed during the Urkranian election crisis. It was the Russians who asked why is the west (Europe) interested?
On a broader sweep, a better life for the people in the middle east is not happening. The middle east countries lag the world in education improvement, job development, economic reform and economic growth, and it is the primary exporter of terrorism.
One response has been the movement to revert the middle east society to the way it was 1300 years ago. This movement fails, however, to have a plan for the growth and economic betterment that recognizes the 21st century.
An off shoot of this movement is to blame the west for the middle east's woes. This is pointing to the stye in the west's eye while ignoring the log in its own eye. Fix your own house before complaining about others.
Nobody but your own government is stopping the people in the middle east from effecting long needed reforms and working for legitimate improvement is the standard of living for themselves and their families. There are only two ways of doing it - through democratic expression of the people without fear, or by bullets. Who is it that says bullets are preferable?
Why is the west concerned? Becuase the writings and statements of those who export terror to the west disclose they are the ones who have the log in their eye. The west says, everybody, I mean everybody, is better off if the people of the middle east have a better life, and with a better life the appeal to export terror diminishes. This is not new stuff, my friend. Read...please read.
I have some skepticism about how well Lebanese will work together, because I happen to be old enough to remember the brutal fratricidal battles of the late 70s and 80s. Still, that era seems to be over and there is no justification for Syria's presence any more.
Let the Lebanese people build a new future for themselves without Syrian soldiers int he country. Hizbollah will be an important part of the new Lebanon, but it is only one part.
Who is it that says bullets are preferable?
George Bush, of course. He beleives that bombs and invasion is the way to spread democracy. Not so !! Democracy can be spread through the people as in Lebanon.
Perhaps. If Syria disregards 17 UNSC resolutions and tries to start another war.
Is George Bush is going to invade Israel for disregarding numerous UN resolutions ? Who made him the enforcer of the world ? The God he speaks to daily ?
But I think the opposition and the new freedom and democracy movement will accomplish what Bush and the rest of the Middle East wants.
I think America's appetite for democracy will fade quickly once Hamas does well in Palestinian elections, and once the Muslim Brotherhood does well in Egyptian elections. We saw Bush give billions of dollars to Musharaff in Pakistan after he overthrew Nawaz Sharif there. We also see how he gives despot Mubarak $2B every year and only chides him gently while (rightly) chiding despot Assad.
Now, for once, he is doing some good in Lebanon by asking Syria to pull out. But that does not make his actions good any more than it makes Assad Sr's moving into Lebanon good (although each had an unexpected good side effect --- in Assad's case, the stopping of the civil war, in Bush's case, the removal of the puppet Lebanese government)
Tony -- calm down, stop drinking the neo-con Kool Aid, maybe that way you'll avoid posting everything twice.
If you have private information that the Hariri murder is going to be pinned on the Lebanese and Syrian Intelligence services, please let us know when and how. Understand, I think they did it, I'm just highly dubious when people make broad claims about what exactly is going to happen.
The Syrians had influence in Lebanon well before the army moved in. They will continue to have some influence although obviously without the army they can no longer enforce anything and have to resort to softer methods . Of course Hizbullah is not going to become their enforcer, but it still represents a powerful political force that is at least mildly pro-Syrian. Hariri's sister could become the next PM and she will ensure good relations with Hezbollah, and even with Syria, as long as Syria pulls out.
First things first, anyone notice that Tony posts 2 times? retarded?
anyhow, just a couple of questions:
1) where was the usa when the lebanese were raping one another? ran away i remember?
2) who supported syria's entry into lebanon? (other than the dick arab leaders)
3) where has the usa been for the past 20 years of the syrian (to make the lebanese feel happy -"occupation" ) Funny they should decide to do something about it now.
4) Syria needs hezbollah more and not vice versa? Isnt it a symbiotic relationship?
just some questions. i have more but ill leave them till later.
Also, its funny to see how lebanon has come to a standstill. a report says the pound is about to plummet once the central bank runs out of reserves in the upcoming week...back to dollars?
Oh yeah, the lebanese should wake up and stop leeching off the americans. They create problems, ask people for help, and then claim to have grown up. But i guess being the sleaziest of the arabs, and that the american ass is wide open for a lick, Go ahead, dont hold back.
As a Syrian I congratulate the Lebanese Friends who got back their houses and their lands from the Syrian regime under the name of their protection. I tell them that the Syrian people are joyful to see the smile on your faces as you walk into your longtime missed properties. We know how you feel.
here's the link you're looking for anon 1:39:
UN finds evidence of official cover-up in Hariri assassination
btw, what do you mean by 'drinking the neo-con koolaid?' it seems to me that you'd like to taint the Lebanese libaration by portraying them as some sort of US pawns--so, evidently *your* solution is to *not* 'drink the neo-con' koolaid, and keep things as they are? that's great, i'm sure that'd really teach Bush a lesson...
get a clue--Bush doesn't have anything to do with it, and is just trying to take credit for what the Lebanese people have done on their own!
Tony-
Did you learn English from the meanest person alive? I often agree with you, but it's infuriating to have you brand everyone you disagree with as an idiot. Therapy.
Tony,
The Commander-in-Chief and Chief-of-Staff are two different positions. The civilian politicians are theoretically in charge of the Army in a democracy such a Lebanon. Michel Sleimen is Chief-of-Staff but he should take orders from the President, just as the US military takes orders from the US president. In Great Britain it is the Prime Minister who is Commander-in-Chief.
This is one reason why the attack on Lahood as president is so important to the opposition. So long as he sits on top of Lebanon's security forces, Syria has an advantage. The Lebanese army will probably not move to suppress demonstrations on Lahoud's orders, but neither will it suppress Hizbullah. Perhaps it is useless.
All the same, when trying to calculate who controls the use of force in Lebanese society, these are important questions. If the opposition wants to get control of the Lebanese army it will gave to take the presidency first.
Now that the Christian militias have been disarmed, Hizbullah is the only other armed force in the country. That is why 1559 and closing down Hizbullah's military power is so important to the US. The opposition is frightened of pushing too hard on Hizbullah right now because it doesn't have military back up. It must go one step at a time and consider whether it wants US and French troops deployed in the country as several US think thanks are recommending.
We welcome any Western invasion of Lebanon; in fact, we are ready for them.
A Hezbollah supporter.
Note: I do not claim to be an official representative of the Hezbollah.
DavidW I'm not tainting the Lebanese opposition, I think they're brave and honorable people. I'm simply tainting Tony for his odd mix of neocon talking points and bizarre logic.
As for Fisk, he is not exactly a reliable source. He was not reliable when he was calling the US and Israel names, too.
I can't see the U.S. making a military move in Syria or Lebanon. There seems to be some sort of modis vivendi in place. I think the focus is still on Iraq, and what does bringing down Assad do?
If the U.S. wants to preserve its strategic interests through the promotion of democracy, maybe it should be putting more pressure on Saudi Arabia. The monarchy there is aging, and a fight for succession is likely in the absence of a democratic, constitutional process.
And does anyone want to speak for the human rights situation there? Can women vote? How about drive?
But the U.S. is silent on Saudi Arabia. I think it is a big mistake. Riyadh could go the route of Tehran circa 1979. No one saw it coming, but there it happened right before our eyes.
The only reason I can see to go after Syria is to send a message to Iran. But that is a long shot.
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