News Round Up: Nov. 30, 2005 - Hizb and Hussam

Nick Blanford has added some interesting observations on the Hizbullah-Syria connection, which I added to my original post: Hizbullah and Syria.

Many readers have asked whether I believe Hussam's testimony. The question is not whether I believe him; rather, it is that all his testimony is now highly suspect, which has done great damage to the Mehlis investigation and his preliminary findings. If the Lebanese see his Syrian evidence as reminiscent of a "Chinese style show trial," the Syrians find his Lebanon testimony reminiscent of George Bush's WMD hype. Yes, I thought Hussam giving his testimony was visually appealing, which has a big impact on the way he was interpreted here in Syria. I also found Colin Powell's testimony about Saddam Hussein's WMD in front of the UN visually appealing. I like Powell; he is a good messenger, but the message turned out to be false. What we are now left with in the Mehlis Report is that Syria had motive for wanting Hariri out of the way. We do not have more than that. We also had motive that Saddam wanted WMD, but he turned out not to have any. Let Mehlis continue his investigation.

Vienna Interrogation Delayed, Jumblat Warns Against Attempt to Rescue 4 Detained Generals
The interrogation of the five Syrian officers linked to Rafik Hariri's assassination has been delayed till next week, An Nahar reported on Wednesday....

"Returning the flavor to the Truth," by Joseph Samaha in As-Safir
Click here for source in Arabic: English from Mideastwire.com

On November 29, Joseph Samaha commented in the independent Lebanese newspaper As Safir that: "What Houssam Houssam said in the interview broadcasted by Syrian cable TV and then repeated in the news conference yesterday is literally the same as what he told the international committee investigating the assassination of prime minister Rafik Harriri except for one difference: Now he is claiming that what he told the investigative committee was forcefully taken from him under threat of force plus bribery and that he was taught what to say to the committee."

Samaha continued: "Houssam's claims are very serious. For the report delivered by Deitliv Mehlis to the Security Council about the investigation into the crime was based, at least in part, on two testimonies. The first was made by Mohammad Zouheir Al Seddike, witness now turned suspect, a man who is a known crook and who is also accused of being enticed with bribes to testify. The second was made by none other than Houssam Houssam himself who moved from the position of ally to the prosecution to the position of ally to the defense. It has to be admitted that without these two testimonies the report loses a lot of its credibility especially regarding possible suspects."

Samaha continued: "What Houssam did require that at least a modicum of regard be restored to the 'truth,' or as much of it as was uncovered by Deitliv Mehlis. But this regard cannot be restored with silence, or pretended ignorance or underestimation. Nor will it be restored with a few lines denying all that has been said or by pretending that the investigation is a train that cannot be derailed or slowed by anything until it reaches its final destination."

He continued: "The only way to restore some augustness to the truth is through utilizing complete transparency in the investigation coupled to a detailed and clear reply. We all followed, as much as it was possible, the effort put in by the international and Lebanese investigators, the techniques they used, and the questions they posed to try to solve this crime (who stands to benefit from the crime? Who are the agitators? What do the phone records tell us? What part was played by bribery and corruption? ) and it is now obligatory to expend a similar effort to validate or dismiss these statements by Houssam." - As Safir, Lebanon
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Investigation committee quashes Syrian witness' claims about his testimony
Click here for source in Arabic

A front-page article published on November 29 in the privately-owned Lebanese newspaper An Nahar reported that individuals accused by a controversial Syrian witness of having bribed him to give false testimony had refuted his claims.

"While Damsacus presented the statements of its citizen Hussam Taher Hussam yesterday… as proof of the collapse of the international investigation into the assassination of former prime minister Rafik Hariri, official Lebanese security sources revealed that Hussam had been in the custody of Lebanese Internal Security Forces, arrested on charges of fraud, a while before the assassination of Prime Minister Hariri and not after the assassination, as Hussam had claimed," the article said.

An Nahar added that Hussam was summoned yesterday by the Lebanese investigative magistrate, Elias Eid, to testify as a witness, but Hussam did not show up. "The statement issued by the international investigation committee, in response to the press conference which Hussam Taher Hussam had held in Damascus yesterday, revealed that he had showed up voluntarily before the committee, as attested by his written and certified statement, which refutes his subjugation to any threat, pressure or bribe. And the statement did not confirm that Hussam is the same person who was described as 'the masked witness'."

Meanwhile, Communications Minister Marwan Hamade, also refuted what Hussam had said in his press conference, describing Hussam's claims as "a comedy, and another ominous branch of the Syrian intelligence apparatus which, after having aggressed us with car bombs and threats, now turns to lies and a smear campaign through a person we have never seen before." Hussam claimed to have seen Hamade several times at the international investigation committee's headquarters. He accused Hamade of being one of those who instructed him to give a false testimony under pressure.

Similarly, An Nahar's Jibran Tueini also refuted the witness's statements, while the Syrian investigation committed questioned the credibility of the international investigation committee following the Hussam's statements, according to the An Nahar article. - An Nahar, Lebanon
[end]

Noureddine:"Lebanese less supportive of the resistance than ever before"
Click here for source in Arabic: Mideastwire.com

On November 29, Sateh Noureddine commented in the privately owned Lebanese newspaper As Safir that: "It cannot be claimed that Lebanon rose in unanimous defense and support for its resistance while it was facing the Israelis in tough battles last week. While the public scene of official and unofficial support was touching, the violations of this scene were wider and more serious than ever before."

He continued: "Disregarding the black pages written in Lebanese history by those who collaborated with the enemies and nearly shared power with them in the early 1980s, there was never any true Lebanese unanimity about the threat posed by Israel and the need to counter and resist it. Political speech was directed by the public sentiment of the majority and this plus the regional setting served to aid the resistance in liberating a major part of the Israeli occupied Lebanese territories.

"But this last episode left the impression that the resistance was on its own this time. The official statements released in support of the resistance were not totally convincing. This was partly due to a legitimate fear that the battles might rage far beyond the borders, but what is most disturbing is that this lack of support uncovered a deep hatred towards Hezbollah that goes beyond the fight against Israel and is due to the deep chasms in the fabric of the Lebanese society that have not mended since the withdrawal of the Syrians. The failure of the resistance's latest operation was used as an excuse to start stabbing the resistance in the back and to start looking for venues at which to discuss the "necessary" disarmament of the resistance in compliance with Security Council resolution 1559. Some even went so far as to predict the end of the resistance, which explains the severity of the speech made by the General Secretary of Hezbollah Hassan Nasrallah.

"What is certain is that the resistance is not as secure as it used to be, and Hezbollah is responsible for this development, because of its overblown victory speech back in 2000, because it surrendered to the allure of the 'military might that owns 14,000 missiles', and because they chose to leave the Lebanese accord at a very critical juncture in Lebanon's history to side with the traditional Syrian ally.

"But this doesn't mean that the resistance has lost or will lose its reason for being, especially for the people of southern Lebanon, who have always needed this invisible force to protect them against the Israeli oppressors, an invisible force that cannot be substituted even with the Lebanese army." - As Safir, Lebanon
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Hezbollah official reaffirms alliance with Iran, Syria
mideastwire.com

Lebanese Hezbollah's Al Manar TV reported on November 27 that: "Hashim Safiy-al-Din, chairman of Hezbollah Executive Council, has reaffirmed the resistance's alliance with both Syria and Iran. He considered this alliance as a natural outcome and that it has achieved tremendous results in the region. Al-Sayyid Safiy-al-Din added that there is no force that can steer Lebanon to the US-Israeli axis as some dream.

"While commemorating the one-week anniversary of the martyrdom of Yusuf Barakat [Hezbollah fighter who was killed in Hezbollah's clashes with the Israeli forces on November 21] in his hometown Zibqin in southern Lebanon, Safiy-al-Din said that the problem in Lebanon is that some parties have not yet changed their previous views. He wondered that if Lebanon, which is bounded by the sea and the Zionist entity, does not ally with Syria, what other countries [are] left to ally with.

"[Safiy-al-Din - recording] The decision of the resistance is linked in the first place to confronting the aggression. The beginning of resistance in the first place is linked to the presence of the aggression. As long as the aggression, occupation, threat and injustice are present, the resistance will continue its mission in the upcoming days, months and years. At this critical and intricate political period our region and country are going through, nobody should think that Lebanon changed its political position irrevocably or even think that they should think of other calculations. This has never taken place and it will never take place." - Al Manar, Lebanon
[end]

Razan Zeitouneh, Human Rights Lawyer Attacked by Judge

Razan Zeitounah, the human rights lawyer whom Joe Pace interviewed for Syria Comment and who runs the Syrian Human Rights Information Link (SHRIL)was attacked verbally by a High State Security judge this week and thrown out of court while she was trying to defend Nizar Rustnawi. This comes from Shril's news-Update 18/30-November- 2005

About the trial of Nizar Rustnawi:According to The Arab Organization for Human Rights in Syria, on November 20th, 2005, the designated day for the first session of the legal proceedings for Nizar Rustnawi (a member of The Arab Organization for Human Rights in Syria) in front of the High State Security Court in Damascus, some of the attorneys from the detainee’s (Rustnawi) defense team attended and attorney Razan Zeitounah was among them. The lawyers were shocked when the head of the court attacked Attorney Zeitouneh by directing repugnant expressions towards her which insulted her humanitarian dignity to say nothing of her being a lawyer, and then expelled her from the courtroom, which prompted the remaining lawyers to boycott the court.

The Arab Organization for Human Rights in Syria criticized the behavior of the court, considering what happened “a violation of Lawyers rights and the Judge’s neutralism”, and called upon the lawyers’ association and all official groups bearing a relationship to condemn this behavior and every like behavior in preservation of a lawyer’s dignity and respect, as well as for the protection of the sacred rights of defense and a lawyer’s honor from attack. The organization requests from the aforementioned responsible authority an apology for attorney Razan Zeitouneh.”

“Like the organization demands the immediate release of Nizar Rustnawi and all of the political prisoners in Syria, as well as the permanent closure of all political files dossiers.”

Dardari on the Economy: Is it possible?

Here are Dardari's economic projections. The numbers can be seen in different ways. Some of the investment in real-estate projects is fungible, such as the Emaar project recently announced. There is promise of big investment, but for the time being all these large firms are actually putting down is the price of the land. It then takes years to get all the permissions to build and the extent of the actually building will depend on how well initial investments do. Big talk is cheap - we want to see the buildings on the ground. There is no doubt that Syria could grow at these rates and has great potential, but Dardari's plans for liberalizing the legal infrastructure and ensuring a safe investment environment (this requires an independent judiciary) must be accomplished first. To do this Syria must have two things - political stability and the will to make real reform.

Syria Maintains Hariri Probe Hasn't Affected Foreign Investment
The U.N. probe into ex-Lebanese Premier Rafik Hariri's assassination has not hurt foreign investment in Syria, which is surging due to strong support from Gulf nations, a top Syrian official said in Malaysia Monday.
Foreign investment into Syria has risen to $1.8 billion through October, up 2 1/2 times from the $720 million for all of last year, said Deputy Prime Minister Abdullah al-Dardari, who is in charge of economic affairs.

Total private investment from all sources rose to US$6 billion ($5.1 billion) through the first 10 months, up from US$4 billion last year, he said.

"We have noticed an outpouring of Arab investment, especially from the Gulf, into Syria," al-Dardari told reporters after speaking at a business forum here. " Arab investors would like to see Syria strong and flourishing in the face of external pressure."

The government recently announced projects totaling US$ 5 billion (#4.23 billion) involving Gulf companies, and expects to unveil another US$ 1 billion (#847 million) worth of new Arab investment before the year-end, he added.

"Until now, we haven't seen any negative impact of the U.N. investigations and the political environment surrounding Syria on foreign investment in the country," al-Dardari said.

Al-Dardari said Syria has embarked on a new phase of economic reforms and liberalization, with plans to launch eight new industrial parks, new airports, infrastructure and technology projects.

"2005 is the turning point for private investment... after decades of centrally clamped economy with public-sector dominated activities," he said.

The government projects the economy will grow an average of 5 percent annually and accelerate to a 7 to 8 percent growth rate from 2010 to 2015, he said.(AP)

Naharnet: Beirut, Updated 28 Nov 05, 11:52

Hussam Taher Hussam, the 'Masked Witness'

How badly does the unveiling of the 'Masked Witness,' Hussam Taher Hussam, hurt the Mehlis Report? The Lebanese are claiming his Syria testimony is all crap in an effort to keep . Syrians have been loving it. I watched the series of interviews and the press conference with Hussam Taher Hussam, which have been continuously aired on Syrian TV yesterday. They were riveting TV. Hussam was good. He is smart and articulate in a "simple" way, peppering his responses with folksy aphorisms, which lent authority and seeming wisdom to normal Syrian talk. He didn't hesitate or look to the Syrian authorities sitting next to him for guidance in his testimony. He answered tough questions by journalists. He had clearly done his homework and was well prepared. He was also well groomed and had a youthful and energetic demeanor, which showed he had lived in Lebanon for a long time. The visual effect of seeing him answer the questions of Syrian and Lebanese journalists with spirit and confidence was powerful. Everyone here in Damascus was watching him and believing. Today, having been subject to the counter-attack from Lebanon, they are less sure.

What made Syrians believe him is that he was forthright about a number of small things most Syrians would hide. He said he had been working for Syrian intelligence while employed as a barber in Lebanon for over a decade. He said his Lebanese captors and handlers had treated him as a Kurd who could be easily bought, claiming that as a Kurd he should be against the government in Syria and that the Sunnis who are 80% of the Syrian population should be ruling and shouldn't let a minority of 10% rule them - a clear reference to the Alawites. The reason for making up such stories is obvious to non-Syrians, but to a Syrian, it made the speaker convincing because no Syrian would dare say such a thing on Syrian TV, even though the majority thinks just that. It is hard for a Syrian to believe that Hussam’s Syrian handlers would coach him to say something so forthright, because mentioning the issue of Alawi rule, even in such a case, is totally taboo. To hear someone mention Alawi rule on Syrian TV is a shocker. He was also forthright about the lures of money and the good life he was offered for his testimony. Syrians can identity with that.

What was not credible was his claim that Saad Hariri actually spoke to him about money. The Lebanese who prepared him for his false testimony were a "Whose Who" of Syria's enemies - Jubran Tueni, Saad Hariri, Walid Jumblat, etc. He even got May Shidiac’s name on record, claiming he had seen her from a distance while giving his false testimony at Monteverdi. (Shidiac denies even knowing where Monteverdi is.) None of these encounters would seem likely. The problem is that his testimony to Mehlis was exactly like his testimony against the Lebanese. He claimed to Mehlis that he had personal knowledge of all the top Syrian intelligence officers being involved in Hariri's murder. He also tied the Palestinians and fundamentalist Sunni Lebanese into the plot - much too neat. His Mehlis testimony was as fantastic as his testimony against Mehlis. The conclusion will have to be that he is completely discredited as a witness.

The most concrete evidence in Mehlis' report, directly linking the Hariri murder to the top Syrian intelligence personnel, is now unusable. Saddiq and Hussam were the two witnesses that allowed Mehlis to name the 6 top Syrian intelligence officers, including Maher and Asef, in his report. Both witnesses were plants. Stern magazine exposed Saddiq, who claimed he had been paid by Rifaat al-Asad, as a shyster. Now Syria has exposed Hussam.. My taxi driver yesterday said that Mehlis was not believable because three different people have said they were offered money to give him false testimony - the Syrian who languishes in a Turkish jail who went on TV to say he had been offered a lot of money to do what Mussam did, Saddiq, and now Hussam. This has become a pattern. Beginning with the double report issued by Mehlis - one naming names and the other not - and ending with Hussam's testimony, the Mehlis operation is beginning to look rather unprofessional. It is all getting curious and curiouser, as Alice said.

Whatever one may say about Syria’s use of Hussam, it has succeeded in punching a further hole in the original Mehlis report. It has also tarnished the image of Mehlis himself. No longer does he seem like the tough, Teutonic, no nonsense, investigator who can discriminate between wild stories and hard evidence. He used both Hussam and Saddiq’s testimony to spearhead his assault on Syria and give force to the list of names he insisted on investigating. That assault is looking a bit more questionable today. The testimony of both discredited Saddiq and Hussam was remarkably similar; it suggests that someone was working hard to put together evidence against Syria’s top officials and to link specific names to the more copious, but circumstantial evidence that a Syrian hand was behind Hariri’s killing. If it was not Hariri’s people, as Saad insists, who was it? Some good investigative reporter will make a name for themselves by getting that story.

Nibras Kazimi writes on his blog: "Confirmed: Hosam Taher is Mehlis' Witness No. 1." He quotes the parts of the Mehlis report that depended on Hosam's testimony. Here are the important bits:

96. One witness of Syrian origin but resident in Lebanon, who claims to have worked for the Syrian intelligence services in Lebanon, has stated that approximately two weeks after the adoption of Security Council resolution 1559, senior Lebanese and Syrian officials decided to assassinate Rafik Hariri. He claimed that a senior Lebanese security official went several times to Syria to plan the crime, meeting once at the Meridian Hotel in Damascus and several times at the Presidential Place and the office of a senior Syrian security official. The last meeting was held in the house of the same senior Syrian security official approximately seven to 10 days before the assassination and included another senior Lebanese security official. The witness had close contact with high ranked Syrian officers posted in Lebanon.

97. At the beginning of January 2005, one of the high ranked officers told the witness that Rafik Hariri was a big problem to Syria. Approximately a month later the officer told the witness that there soon would be an “earthquake” that would re-write the history of Lebanon.

98. The witness visited several Syrian military bases in Lebanon. At one such base, in Hammana, he observed a white Mitsubishi van, with a white tarpaulin over the flatbed. The observations were made on 11, 12 and 13 February 2005. The Mitsubishi left the Military base in Hammana on the morning of 14 February 2005. The Mitsubishi Canter van, which was used as the bomb carrier, entered Lebanon from Syria through the Bekaa border and a military hot lane on 21 January 2005, at 1320 hrs. It was driven by a Syrian Colonel from the Army Tenth Division.

Here is Katherine Zoepf's article in the New York Times, along with a few from al-Nahar. By the way, she is stuck in Lebanon. The Syrian government no longer issues visa's to Americans at the Lebanese border. They must be purchased in Washington. Friends of Katherine have interceded to get a special telegram from the Ministry of Information sent to the border crossing, permitting her to reenter the country. So be warned: don't try to get a visa at the border anymore.

Syrian Witness in U.N. Inquiry on Beirut Killing Reports Bribes
By KATHERINE ZOEPF
November 29, 2005

BEIRUT, Lebanon, Nov. 28 - A man claiming to be a former Syrian intelligence agent in Lebanon has said on Syrian state television that Lebanese officials tortured him and offered bribes to persuade him to present false testimony against Syria to a United Nations commission investigating the assassination of Rafik Hariri, the former Lebanese prime minister.

The man, Hussam Taher Hussam, said he had been held in Lebanon by supporters of Saad Hariri, the son of the former prime minister, and subjected to torture and drug injections to force him to testify. Saad Hariri, he said, offered him $1.3 million if he would lie about senior Syrian officials. Mr. Hussam did not say whether he had accepted any money.

Mr. Hussam, a slim, bespectacled Syrian Kurd, looked composed and unemotional as he spoke on a program originally broadcast Sunday.

He said Mr. Hariri and his associates had asked him to tell investigators that he had seen a truck used in the assassination at a Syrian military camp, and to present false evidence implicating Maher Assad, the younger brother of President Bashar al-Assad of Syria, and Asef Shawkat, the president's brother-in-law, in the killing in February.

"It was a ploy," Mr. Hussam said, adding that Mr. Hariri and his associates were desperate to accuse Syria. Syria agreed last week to allow five of its intelligence officials to travel to Vienna to be interviewed by Detlev Mehlis, the German prosecutor leading the inquiry. His findings are to be presented to the Security Council in mid-December.

In an interim version of the report, released last month, he presented evidence that strongly suggested that high-level Syrian officials were involved in planning the assassination.

Mr. Hussam was not identified as a witness in the interim report. However, the commission issued a statement confirming that he was a witness, saying he had come forward voluntarily. He told investigators several times that he feared that Syrian authorities would take revenge on him or his family, the statement said.

Saad Hariri's office issued a statement denying that there had ever been any contact between Mr. Hussam and Mr. Hariri or his associates.

Elie Fawaz, a Lebanese political analyst, said Mr. Hussam's television appearance had been widely mocked in Lebanon as a clumsy attempt by President Assad and his allies to discredit the investigation.

"The image that pops up in my mind is from Maoist China," Mr. Fawaz said. "Mao used to bring people forward and force them to publicly denounce themselves, and that's exactly what's happening now in Syria."

But Joshua Landis, a University of Oklahoma historian who is in Syria on a Fulbright research fellowship, said Mr. Hussam's story was playing well. "Everyone in Syria is watching it, and they're very excited," he said. "They love this stuff. They want to believe it."
Leena Saidi contributed reporting for this article.

U.S. Leaves it to Mehlis to Decide what is 'Credible and not Credible'
The United States has declined comment on Syria's call to revise the U.N. report on Hariri's murder after Damascus said a key witness had recanted.
Syrian officials said the findings by U.N. investigator Detlev Mehlis, which implicated Damascus, should be reviewed after their state television broadcast the so-called 'Masked Witness' testimony.

But State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said: "We'll let an independent investigator, Mr. Mehlis, make the decisions about what is credible and what is not credible and what should be included in his report."

"We have refrained, while he is working on his report, to comment on any potential preliminary findings or press accounts that may come out about the facts or alleged facts. So I'm not going to try to comment on those," McCormack said.

Syria's attack on the inquiry came a day before Mehlis' team was due to hold its first interviews with 5 senior Syrian officials at U.N. offices in Vienna, ending a prolonged wrangle over the venue for the interrogations.

McCormack said the Syrians "have apparently decided to cooperate by sending these witnesses to Vienna. We hope only that that cooperation continues and is expanded."(AFP-Naharnet) Beirut, Updated 29 Nov 05, 09:24

Lebanon Tears Syria's 'Masked Witness' to Pieces, Calling him a 'Ghawar Tosheh' Comedy
Lebanon lambasted Syria's 'Masked Witness' attempt to discredit the international investigation into Rafik Hariri's assassination on the eve of the interrogation in Vienna of five Syrian senior intelligence officers by the Detlev Mehlis commission.
"It is a Ghawar Tosheh comedy," said Telecommunications Minister Marwan Hamadeh.

"It's a new chapter of attempts by the dreaded Syrian intelligence service which has attempted to assassinate me. This apparatus has now moved into lying through a man whom we haven't seen in our lives or his life," Hamadeh added.

Saad Hariri said through his information office in Beirut that Syria's 'Masked Witness' TV show was an attempt to derail the international investigation into his father's murder.

Legislator Gebran Tueni whom the so-called 'Masked Witness' Husam Husam claimed to have seen at the Monteverde headquarters of the Detlev Mehlis commission said "If this is the latest inventions of the Syrian intelligence system to confront reality, I believe they are in a very bad situation. It's an affair of bankruptcy."

"I don't remember seeing him," the General Manager of An Nahar went on. "I would have hoped Syria would go to defend itself in the international investigation and to serve its own real interests as well as the welfare of the Lebanon-Syria relationship, because we do not differ with the Syrian people and because we are not in a state of war with the Syrian people."

May Chidiac, the LBCI anchorwoman who was maimed by an assassination attempt widely believed to have been engineered by Syria's intelligence, also denied from her hospital bed that she was seen or she has seen the 'Masked Witness' at the Monteverde.

"I don't know where the Monteverde is," May told LBCI.

Syria on Monday unmasked the 'Masked Witness' and put him on television to claim that he has tricked the Mehlis commission feeding them a long testimony and that he came now from his own volition to unveil what he called the truth to the Syrian committee of investigation. Beirut, Updated 29 Nov 05, 09:43

Shabaa Farms to become officially Lebanese: Prisoners

Shabaa Farms is to be officially ceded to Lebanon, Syria's foreign minister said. This is indeed important. It means Israel can now withdraw from the territory, which will take the issue away from Hizbullah, undermining its rational for maintaining an independent militia. Whether Israel will do this without a formal peace treaty with Lebanon remains to be seen. There was talk within Israel of doing this earlier in the year. It also means that a major issue that has kept Syria and Lebanon from developing normal relations has been resolved. There has also been progress on solving the problem of Lebanese prisoners being held in Syria, as well as those who have gone missing. The joint Syro-Lebanese committee slated to resolve these questions has begun to meet.

Syria Finalizes Shabaa's Lebanese Identity, Starting a 'New Page' with Lebanon

Syrian Foreign Minister Farouk al-Sharaa has declared in an address at the Euro-Med summit in Barcelona that the Shabaa Farms were Lebanese and earlier spoke of a new chapter in relations with Lebanon after the Syrian evacuation.
Sharaa's declaration came in the wake of a conference he held with Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Saniora on the sidelines of the summit after which Saniora told reporters that Sharaa will affirm Shabaa's Lebanese identity in his speech.

Saniora indicated the demarcation of the Lebanese Syrian border would produce a written document that the Shabaa pocket at the foothills of Mount Hermon was Lebanese, a turning-point which would help give Lebanon the absolute right to fight for its liberation from Israeli occupation.

In announcing the new phase in Lebanese-Syrian relations Sharaa said "we have embarked upon a new phase in our relations." "We want to open a new page," he said, adding that Syria "wants to see security and stability in Lebanon."

Saniora agreed progress had been made. "We want to have healthy and strong relations between the two countries," he said. "I had satisfactory talks with Saniora and President Assad will be very happy when I brief him about the talks" Sharaa added.

He made the remark in response to a question whether Assad would retract his insult to Saniora by recently calling him a 'slave.' "Syria is committed to collaborating with the international commission of investigation and resolved to uncover the truth behind the assassination, as both Syria and Lebanon, as neighboring and independent peoples, have a major interest in doing so," he said.

Sharaa added that both countries were allies "whose common interests are unlimited." Sharaa stressed that Damascus stood firm with its insistence on "a total Israeli withdrawal to the frontiers of June 4, 1967, including the Golan Heights and the Shabaa Farms, and the establishment of a Palestinian state with Arab Jerusalem as its capital."(AFP)
[end]

Naharnet: 11/28/05
Damascus and Beirut have opened a new phase of cooperation to determine the fate of hundreds of Lebanese missing or jailed in Syria during three decades of Syrian tutelage over Lebanon. A Lebanese-Syrian committee, charged with resolving the mystery that has become a major source of friction between the two neighboring
countries, held a three-hour meeting on the border point of Jdeidat Yabous Saturday, An Nahar reported.

The Lebanese delegation provided a detailed list of those missing and believed imprisoned in Syria, An Nahar reported Sunday. It did not provide details, but according to the families of the missing, there are more than 500 Lebanese unaccounted for since their arrest by Syrian security forces or disappearance in Syrian-held territory. The newspaper said the meeting was "constructive."

Hizbullah and Syria

Here is a question about Hizbullah I just received and my answer.

Dear Professor Landis,
In light of last week's border skirmish between Israel and Hezbollah I was hoping you could give your SyriaComment.com readers some insight on how much influence does Syria really wield over Hezbollah? Does the Syrian government/military encourage these military exchanges between Israel and Hezbollah? How does the non-Shiite Lebanon population feel about these flare-ups on the Israeli-Lebanon border?
[end]

Dear ...,
I don't know the answer to most of these Hizb questions. The Iranian foreign minister was just in Lebanon and Syria before the incident, but I think Hizb is working for domestic consumption as much as anything in order to keep the "resistance" in front of people's faces and to legitimize itself. Of course Syria is very happy for all Hizbullah's support of late. It and Amal have become the major defenders of Syria's interests and point of view in Lebanon. Now that the Syrian army has no sway over local Lebanese politics and trade issues are being sorted out, the Shiite parties remain the only effective supporters of Syria's interests and the major deterrent to Lebanon falling completely into the US's foreign policy orbit. Syria also sees Hizbullah as the ultimate deterrent to Lebanon signing a peace agreement with Israel, which would sink remaining hopes of ever getting the Golan back.

Israel's leaflet campaign over Beirut was a mistake, because it provoked a negative Lebanese nationalist response just when many Lebanese were decrying the Hizb provocations to Israel. When I was teaching in Lebanon in 1979-81, the Israeli jets that daily broke the sound barrier in low overflights of the city would drive my students berserk. Seniors in high school would all get out of their seats and rush to the windows of the classroom and pretend to shoot at the planes. There was nothing I could do to get them to ignore them or stay in their seats. Such overflights, which have been going on frequently of late, do a lot to underline how impotent the Leb gov. is in defending Lebanon's sovereignty in the face Israeli encroachments. They bolster Hizb rhetoric that it is still a necessary deterrent in the eyes of many Lebanese, especially Muslims.

In Syria, the public loves Hizbullah. Even Christians like it for the resistance part. The first word out of everyone's mouth is that Nasrallah gave his son to the fight - something no other Arab leader has done. They also love his pro-Syrian defense. He is the best thing Syria has going for it in Lebanon and the region and is wildly popular among Syrians for that. They see him as smarter, more media savvy, and more strategically minded than their own president.

As for Syria's role in arming Hizb, certainly, Syria used to be the conduit for Iranian arms getting to Hizb. How much of that is still going on, I don't know. Many people say Hizb has all the arms it needs, but we just don't know. I presume that when the Lebanese Army gets control of Lebanon's borders, it will stop the truck convoys that used to go over uncontrolled, much as it has done with the Palestinians, who have tried to smuggle arms across the border. The problem is that Hizb is so important in Lebanon and few Lebanese politicians are willing to cross it or announce in favor of disarmament. Even PM Siniora attacked UN's Larsen for quoting him in his last report to the effect that Siniora wanted to disarm Hizb.

Friends who just drove around the Beqaa valley, told me that there is marijuana still growing in many places and that Hizb troops are much in evidence and that the Lebanese army patrols do nothing to stop them from controlling the region, manning road blocks, and tending to the drug trade.

My hunch is that Hizb has now become a Lebanese problem. Syria will help it as much as it can, which should be easy so long as the Lebanese army considers the hizb militia legitimate. All the same, Lebanon has been making real improvements to border security. Even Hizb must find it hard to have trucks pass without inspection, but that is something the Lebanese government will ultimately determine and not the Syrian government.
Best, Joshua

Addendum by Nick Blanford sent Nov. 29, 05

Hi Josh,
I thought I would comment on your remark about the Syrian arms channel to Hizbullah. Although much of the general weapons were trucked across the border via the privileged "military" crossing at Masnaa, Hizbullah also received arms via a remote border crossing along the Zabadani-Serghaya-Nabi Sheet road. The area east of Nabi Sheet in the Bekaa is a Hizbullah-controlled zone and includes the small villages of Yanta and Yahfoufa set in a stunningly beautiful valley. I was up there in June nosing around to see how far one could drive along the road before being stopped. The road ends at Yahfoufa beside the ruins of an old Ottoman railway station. The border is about another kilometer or so. I was invited into the house of a Hizbullah guy for coffee and he told me that if I had arrived at night I would have been stopped by armed Hizbullah men who patrol the area. If Hizb really possesses all those long-range rockets we hear so much about, this is where they will have stashed the rockets away, in caves and bunkers dug into the mountainside. The Lebanese government has no jurisdiction to speak of in this remote area and if the Syrians are willing to continue supplying Hizb with weapons, they will face no impediment along this stretch of the border.
best, Nick

Asef isn't Going to Vienna: Asad Family Safe for Now

Ibrahim Hamidi of al-Hayat gets the scoop again. Asef Shawkat, the president's brother-in-law and head of military intelligence, is not among the five security officers slated to go to Vienna for questioning about the murder of Hariri.

The house of Asad is not in the clear yet. We are only at the beginning of the second phase of the UN investigation, which has targeted the Syrian government as the guilty party. All the same, the Asad family does seem to have dodged a bullet in this round. I watched the news conference with 6 Syrian friends last night in which Walid Muallem and Riad Daoudi answered the question that every Syrian has been waiting for - Will Syria be sanctioned by the world? When it was announced that Syria was cooperating, everyone cheered. When it was announced that Mehlis had made important concessions, everyone smiled.

Since October 30 when UN Security Council unanimously passed resolution 1636, demanding that Syria hand over is top six security officers for questioning in the murder of Rafiq Hariri, the country has been burning with anxiety and fear. Would it become a legal and not just presumed pariah state? Had Bashar al-Asad, the young and seemingly weak president, allowed his country to be backed into a corner by the United States, Lebanon, and France? Would Bashar allow a family member to be questioned and possibly arrested? Could Syria become the next Iraq - completely ostracized and left to starve under international sanctions until internal collapse, public revolt, or foreign invasion brought revolution? These are the questions that have been the debated in Damascus by a population cut off from decision making both at home and abroad. The President's speech on November 10 only heightened the anxiety. By calling for resistance to what he described as an American-Israeli plot to bring down his family and turn Syria into another Iraq, everyone began to assume he would allow pride to jeopardize the nation. In many respects Mehlis has pitted the Asad family against the Syrian people. After all, the Syrian government has been a family enterprise for decades.

When the preliminary Mehlis report was first published, it named two Asads, Maher and Asef, the president’s brother and brother-in-law, as suspected accomplices in Hariri’s murder. President Bashar had refused to testify, but John Bolton, the neo-con US ambassador at the UN proclaimed that with resolution 1636 even Bashar would be subject to questioning. Observers could only interpret the report as a full broadside against the Syrian state. Could the US and its allies possibly believe they could force the entire Asad family into the clink? Was this regime-change on the cheap? What if the Asads said no? Would the world community do what they did to Saddam Hussein? Could they possibly afford another failed nation in the Middle East at a time when Iraq seemed to be spiraling towards total collapse?

After resolution 1636 was passed, Mehlis seemed to have made an important concession. He demanded to question only 6 witnesses and only one relative of the President. Maher, the President’s brother, was curiously dropped from the list of suspects. The French, who seemed to have assumed control of policy planning for the West by this time, began to whisper that they had a “Juan Carlos option,” a reference to the King of Spain. It seemed that they hoped they could turn Syria into some form of constitutional monarchy. They had lowered the bar of expectations – not total regime change, but partial. The president would have to give up some of his family – the non blood relatives - but not Maher, the head of the Palace Guard. If only he would abandon the family structure, abandon “tribalism” and make a democratic opening toward the reformers and clear the decks of crony capitalists to usher in the free air of the market economy, all would be well. Syria would have made its “strategic decision” to fall into step with the rest of the region and become part of the reformed Greater Middle East. This seemed to be the implication of Western rhetoric and reveries.

These magnificent dreams were dowsed with cold water by Asad’s speech of November 10. He identified his family with the nation and proclaimed there was no third way for Syria. He would not allow family members to be picked off by bullies; it was a question of national sovereignty, honor and self defense. Syria had but two options, he stated, resistance or chaos. Stand by the Asad household in its entirety or be sent down the ugly spiral towards Iraqification, sectarian violence, poverty, and terrorism.

President Bashar defied the world. Many in the West, and some in the East, thought the man had gone crazy. It was the “Lethal Weapon” gambit – look crazy and go for broke, like Mel Gibson in "Lethal Weapon," in the hope that your opponents don’t really have the heart or brazenness for a showdown. Pray that they are bluffing. This foreign policy strategy has been mastered by George Bush, who has own over the last 5 years. Now we must add Bashar al-Asad to the list of those with a taste for brinksmanship.

It worked. Well, it seems to have worked at any rate. The world backed down and the Asad family has been let off the hook. More and more western powers seem to be convinced by Bashar’s logic. Syria just might become another Iraq without the firm hand of the Asads at the top. Many factors seem to have played a role in this climb-down by the West. Bush is wounded at home, and Iraq is a horror show, voiding early threats of US military action against Syria. The Jordan bombings made the Asads look good and reminded the world that Iraq may well become the spawning ground of terror that we have feared. Syria, by contrast, has seen no serious terrorism for over twenty years, making it the only state in the region which can boast such stability and anti-al-Qa’ida credentials. Even Israel began to sing the praises of the house of Asad, claiming it was the least bad choice for the Jewish state.

The Syrian opposition did not play into Western hands. The Labwani trail balloon popped without an echo. Bush's suggestion that he would add the banner of democracy to the standards of foreign policy reform which he expects Damascus to fly over its ramparts did not impress the Syrians. They remained sullen and anti-American, proving that Washington has few instruments to divide Syria from within. Whether Syrians are too distrustful of the US, too frightened to complain, or too disinterested in democracy, they remained impervious to Washington's probings. America doesn't have tools to use in Syria. Its tool box is empty.

Kofi Annan, the beleaguered head of the UN, seems to have used his last bits of political capital to intercede on Syria’s behalf, insisting that Mehlis find some middle ground. Saudi Arabia and Egypt, the heart of the Arab League, said they were not in favor of sanctions even though they insisted Syria cooperate with the UN. Turkey chimed in with a similar refrain, arguing that the region could not withstand further chaos and conflict. The PKK has regrouped, and violence is on the upswing in the east of Turkey. Rumors in Syria suggest the Syrian branch of the PKK is also recruiting and again becoming a force. Should Asad weaken, militant Kurdish organizations, such as the PKK, will prosper and both Syria and Turkey will have a real head ache. Asad plans to redeploy thousands of Syrian troops into the northeast of the country at the start of the new year in order to ensure a tight grip on the region. That is what I hear. I cannot be sure it is true, but it would make sense, not only to reassure Turkey, but also to place the kind of iron grip on the border regions with Iraq that both Washington and Baghdad have been demanding.

Russia and China were early opponents of sanctions. Quite possibly the US and France discovered that no one, not even Europe, had the heart for sanctions, except possibly sanctions that were so “smart” as to be but a pin prick, in which case, why act tough when there is no credible follow through?

There is also always the possibility of a deal. Asef Shawkat is Mr. Security in Syria and has been the main link between US and Syrian intelligence. He is in a position to have hung out some tempting offers to the West on Iraq, Palestine, and even Lebanon. It is unlikely that the West would make a deal or open a real dialog with Syria at this point, but one should not assume that messages weren’t passed to Paris and Washington via Egypt, Saudi, and Turkey that Syria means business on issues close to the Western heart. But the deal scenario has probably not been the driving force behind the Mehlis mollifications. Most likely, local powers with a lot at stake in regional stability made it clear to both sides that a compromise had to be worked out because the region cannot withstand more upset.

Rhonda Roumani's article in the Washington Post, "Syria Will Let U.N. Question 5 Officials: Deal Ends Stalemate in Hariri Probe - isthe best of the stories in English.

Here are the good parts of Hamidi's article:

ورفض كل من نائب وزير الخارجية السوري وليد المعلم والمستشار القانوني في الوزارة رياض الداودي في مؤتمر صحافي مساء امس، ذكر اسماء المسؤولين الخمسة او ان يكون أي من الاسماء اسقط من القائمة.

لكن مصادر سورية رفيعة المستوى قال لـ»الحياة» امس ان «دمشق لم تطرح مع أي طرف موضوع الاسماء، بل موضوع الاجراءات والضمانات»، قبل ان يشير الى ان اسم رئيس شعبة الاستخبارات اللواء اصف شوكت «لم يكن مطروحا»، نافية حصول «أي صفقة». وقال المعلم مرات عدة للصحافيين :»لم يسقط أي اسم» من القائمة.

وكان تردد في وسائل الاعلام ان الخمسة هم الرئيس السابق لجهاز الاستطلاع والامن في القوات العاملة في لبنان العميد رستم الغزالي، ومسؤول بيروت العميد جامع جامع، ومسؤول في المخابرات العسكرية العقيد عبد الكريم عباس ومسؤول قسم الكمبيوتر العقيد ظافر عباس، اضافة الى رئيس فرع الامن الداخلي السابق اللواء بهجت سليمان. ورفض الداودي ذكر الاسماء لانها جزء من «سرية التحقيق». وقال ردا على سؤال لـ»الحياة» ان بعض الخمسة مشتبه بهم وبعضهم الاخر شاهد.

وقبل ان يبلغ الداودي ميليس قرار دمشق، ترأس الرئيس بشار الاسد امس اجتماعين للقيادة القطرية لـ»البعث» الحاكم وللقيادة المركزية لـ»الجبهة الوطنية التقدمية» التي تضم الاحزاب المرخصة. وقالت مصادر مطلعة لـ»الحياة» ان الاسد وضع كبار المسؤولين «في جو المعطيات فتقرر اتخاذ هذه الخطوة الممتازة». واوضحت :»تم قطع مرحلة مهمة، كانت تشكل عقبة اساسية. لكن ربما تظهر عقبات اخرى لاحقا».

وقال المعلم في المؤتمر الصحافي :»ان الخطوة الحكيمة والشجاعة التي اتخذتها سورية تسقط كل الذرائع» لفرض عقوبات اقتصادية عليها. واوضح ردا على سؤال اخر :»اذا كان الهدف كشف الحقيقة، نحن مستعدود للتعاون الكامل لكشفها». وعندما سئل عن موقف سورية اذا كانت مستهدفة سياسيا، فاجاب :»شعبنا كفيل بالمواجهة».

وكان لافتا ان القرار السوري جاء بعد يوم على اعلان وزير الخارجية فاروق الشرع ان بلاده تريد توقيع بروتوكول تعاون مع ميليس يحدد الحقوق القانونية للمسؤولين السوريين ويحدد آليات ومعايير التعاون. ويبدو ان حصول دمشق على ضمانات بفضل اتصالات سياسية قام بها عدد من الاطراف، لعب دورا في الاقتناع بالحل الوسط بان تجري الاستجوابات في فيينا وليس في»مونتي فيردي» او «اندوف» في سورية.

واوضح المعلم ان الضمانات تشمل حضور محامين مع المسؤولين السوريين وان تكون صلاحية التوقيف محصورة بالقضاء اللبناني الذي يمكن ان يطلب من القضاء السوري اتخاذ الخطوات الاحترازية.

واوضح الداودي ان الاتصالات ستجري في الايام المقبلة لتحديد مواعيد حصول الاستجوابات وكيفية سفر المسؤولين. وعندما سالته «الحياة» ما اذا كان الخمسة مشتبها بهم او شهودا، اجاب :»في التحقيق تسمية شخص مشتبها به او شاهدا لا يعني ان التحقيق يتقدم، بل ان هذا الشخص له علاقة اكثر من الاخر، وفرضية البراءة قائمة بالكامل في كل مرحلة وان الموضوع لا يرقى الى مرحلة الاتهام الا بتوافر المعطيات القانونية والادلة القاطعة التي تقدم الى المحكمة من قبل قاضي التحقيق». وزاد :»حتى اذا وصل الامر الى الاتهام، فان فرضية البراءة قائمة».

وفي نيويورك، أكد الناطق باسم الأمين العام للأمم المتحدة ستيفان دوجاريك الاتفاق بين الحكومة السورية وبين ميليس. وقال: «في استطاعتنا ان نؤكد ان فيينا ستكون مقر استجواب خمسة مسؤولين سوريين». واضاف الناطق ان الامين العام «مسرور جداً بالتوصل الى اتفاق على ان يكون مقر الاستجواب مكاتب الأمم المتحدة في فيينا».

وقالت مصادر في الأمم المتحدة مطلعة على تفكير دميليس «ليس هناك اي ضمانات مفتوحة الأفق بعدم الاعتقال» في حال ثبت تورط الذين سجري ميليس اللقاءات معهم والذين صنفهم ميليس «مشتبهاً بهم» في عملية الاغتيال.

وأضافت المصادر ان موافقة ميليس على استجواب خمسة من قائمة ستة مسؤولين أمنيين تأتي «كجزء من عملية». ولفتت الى ان الأمم المتحدة لم تكشف اسماء الستة بصورة علنية ورسمية مما يمكن ميليس من تقديم قائمة «بفوج» آخر من «المشتبه بهم» لاحقاً. وقالت أن ميليس قرر الموافقة على استجواب «خمسة» فقط في فيينا كنقطة انطلاق.

وبحسب المصادر المطلعة على تفكير القاضي الالماني «أراد ميليس ان يبرهن انه، منذ البدء، يتصرف بليونة وليس بتعنت كما حاولت سورية أن تقول وكررت ذلك اول من أمس على لسان وزير الخارجية» الشرع.

وضمن ما تراه هذه المصادر «ليونة واضحة» من ميليس موافقته على نقل مكان التحقيق من «مونتي فيردي» في بيروت الى مقر الأمم المتحدة في فيينا، وقبوله باستجواب خمسة من الستة مسؤولين أمنيين، وموافقته على عدم اصدار مذكرات اعتقال في فيينا.

وشددت المصادر على أن التعهد هو بعدم اعتقالهم «فقط وحصراً في فيينا» اذ «ليست هناك ضمانات بأنه لن تكون هناك اعتقالات مستقبلاً... وليس هناك أية ضمانات مفتوحة الأفق بعدم الاعتقال». وحسب مصادر أخرى «لا توجد هناك أية ضمانات».

وفي بيروت علّق ناطق باسم لجنة التحقيق الدولية على الاعلان السوري بالقبول بالاستماع الى المسؤولين السوريين في فيينا بالقول إن ميليس «يرحّب به ويعبّر عن تقديره لكل الافرقاء الذين عرضوا مقرات في سبيل هذا العمل (التحقيق)». وأشار النائب الى ان ترحيب ميليس جاء «لأن الخطوة السورية تأتي في سياق تنفيذ قرار مجلس الأمن الدولي ونحن مسرورون بالاعلان السوري». ورداً على سؤال حول سبب إشارة الجانب السوري الى خمسة ضباط سوريين وليس ستة، قال الناطق باسم اللجنة ان لا تعليق حول التفاصيل. وعن موعد حصول الاستجوابات قال الناطق باسم اللجنة: «هذا أيضاً من التفاصيل المتصلة بسرية التحقيق».

وكان المحققون الدوليون استمعوا أمس الى كل من رئيس الاتحاد العمالي العام غسان غصن ونائبه بسام طليس في شأن اتصالات هاتفية جرت معهما من قبل رئيس جهاز الاستطلاع السوري في القوات السورية التي كانت في لبنان العميد رستم غزالة للدعوة الى اسقاط حكومة الشهيد الحريري في العام 2004 بالتظاهر في الشارع.

وذكرت مصادر مواكبة للتحقيق ان المحققين الدوليين سيواصلون الاستماع الى شهود ومشتبه بهم لاتخاذ قرار في شأن توقيف أو عدم توقيف بعضهم. واستمع المحقق العدلي اللبناني في جريمة اغتيال الحريري أمس الى إفادات أربعة شهود جدد أمس.

وفي باريس علمت «الحياة» من مصدر فرنسي موثوق به ان اللجنة القضائية الفرنسية لتبادل الموقوفين التقت امس السوري محمد زهير الصديق المشتبه به في قضية اغتيال الحريري، والموقوف حاليا في العاصمة الفرنسية بناء على طلب القضاء اللبناني. وقال المصدر ان اللجنة ستعطي رأيها الاسبوع المقبل.

وكان لبنان طلب استرداد الصديق من فرنسا، علما انه لا يوجد اتفاق لتبادل المطلوبين بين البلدين. وذكرت المصادر انه نظرا الى غيالب مثل هذا الاتفاق، تدرس اللجنة الفرنسية امكان تسليم المطلوب الى القضاء اللبناني. واضافت ان فرنسا لا تمانع في التسليم، لكن الخطوة تواجه عائقا مرده الى كون عقوبة الاعدام ما تزال قائمة في القانون اللبناني في حال الادانة بتهمة القتل.

Syria Will Send 5 to Vienna. Will Asef be among them?

At 6:00 this evening, Syrian Deputy Foreign Minister Walid Muallem announced on a much awaited TV briefing that the questioning of five officials would be carried out at UN offices in Vienna. Everyone in Damascus is very relieved. Many believed that Syria and Mehlis would not come to an agreement and that Syria would be facing sanctions. Business men had been complaining that the Syrian pound had fallen to 59 to the dollar, its lowest rate, and was impossible to buy on the markets. Tomorrow, it should be strengthened and merchants who were holding back their dollars will now sell.

The big question of the evening was why only 5 and not 6 would be going. At least six reporters asked who the missing person was - all believing it was Asef Shawkat, the President's brother-in-law. None had the guts to ask directly or use his name. When Muallem responded by denying that 6 had ever been demanded, but only 5, everyone laughed. The following BBC story suggests that Asef will be going, but everyone in Damascus assumes he will not be among the five, and that the president was able to avoid sending anyone from his family, the "red-line," which everyone has been talking about here. Syrians are feeling relieved that their government is cooperating and has protected the people from sanctions. Undoubtedly, the security forces will be peeved if Asef has been saved from questioning, but they have not been. Now we must wait to see if Mehlis will be satisfied with their testimony. In all probability, he will accuse Syria of planning the murder. Then the government will be back to square one and will have to decide whether to give them up to a court. The crisis is far from over. All the same, Syria did well to reduce the number being questioned from 6 to 5, and to get a lawyer for each of those being questioned. Bolton said he was pleased.


UN probe to quiz Syrian officials

Syria has agreed to allow UN investigators to quiz its officials over the assassination of ex-Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. Syrian Deputy Foreign Minister Walid Muallem said the questioning of five officials would be carried out at UN offices in Vienna.

He said Syria had been given "reassurances" on its sovereignty. The announcement follows weeks of deadlock between the UN investigation and Syria on the issue.

Syria had refused a request by German prosecutor Detlev Mehlis, who is heading the inquiry, to carry out the interviews in Lebanon. Mr Mehlis was unwilling to accept a Syrian offer to allow questioning either in Syria itself or at the Arab League headquarters in Cairo.

"The [Syrian] leadership has decided to inform Mehlis that it accepts his suggestion, as a compromise, that the venue to listen to the five Syrian officials be the UN headquarters in Vienna," Mr Muallem said.

UN spokeswoman Marie Okabe said Mr Mehlis confirmed the agreement in a telephone call to UN Secretary General Kofi Annan.

One potential sticking point remains, says the BBC's Jon Leyne in neighbouring Jordan.

The UN originally said it wanted to speak to six Syrian officials, but Syria is talking of five officials travelling to Vienna, he says.

Mr Muallem told reporters: "Me, I know that the number is five. I don't know where you get the sixth from."

He also said Damascus was not worried that the officials, who are travelling with their lawyers, would be arrested in Vienna.

"Mr Mehlis doesn't have the authority to arrest [them]. He must ask the Lebanese judicial authorities who will then ask Syria," he said.

Mr Muallem would not identify the officials involved, saying it was a matter of the "secrecy of the investigation", or say when the interviews might take place.

Reports from Lebanon suggest the officials include the head of Syrian military intelligence, Assef Shawkat, a brother-in-law of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

Moubayed and Abdulhamid on where Syria is headed

Monday 21 of November, two Syrian soldiers were badly wounded by US soldiers on the border. The Americans were carrying out activities on the border and they shot in the direction of Syrian soldiers. They returned fire. Two Syrian soldiers were shot by sharp shooters. They were taken to the hospital at Bu Kamal and then to the hospital at Deir ez-Zor. One reporter here also said that Syrian soldiers then returned fire and blew up a hummer which might have had up to six Americans in it. Presumable they were killed. There are several reporters trying to confirm this story.

Sami Moubayed and Ammar Abdulhamid go head to head in their contrasting analysis of the Syrian opposition and how Syria will bear up under international pressure. Sami believes Syrians will pull together to back the government for fear of becoming another Iraq and that Bashar will reach out to the Muslim Brotherhood and "nationalist opposition," in order to keep them close and avoid their cooperating with the US.

Ammar writes that the "Syrian regime is no longer viable, and that a search for an alternative is now not only legitimate, but mandatory," in order to "prevent the creation of another haven for jihadists and terrorists." Although he does not rule out the case for military action, he argues that "the downfall of the Syrian regime is better induced through a combination of diplomatic pressures, targeted economic sanctions and various activities and gestures meant to empower the internal opposition in the country and perhaps also the growing disaffection within the middle ranks of the army." Interestingly Israeli Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz told cabinet colleagues Sunday that Syria would "likely" soon be forced to abandon its support for terrorism. He holds a view opposite to Ammar's about Syria becoming a haven for terrorism. If Ammar has a particularly bleak view of where Syria is headed, Sami is perhaps too optimistic. The government is not likely to make any real opening toward the opposition. Nevertheless, the mere fact that the opposition refuses to reach out to the Americans, who, they consider beyond the pale, means it is boxed in. Here are the two articles:

Making new friends in Damascus?
By Sami Moubayed
Al-Jazeera
Thursday 24 November 2005

A few years ago, the term nationalist opposition was introduced to Syria by President Bashar al-Assad. This means "opposition that has no ties with foreign parties". Mainly, this meant everybody except the Muslim Brotherhood and the Reform Party of the US-based Farid al-Ghadry.

The Muslim Brotherhood had received money and arms from neighbouring Arab countries in 1982 to topple the Syrian government and al-Ghadry has been collaborating with the Americans since 2003 for the same purpose.

Previously, there was no "nationalist opposition" in Baathist Syria. The opposition, regardless of its ties or orientation, was always considered unpatriotic, and its leaders were described as enemies of nationalism, the state and the Syrian people.

That time has long passed and Syrian politicians today have been trying to reach out to various groups in the opposition, aiming at acheiving national unity to ward off US pressure mounted after the assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq al-Harriri on 14 February 14 2005.

The Syrians have realised that the only way to avoid further isolation is to establish a united front inside Syria, where the Baathists and all their traditional enemies (the Muslim Brotherhood included) can work together.

After all, the opposition might be opposed to the government for a variety of political reasons, but it is by far more opposed to the United States. This opposition includes the Communist Party, Marxists, founding Baath Party members and the Muslim Brotherhood.

Syria's rapprochement with the "nationalist opposition" was begun by al-Assad when he came to power on 17 July 2000.

On 22 July seven days after he began his constitutional term as president, al-Assad released 30 members of the Muslim Brotherhood from prison.

Another gesture included the return of Abu al-Fateh Baynouni, the brother of the Brotherhood's leader, Ali Sadr al-Din al-Baynouni, from exile in September 2001.

The ban on the scholarly works of Mustafa al-Sibaei, the founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, was lifted after being on the Baath blacklist for over four decades.

President al-Assad then issued a general amnesty in the summer of 2000, releasing 600 political prisoners, 90% of them were from the Muslim Brotherhood.

In November 2001, al-Assad released another 113 Muslim Brotherhood members, most of whom were arrested in 1979 for a massacre they had conducted at an artillery school in Aleppo in 1979.

In December 2004, 112 Muslim Brotherhood members were also released. Another 55 prisoners were set free, mostly from the Brotherhood, on 12 February 2005.

The Brotherhood found more reason to cooperate [with the Syrian government] when al-Assad refused to join in the US-led war in Afghanistan in 2001, and Iraq in 2003.

They hailed his commitment to the Palestinian uprising, and his support for Hamas, Islamic Jihad and the Hizb Allah in Lebanon.

Both al-Assad and the Muslim Brotherhood have repeatedly said that democracy cannot be imported to the Arab world from the US, nor can it be imposed by President George Bush.

The only way to democratise is from within the Arab world by the Arabs themselves, they often said. This view is shared by a vast majority of Syrians and Arabs.

The Muslim Brotherhood also hailed al-Assad's refusal to abide by American terminology on terrorism, vis-a-vis Hizb Allah and the Palestinian resistance, and his declared commitment to restore the Golan Heights to Syria, and Jerusalem to the Palestinians.

One week after the fall of Baghdad in April 2003, members of the Muslim Brotherhood appeared on Aljazeera and called for dialogue with Damascus, refusing to use the US campaign against Syria to settle old differences with the regime.

They stressed, in interviews and press releases, that there was no Ahmed Chalabi among the Syrian opposition. This notion was repeated by opposition members inside Syria, thereby earning the title of "nationalist opposition".

The message was taken by authorities who responded with similar goodwill, permitting many members of the Muslim Brotherhood, who had lived in asylum in Iraq, to return to Syria after the invasion in March 2003.

After that, these dissidents were not arrested or harassed in Syria, as long as they did not engage in illegal political conduct (by law, the Muslim Brotherhood is a banned organisation).

Between 2003-2005 domestic political reforms stalled in Syria as a result of Syria's entanglement in a web of complex issues, related to Iraq and Lebanon.

Soon enough, the Muslim Brotherhood raised its anti-government rhetoric, much to the displeasure of Damascus. In May 2005, the writer Ali al-Abdullah, a member of the Jamal al-Atasi Forum, read a speech sent to the forum by Baynouni from London. Immediately, the Syrian authorities ordered his arrest.

The forum founders cried foul and the authorities requested that they issue an official apology, saying that they had not intended to spread Muslim Brotherhood propaganda in Syria - by law 49 being a member of the Brotherhood, or spreading its views, was a capital offence. When they refused, they too were arrested.

The arrests, which included the forum's president Mrs Suhayr al-Atasi, and the veteran Baathist Husayn Uweidat, gave the Syrian authorities bad publicity. They were released after one week but Abdullah remained in jail until November 2005.

The government knew that arresting these people was going to give it very bad publicity, especially now that the world's attention was focused on Syria. But this was a price it was willing to pay to send a clear message to everybody: that the Muslim Brotherhood and political Islam were a red line that nobody could cross in Syria.

To make this point loud and clear at the Baath Party Congress in June 2005, authorities said they would formulate a new multi-party law, ending the socialist monopoly over political life in Syria (existing since 1963).

Parties not affiliated with the Baath would be allowed to operate. The only exception would be the Muslim Brotherhood and other Muslim parties.

The calls for abolishing law 49, which had been proposed by the moderate Muslim cleric and parliamentarian Mohammad Habash, faded out in the weeks preceding the Baath Party congress.

The publication of the Mehlis report in October and the subsequent adoption of UN Resolution 1636 have made the Syrians put aside their differences and unite in opposing foreign pressure on their country.

Marches, anti-US demonstrations, and rallies condemning Mehlis have become a daily scene in Damascus.

Syrian nationalism is soaring and the majority of Syrians feel that it is their duty to stand by the government at this difficult stage because although they might have reservations about the government's actions, they would not want it to be weakened or removed by the US.

Those who have second thoughts are asked to look next door and see the chaos prevailing in Iraq to see how un-rewarding it would be to side with the Americans.

The government has embarked on a series of reforms intended to reduce, in anticipation of eliminating, any reasons for discontent in the Syrian Street. The authorities are planning to raise wages, authorise bank loans facilities and create more jobs.

The Brotherhood found more reason to cooperate [with the Syrian government] when al-Assad refused to join in the US-led war on Afghanistan in 2001, and Iraq in 2003

On the political front, the government issued a general amnesty in November 2005, releasing 190 political prisoners, mainly from the Muslim Brotherhood.

Many expected that the two famous parliamentarians, Riyad Sayf and Maamoun al-Homsi, would be released. They were not, probably, because the government did not want any big names to make headlines, except those of the Brotherhood. The state was sending a clear message: we are releasing what remains of the Muslim Brotherhood from Syrian jails.

The reason is that owing to the increasing religiosity in Syria society, the only party which can truly and genuinely mobilise the street are the Muslim groups.

The Muslim Brotherhood, and a variety of other opposition groups in Syria, issued an opposition document called The Damascus Declaration in October 2005, right after Detlev Mehlis issued his report, criticising the government for stalled political reforms.

The authorities surprised everybody by refusing to arrest or harass any of the politicians who signed the document.

Then, in another gesture of goodwill towards the Brotherhood, al-Assad had an unofficial conversation with members of the Arab Nationalist Congress meeting in Damascus shortly after his speech at Damascus University on 10 November 2005.

The speech, it must be noted, made no reference whatsoever to the Muslim Brotherhood. Al-Assad reportedly told his guests that he does not have a problem with anybody who opposes the government politically.

The government only has a problem "with those who collaborate with Syrias enemies". This was a clear message to the US-based al-Ghadry. Al-Assad added that he is willing to conduct dialogue with everybody, including the Muslim Brotherhood.

It is a new atmosphere in Syria. It will be worth watching how Syria will deal with the Brotherhood in the months to come since all indicators, including the Syrian president's Damascus University speech, suggest that Syria's relations with Washington will deteriorate rather than improve.

Sami Moubayed is a Syrian political analyst. He is the author of Steel & Silk: Men and Women Who Shaped Syria 1900-2000 (Cune Press 2005)
[end]

WHY WE NEED YOUR SUPPORT?
A new Iraq is forming in Syria

By Ammar Abdulhamid
Commentary in the Daily Star, Friday, November 25, 2005

Although Syria has for long been hailed as one of the Arab world's most secular countries and the heart of Arab nationalism, its religious and ethnic diversity has always been more complex than this image suggests. The northeastern parts of Syria are inhabited mostly by Kurds and Assyrians, while the society's allegedly secular character has reflected, in reality, an informal though complex arrangement between the various religious groups in the country. In recent decades, the arrangement has involved, in particular, the majority Sunni population and the Alawite minority.

The arrangement was first introduced by President Hafiz Assad. It allowed, in essence, a core of Alawite officers to control the country's security, leaving management of the economy to a handful of Sunni, Christian and Druze officials and merchants. But the arrangement was by no means perfect and would have collapsed in the early 1980s had Assad not put down a Muslim Brotherhood uprising in the city of Hama. Memories of this event still loom heavily in the minds of many Syrians today.

The accession to power of President Bashar Assad in June 2000 threatened to dissolve this arrangement. Under the new leadership, the regime's main props narrowed to a clique centered on the president, his immediate family members and close friends. If the old arrangement was imperfect, its dissolution at the hands of the "new guard" was even worse. For the ruling elite did not offer any new vision for Syria's future. Transparency, reform, modernization and development were words often used by Assad and his advisers, but, for the most part, they remained just that: words. No programs, policies or action plans were offered.

As later developments would show, this fact seemed to denote not only a lack of interest in such matters on the art of the new guard, but, more importantly, a lack of real understanding of the basics of governance and of the nature of the global geopolitical changes that took place following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Syria's old patron. As a result, the history of the last five years has been characterized by endemic corruption,

adventurism and serious miscalculations paving the way for the regime's current international isolation.

Indeed, under the current regime, Syria seems to be heading toward disaster, a point recently highlighted by Assad's petulant defiance of the international community and his refusal to cooperate with the ongoing UN probe into the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. But this is not surprising: a witness seems to have already implicated the president's brother and brother-in-law, and this fact could well point the finger at the very top of Syria's leadership.

It is safe to say, therefore, that in these circumstances, the Syrian regime is no longer really viable, and that a search for an alternative is now not only legitimate, but mandatory as well in order to preserve regional stability and prevent the creation of another haven for jihadists and terrorists.

However, and since no one can rationally advocate recourse to another militaristic venture in the region, the downfall of the Syrian regime is better induced through a combination of diplomatic pressures, targeted economic sanctions and various activities and gestures meant to empower the internal opposition in the country and perhaps also the growing disaffection within the middle ranks of the army.

On the other hand, now that Syria's leadership seems to have opted for a confrontation with the international community, a case for the use of force against the regime can no longer be completely ruled out. In fact, the latest UN Security Council resolution on Syria, Resolution 1636, was passed under Chapter 7 of the UN Charter, which allows for forceful measures.

While we should all hope not to witness the making of another Iraq, the Bush administration needs to continue to follow a multilateral approach and coordinate its moves with France, Europe and the Security Council. Unilateral moves will only stoke anti-American sentiment, a development that Assad and his entourage seem to be counting on in order to shore themselves up and focus the Syrian people's attention away from the fact that the regime is ultimately responsible for the current crisis threatening the stability, if not the viability, of the country.

Ammar Abdulhamid is a Syrian dissident and blogger. He is currently serving as a visiting fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution in Washington. He wrote this commentary for THE DAILY STAR.
[end]

Hassan Tahsin, writing in "Arab News," claims there is a Hidden Agenda Behind US Interest in Hariri Murder

In brief the Western attacks in the Middle East are neither for the sake of fighting terror nor for imposing democracy. It is in fact to enrich the American economy and ensure cheap and uninterrupted fuel supply, particularly after China has notched up to the second position among the world powers. A weakened Iraq and Syria would also guarantee the security of Israel.

Therefore it is the duty of all peace-loving people of the world to back Syria against a US-French war of aggression.

Al-Hayat argues that Syria must not allow its economy to become isolated in The Syrian Economy in the Political Climate of the Middle East Region

SANA, the Syrian news agency claims "that a number of economic measures and decisions will be soon issued to facilitate foreign trade and to expand in financing it."

Issam al-Za'im, past Minister of Planning (2000) and Minister of Industry in the Miro government, gave a talk in Homs in which he voiced optimism that Syria would be able to surmount its economic challenges as she had done many times before noting importance of the social economic market in this respect. He said Syria has faced many economic and political challenges in the past years mainly in the 80s of last century but she was always capable of confronting and facing it by depending on her national economy and being self-suficient. Today, however, he argued for the merits of the newly announced "social economic market," saying that Syria was seeking by this system to achieve many positive advances, such as the integration into the world economy, and the enhancement of its national production so as to compete in the international markets and boost the national economy. He said Syria could make an increase in the Gross Domestic Production DGDP reaching to about 7% which is the percentage put by the government for the coming phase. He noted that this would be made through controlling population growth and restructuring the law of investment number 10 in a way that contributes to estblish investors confidence.

Syria says 400 Mossad agents in Lebanon

Syria's official Al-Thawra newspaper claimed Thursday that more than 400 agents from Israel's spy agency Mossad are in Lebanon in the latest volley in an increasingly vitriolic war of words with Lebanon's new leaders. "You have to recognize the danger of having more than 400 men from Israel's Mossad in Lebanon who are working with the other (Lebanese) agents who once supported the Zionist enemy and its militias," wrote editor Fayez Sayegh. "These agents are encircling Lebanon like a belt that will explode when Israel and its strategic ally the United States decide," he said, charging there was also an increasing number of agents from the CIA and European states in the country.

"All these agents came to Lebanon... to sow dissent, revive hatred, reinforce pressure on Lebanon and Syria and above all spy on national forces, the Lebanese resistance and Palestinians," said the paper.

Syria's state run Tishrin newspaper and the Baath newspaper had tried to stir up strife in Lebanon earlier this month, when they ran editorials calling on its allies to hold demonstrations in Lebanon against Premier Fouad Siniora's government and the economic situation in Lebanon. The call was widely dubbed by the local media as a flagrant intervention in Lebanon's domestic affairs in defiance of unrelenting global pressure on the regime of President Bashar Al Assad to take its hands off Lebanon. No demonstrations took place and no political group in Lebanon announced any plans to demonstrate.

Ex-Lebanese Security Head Quizzed in Death , by By ZEINA KARAM, BEIRUT, Lebanon (AP)

The former head of the wiretapping unit for Lebanon's army, Col. Ghassan Tufeili, was questioned Thursday by members of a United Nations commission investigating the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, officials said.

Syria must answer Mehlis Tomorrow about sending the 6 to Vienna

Ibrahim Hamidi writes that "Mehlis is expecting Syria`s answer to question 6 people in Vienna before 25th, which means tomorrow is the deadline. That is why many Arab leaders have been contacting Damascus in the last few days. Please see the link."

Cham Press translates an article from al-Khaleej which quotes Syrian sources as saying that:

According to sources, the Syrian self-reliance regarding food, power and a large number of transformed industries will enable Syria to curb the American schemes."It is clear that the Syrian policy which depends on steadfastness and flexibility did not reach a dead lock, on the contrary it is a fruitful policy as Mehlis accepted to interrogate the Syrian officials in a place the Syrian governments approved.

Furthermore, President Al-Assad's speech was absolutely defined Syria's choices and put the Lebanese forces (of Arab trend) to meet its duties and also Arab countries and the world", Sources added. Sources believed that Damascus's openness to the most influential capitals in the world has resulted in changing the attitudes of Mehlis who fears any confrontation with the UN General Secretariat. Sources said that Mehlis's retreat to interrogate Syrian witnesses in Beirut as a big blow Washington received.

Contrasting Hamidi's story about how Asad has received calls or visits from Egypt, Jordan, Sudan and others to respond positively to Mehlis by tomorrow, with that of al-Khaleej, which suggests Syrian officials believe they are undermining UN resolve and are ready to endure sanctions, it is clear we have a classic stand-off. Will Syria take Vienna? I am not putting money on it, but it has backed down before. Asad's message about resistance was clear. We will see.

Nibras Kazimi has a new blog in which he suggests that Syria may not be responsible for killing Hariri. He does this by dissecting the testimony of the second witness against Syria, who has been named ‘the masked witness’; now allegedly identified by New TV as ‘Hosam Taher Hosam.’ This is not Saddiqi. "Mr. Hosam is a Syrian Kurd, born in 1975 in Tel Al-Hefzeiz in the Hasaka Province, Syria. His mother’s name is Zainab Hassan, and his employer is supposedly ‘Syrian Intelligence.’ He claims to have worked directly under people like Assef Shawkat and Rustum Ghazaleh."

Syria Seeks to Limit U.N. Inquiry in Killing
By Irwin Arieff

UNITED NATIONS, Nov. 23 (Reuters) - Syria wants the United Nations investigators looking into the killing of Lebanon's former prime minister to agree to question witnesses and suspects only inside Syria, and with their lawyers present, according to a draft agreement put forward by Syria.

According to the draft, which was obtained by Reuters on Wednesday, the chief United Nations investigator, Detlev Mehlis, would be required to share his findings with Syrian investigators.

Syria denies any role in the killing.

Mr. Mehlis and members of the United Nations Security Council, which authorized him to investigate the assassination of the former prime minister, Rafik al-Hariri, in Beirut, have made it clear that such restrictions would be unacceptable.

In a letter the Syrian foreign minister, Farouk al-Sharaa, asked Secretary General Kofi Annan to intervene with Mr. Mehlis and help negotiate a "cooperation protocol." A United Nations spokesman said Mr. Annan would not get involved.

In an interim report last month, Mr. Mehlis said he had evidence of the involvement of Syrian and Lebanese officials in Mr. Hariri's killing.

Israel: Syria will 'likely' give up "terror"

Israeli Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz told cabinet colleagues Sunday that Syria would "likely" soon be forced to abandon its support for terrorism. Mofaz told the weekly meeting of the Israeli cabinet that the broad international pressure on Syrian President Bashar Assad, following allegations that officials of his government were implicated in the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri, was beginning to bear fruit."

Mofaz said that it is likely that the pressure being applied on Assad will lead him to abandon terror and evict terror headquarters from Damascus," reported the Ha'aretz newspaper from Jerusalem. "He regarded this as a positive development for Israel," the paper concluded. The Syrian government denies it is a supporter of terrorism, and says the offices that Palestinian and Lebanese militant groups have in Damascus have purely propaganda and fundraising functions, not terrorist ones.

The U.S. government has a patchy relationship with Syria on terrorism issues. On the one hand, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld has repeatedly said that Syria is -- at the least -- not doing enough to prevent the infiltration of foreign fighters across its borders into Iraq. Some defense officials privately accuse Assad's security apparatus of harboring senior regime figures and facilitating their insurgency in Iraq. But some intelligence officials say that, behind the scenes, Syrian security has been cooperative against Islamic terror networks. UPI

Al-Baath to give up 500,000 members

Reliable sources said that the Regional Leadership of the Baath Party has taken decisions to re-format the party which suffers from being flabby. The measures aim to adopt a genuine political party formula. One of the decisions provided for reducing members of party branches leadership in governorates and universities from ten to five. Sources expected that the issues of elderly members who do not attend party meetings, who are estimated at half a million, will be tackled.

New American law against Syria

On Tuesday, November 22, 2005, the President signed into law:
S. 1713, the "Iran Nonproliferation Amendments Act of 2005," which amends the Iran Nonproliferation Act of 2000 to apply its provisions to Syria; broadens the Act to cover acquisitions from as well as transfers to Iran and Syria.

US pressures Syria to act over Iraq border

James Jeffrey, senior coordinator for Iraq, also warned Iran against its "illegitimate interference" in its war-torn neighbour. "Syria is a police state. We don't like that, we don't approve of that but it is a fact," James Jeffrey told reporters in Jordan in a videoconference from Washington. "They have the means of controlling the transfer of particularly foreigners into their country and the vast majority of foreign fighters are not Syrians but come from elsewhere."

"We don't know why they are not stopping it but we expect results," he said, adding that a "large majority" of suicide bombers who launch attacks in Iraq come from Syria. "One can argue to what degree Syria is encouraging such moves, assisting it, simply tolerating it by not doing enough to stop it," he added.

Asked what practical steps Syria should take, Jeffrey suggested imposing strict visa controls on young males entering the country. "That would be a first step." Jeffrey dismissed suggestions that direct dialogue with the Syrian authorities would resolve the problem, saying: "They don't need dialogue, they need to produce action."

Can the US and Syria Work Together in Iraq?

Common US and Syrian Goals in Iraq
Iyad Allawi, the ex-Prime Minister of Iraq, who was backed by the Americans in the last Iraqi elections is campaigning in Syria among Iraqi exiles here. I have been asked to meet with his campaigners and write about his platform by some of his supporters. (I don't have time to do this, but some reporter should.) But, it is worth mentioning, that Allawi has the support of the Syrian government. This is not surprising because he represents the best hope of secular Sunni Iraqis to form an alliance with secular Shiites and preserve the unity of Iraq. It is also worth noting that Allawi is also heavily supported by the US government for the same reasons. This should give pause to the people who claim that the US and Syria are working at cross purposes in Iraq and who insist that Washington should refuse Syria any role in helping to find a solution to the Iraqi situation. (This is the stand of WINEP. Robert Rabil recently wrote for the Washington Institute that the US should deny Syria a role in Iraq because it is a bad country.) This is foolish politics and ensures that US demands for Syrian cooperation at the border will not be carried out as enthusiastically as possible. Both governments support Imad Allawi for the same strategic reasons. Both Syria and the US want a stable, unified, and secular Iraq. Both have an interest in limiting the role of Iran in Iraq. Syrian Sunnis from the north-eastern tribes have taken up Allawi's cause here. They believe he is the only salvation of their Sunni cousins in Iraq. Both Syria and the US are trying to buy the Iraqi Sunnis into the political process in Iraq in order to find a way out of the escalating sectarian violence and to put an end to the resistance and terrorism.

Why can't Washington be smart about this? It has consistently refused Syrian cooperation in Iraq. It has refused to allow Syrians delegations to attend conferences on border control. It has refused to supply Syria with much needed night-vision goggles and other high-tech equipment to help survey the border. It has kept the Iraqi government from establishing links and dialog with the Syrians. It has rebuffed Syrian attempts to keep intelligence sharing on Iraq and fundamentalists open at high levels. It has refused to permission of high-level American military representatives to come to Syria to confer with their counterparts here on border issues. America's attempts to isolate Syria have undermined intelligent Iraq policy.

Lebanon's supporters in the US and neo-cons have blinded themselves to the possibility of Syrian cooperation in Iraq. Some of this is understandable. Syria did encourage Jihadists to go to Iraq during the first months of the war. All the same, Syria is now cooperating with the US because the US has declared its intention to eventually leave Iraq, a process Syria hopes to hasten. Syria is also rightfully worried about Iraqi blowback should the resistance continue. The Jordan bombings were a clear demonstration of this danger to all Iraq's neighbors. Lebanese are rightfully fearful that should the US open the door to Syrian cooperation in Iraq, Damascus will try to use their assistance and positive role in the East to buy continued lenience for meddling in Lebanon and foot dragging over the Mehlis investigation. These are understandable fears, but Washington should not let their Iraq policy be driven by Lebanese interests. Washington can separate its Lebanon policy from its Iraq policy, making it clear to Damascus that help in Iraq does not mean a license to fiddle in Lebanon. To those who insist that “pressure works” and only pressure will get the attention of Damascus, let them continue to use pressure. There is no law that pressure and dialog cannot be used together.

It is now clear that the US is not going to achieve regime-change in Syria – even the kind of cheap regime-change of the Qaddafi-deal variety. So long as the “isolate Syria” supporters could hope for dramatic success in getting Syria to make a strategic pirouette by refusing all dialog with Damascus, there was some justification for not cooperating on the Iraq border even though Syria was willing to. Today, that refusal is just stubbornness and short sighted. It may be costing US and Iraqi lives. It certainly means US efforts to increase dialog between Iraqi Shiites and Sunnis is firing without all its pistons. The US should enlist Syria to play a constructive role in this effort. Iraq’s Kurdish President is keen on bringing the Syrians into the picture and enlisting their support. He has asked the government to stop anti-Syrian propaganda. Allawi is also campaigning for Syria’s help. These are America’s two closest Iraqi allies. Why not listen to them, rather than clip their wings? Use Syria to counterbalance Iran. Refusal to do this only forces Syria and Iran together. It makes western fears of a Shiite crescent in the region self-fulfilling. Syria is an overwhelmingly Sunni country. Although Bashar al-Asad is an Alawite and thus technically closer to Shi`i than Sunni Islam, he is above all secular and interested in preserving his regime and Syria’s position in the region. Harnessing these interests to US goals should be a priority.
[end]

Addendum: Just received this from a reader:

Josh,
Just read your latest posts. Poor Ziad Abdelnour. Got everything he ever wanted, but had nothing to do with it. He must have gone clinically insane. Is that interview for real?

As for Iyad Allawi, I don't pretend to be an expert on Iraqi politics, but I can tell you the election results from Iraqis who voted in the US in the first post-Hussein election:

1) Shiite alliance
2) Kurd alliance
3) Assyrian parties
4) COMMUNISTS
5) Allawi's ticket

So even Iraqis living in the world's premier capitalist society had more confidence in communists than Allawi. Not exactly a stellar showing. Is he still running alongside Ghazi al-Yawer, who wears a dishdasha and kuffiya in Iraq but comes to DC and brags about how much he loves the Washington Redskins? Street creds, anyone?

Here is a list of the people, compiled by "Shril" who are on trial in front of Syrian State Security Court this period. One can see that most are accused of belonging to Islamist groups or the Iraqi Baath. This is consistent with Damascus' declaration that it is worried about Iraqi-style violence spreading into Syria and the government's declared aim of helping the Iraq government stop Jihadist infiltration and the violent resistance in Iraq.


4 December
Name Accusation
Omar Darwish Coming back from exile in Iraq- charged of Belonging to Islamic brother hood
Radwan Darwish Coming back from exile in Iraq- charged of Belonging to Islamic brother hood
Muhammad Raadon Human rights activist

11 December
Jamel Hallol Islamic background
Khalid Alraaee Islamic background
Mahmoud Abo Mayalah Islamic background
Ahmad Omar Islamic background

18 December
Mahmod al-kateeb Coming back from exile in Iraq- charged of Belonging to" bath al-yameen"
Ahmad al-kateeb Coming back from exile in Iraq- charged of Belonging to" bath al-yameen"
Abdel majeed kayrawan Belonging to" bath al-yameen"
Muhammad Mahmoud Qasem Islamic background (Detained in 13-2-2005)Yalda "countryside" of Damascus

11 prisoners from al-qamishli Islamic background
Abdel sattar qattan Accused of relation with Islamic brotherhood

15 January 2006
prisoners from al-tal area
"Baraa Mania"- "Ghassan al-khateen" – shaher al-zarqa"- "Murad al-zarqa" "Asem Basheer" Islamic background

seven prisoners from Al-Tal aria (countryside of Damascus Charged with belonging to al-wahabia al-takferia

5 February 2006
Nizar Rastanawi Human rights activist
Abdelrahman alsharef Islamic background- Detained in February 2004
Osamah Cash Islamic background- Detained in August 2003
[end]

The arrest of opposition member Kamal Al Labwani at the Damascus International Airport - more info from the Syria Human Rights Information Link.

Syrian opposition member Kamal Lubwani was arrested during his return from Washington and meetings with a number of American officials at The White House, National Security, and American Foreign Affairs. The arrest took place during his exit from Damascus International Airport and at the hands of officers from the civilian police, one of whom is ranked a major, while his wife was preparing to meet him.

Al Lubwani traveled to London a little over two months ago to make an exhibition for the pictures that he drew during his imprisonment on the basis of what has been called “Damascus spring”. After that he traveled to Brussels and met with officials at the European Union; then he moved on to Washington where he did not reach an agreement with The Reform Party leader Farid Al Ghadari. He announced that he is with The Syrian National Council (Al Majlis Al Watani Al Suri) and signed a joint declaration with Doctor Najeeb Ghadban and Al Diri, and told thousands from Washington that he met with American officials for the purpose of discussing change from within and without a repeat of the Iraq scenario, as well as that he discussed the Damascus Declaration for National Democratic change. However, a number of the Syrian opposition members who signed the Damascus Declaration said that Al Lubwani was not present during the preliminary negotiations of the declaration.

The Transfer of Al Lubwani to the examining magistrate
During his questioning in front of the examining magistrate in Damascus, Doctor Kamal Al Lubwani rewiewed the positions that were declared during the interview he gave with Al Hurra satellite television, the substance being:

- emphasis on the absolute rejection of any military or economic pressure on Syria and the absolute rejection of violence.
- emphasis on transparency, clarity, and the rejection of clandestine efforts, along with condemning the bias in political rhetoric.
- emphasis on democracy and support for human rights organizations and basic freedoms, especially the right to participate and produce an opinion, as well as all of the civil and political rights.

The office of the prosecutor general rested its case on the accusations of weakening the psyche of the nation, weakening national consciousness, threatening national dignity, kindling the fires of sectarianism, and belonging to a clandestine organization; its case is based on his opinions and ideas, whether those that he expressed openly and transparently or those that he preserved for himself on his own private slips of paper, and the charges rest on articles 285-287 and 307-308 of the Syrian penal code.

The defense team learned that Doctor Al Lubwani has been exposed since his arrest to the worst detention circumstances which drove him to request the prosecution of the head of the branch of political investigation who slapped him in the face.

The defense team stresses that Doctor Lubwani’s preventive detention has lost its legal justification because all of the requested evidence is present in the file and there is no fear of its loss or destruction, just as there is no fear of the accused taking flight considering he is the one who showed up and returned to the homeland having faith in the integrity and justice of his cause. This detention gives the impression of a punishment or an advance on its settlement and is contrary to the constitutional and legal principle based on that the accused possesses the presumption of innocence until a final ratified judgment concerning him or her is issued.

Shril also describes the:

Prevention of the gathering of The Council of the Damascus Declaration
The Syrian Committee for Human Rights (London) disapproved of the audacity of the Syrian security authorities in preventing the convening of the meeting of the temporary council for the Damascus declaration; an action which was carried out on the evening of Sunday, November 11, 2005, by barring the entrance of the building in which the meeting was chosen to convene by means of a ma