What is Behind Recent US Threats Against Syria?

Recent headlines describe how US officials hope to keep the pressure on Syria. Both John Bolton, the controversial new US ambassador to the UN, and Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld continue to warn Syria that it better revamp its security system to arrest and prosecute militants passing through the country. They implicitly threaten that Washington will place further economic sanctions on Syria or, perhaps even, strike out militarily against it with a cross border or bombing raid of some kind. Any sort of one-off punitive action would be counter-productive. It would only bolster Bashar’s popularity, much as the Ras al-Shaykh bombing in Egypt boosted Mubarak’s popularity in Egypt. The State Department, however, is suggesting a softer line and cooperation with Europe rather than unilateral American action.

Bolton Says Iran, Syria Failing to Stop Militants
Los Angeles Times - CA,USA
John R. Bolton, the new US ambassador to the United Nations, accused Syria and Iran of not doing enough to stop foreigners from joining the insurgency in Iraq.

Rumsfeld says Syria 'not behaving in wise manner' - US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said: "The United States and the world obviously has to create a better clarity in the minds of leaders of Syria that what they are doing is harmful ultimately to themselves," Rumsfeld said after a speech in Beverly Hills at which he was twice heckled.

Rumsfeld said he was referring to Syria's refusal to return Iraqi funds, housing of Baathists from Saddam Hussein's fallen regime and the flow of insurgents across the border. He said Syria was also "undoubtedly financing" some of the Iraqi insurgency.

Several means of upping the pressure on Syria have found backers in Washington. One most often hears of sanctioning the Commercial Bank of Syria, which is accused of laundering Saddam's money, and sanctioning oil. This article below by Peter Schweizer in USA Today recommends crushing Syria's oil industry. Syria's economy has already been staggered by America's invasion of Iraq. The government recently announced that the estimate of Syria's 2004 GNP growth rate had fallen to 2%. 2003 has been estimated at around 2.5%, which was down from 2002's rate of almost 4% due to the war. Thus the real growth rate in Syria is actually negative because population growth is around 2.7%.

The US can ensure that the Asad regime fails by enacting such draconian measures and that Syrians are impoverished as have been their Iraqi neighbors.

Will America gain anything from this squeeze play other than to spread chaos, anger, and poverty throughout the Arab world? I suppose it will have the satisfaction of revenge. It won't stop terrorism, though - that seems fairly certain. The whole rational for Washington's invasion of Iraq was to jumpstart good governance and economic growth in the region in order to dry up the swamp of Arab frustration that provides a breeding ground for terrorist groups.

The present and proposed sanctions on Syria are working in the exact opposite direction. Their most likely outcome will not be to reduce terrorism, but to produce a second failed state in the region - or third, if we count Palestine.

Time to tighten the noose on Syria
By Peter Schweizer

As the ground war continues in Iraq, there has been plenty of discussion about the training of the Iraqi army, a timetable for U.S. troops leaving and the domestic security situation in the country. But what happens next door in Syria could determine Iraq's future.

Gen. George Casey, the U.S. commander in Iraq, has already gone on record declaring that insurgents are "operating out of Syria with impunity," providing both financial support and guidance. More recently, the U.S. Treasury Department linked four of Saddam Hussein's nephews, who are operating out of Syria, to the insurgency.

Iraqi Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari has urged the Bush administration to increase pressure on Syria. In recent months, U.S. troops have been operating near the Iraq-Syria border in an effort to hit terrorist bases of operation.

Importance of bases

It is impossible to know at this point how important Syria is to the health and welfare of the terrorists operating in Iraq. History teaches us that external bases from which to operate have always been vital. Material from the Soviet archives shows that sanctuaries in "neutral" Cambodia and Laos were vital for the North Vietnamese. During the 1980s, Pakistan provided a key base of operations for Afghans fighting the Soviet occupation. At a minimum, Syria provides a convenient place for terrorist cells to form, get funding and supplies, and rest after conducting their attacks.

The Bush administration has taken some steps to turn up the pressure on Damascus. It has frozen the overseas assets of senior military and intelligence officials and imposed economic sanctions. But these measures don't go far enough. Consider the vital Syrian oil and gas sector. Energy production represents 50% of the country's total budget income and 70% of total exports. Plenty of American oil companies help keep the Syrian energy sector working: ConocoPhillips, Chevron Texaco and U.S. Occidental all provide critical expertise and parts to the Syrians.

President Bush's sanctions, while helpful, are not effective. All of these companies can still invest in the Syrian energy sector; they just need to contract with non-American suppliers for replacement parts and personnel.

Also, there are plenty of European and Asian countries that help prop up Syria's energy sector. Syrian energy production is already down, even with this external support. Without it, the Syrian energy sector would probably collapse.

But how do we tighten the noose? President Reagan faced a similar problem in 1982. Determined to prevent the construction of a natural gas pipeline from the communist-controlled East into Western Europe, he imposed sanctions against any U.S. oil companies participating in the project. Almost overnight, he was undermined by European allies who circumvented the sanctions and allowed their own energy companies to replace U.S. contractors.

Reagan didn't budge

Reagan's response? He applied portions of the Export Control Act and announced that he was extending the sanctions to include any foreign companies that were using U.S.-licensed technology. If, for example, a French company used U.S.-licensed technologies on the pipeline, that company could not sell in the U.S. market.

European leaders were outraged, and a compromise followed. In exchange for backing down, Reagan got the Europeans to commit to tightening loans, dramatically reducing the size of the natural gas projects and tightening controls on technology exports.

If our European allies fail to support a tighter squeeze on Syria, President Bush should consider a similar move. Syria needs international technological and management support to keep its energy sector going. And no international energy company is going to risk exclusion from the U.S. market in exchange for a contract with the Syrian government.

There are other levers that we should also be prepared to pull. The so-called Arab Gas Pipeline will bring huge quantities of natural gas to Syria when it is completed in the next few years. There are also large petrochemical projects, such as one just completed south of Damascus. These projects rely on funding from international banking institutions, as well as the International Finance Corporation (an offshoot of the World Bank). They are critical for the economic health of Syria. The Bush administration should lean heavily on international financial bodies that are doing business with Syria (and are funded in part with U.S. taxpayer dollars).

Syria has the capability to seriously weaken terrorist groups operating in Iraq. The question is, does it have the will to do so?

Damascus has no interest in seeing a stable, democratic Iraq next door. Success would mean the end of dictatorial rule in Damascus. Only by facing the prospect of economic collapse, brought on by massive American pressure, will Syria be motivated to do the right thing.

So long as groups finding refuge in Syria are killing U.S. soldiers, that country should not receive any economic support from the West.

Peter Schweizer is a research fellow at the Hoover Institution and author of the forthcoming book Do as I Say (Not as I Do).

Condoleezza Rice seems to disagree with Rumsfeld and Bolton. She is trying to fight back the idea of further immediate moves against Syria. In a recent interview with Robin Wright of the Washington Post, the Secretary of State was very measured and non-committal about what might be done to Syria. She argued that pushing Syria out of Lebanon was enough Syria bashing for the time being and should satisfy Syria's enemies. She did not suggest taking further measures against Asad in the immediate future. Here is how an-Nahar wrote up her interview:

U.S. Proclaims Itself Guarantor of Lebanon's Sovereignty
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has effectively proclaimed the United States a guarantor of Lebanon's sovereignty, charging that Syria was still 'trying to influence events in unseemly ways.'
"The first thing that we've done is to, together with France, mobilize international opinion so that the Syrians had to get out of Lebanon," Rice said in an interview carried by The Washington Post On Sunday, The interview was reproduced by An Nahar on Tuesday.

"There is no doubt that the Syrians continue to try to influence events in Lebanon in ways that are unseemly, including, I think, the pressure that they're putting on the Lebanese on the border," Rice said well before Syria had ended its trade blockade in the wake of Premier Seniora's talks with Syrian leaders in Damascus.

"We are going to continue to work with the international community to convince the Syrians that this is not an acceptable course," she said, asserting that the Syrian behavior "is hurting the Palestinians, hurting the Iraqis and hurting the Lebanese, and that they're out of step with what's going on in the international system."

'But is there a moment in which you say, "Enough" if the Syrians fail to comply?' Interviewer Robin Wright, a veteran Middle East specialist, asked.

"Well, I think it's not a small accomplishment that Syrian forces are out of Lebanon," Rice responded. "Let's remember that, again, a lot has happened in the period of time since the Hariri assassination. And Syrian forces are out of Lebanon and there is a new government in Lebanon.

"And now, the next step is to make certain that the Syrians respect Lebanese sovereignty, and so we'll work on that step. But when you say, 'Are you going to do something,' well, I think Syrian forces out of Lebanon is a good thing," Rice said.

An Nahar splashed that quote under a page-one headline that hollered: "Rice, We shall guarantee Lebanon's sovereignty."

"You now believe that all intelligence and military forces are out?" Wright asked. "No, I don't. But I do believe that Syrian military forces are out of Lebanon. There's a verification team that will tell us what other elements that might be there. We still await the investigation into the assassination of Prime Minister Hariri. So there are a number of steps."

"Which will probably be out soon, isn't it?" Rice was asked. "Fairly soon, but I don't have a date in mind. We don't have a date that we've been given yet," she responded.

If we read the tea leaves in Rice's interview, she is taking a softer line that Rumsfeld. She wants to work with the European Community to put pressure on Syria to make sure Syria withdraws its intelligence from Lebanon. She said nothing about unilateral American sanctions, which the Europeans will frown on. It seems quite clear, at least to this observer, that whatever intelligence agents Syria may have kept behind in Lebanon, they are not and will not be able to change the policies of the new Lebanese government. Syria used its economic might to pressure Siniora and Hariri, not its intelligence agents. It had to close the border to get action from Lebanon. I think the left-behind-intelligence-agents argument is a Red Haring.

Syria rejects US blame for Iraq's unrestXinhua, China - 7 hours agoDAMASCUS, Aug. 6 (Xinhuanet) -- Syria on Saturday rejected the US charges that it was responsible for the unrest in the war-torn Iraq. ...

Meanwhile, Syria is trying to keep itself from being islolated economically. One move to foster better economic relations with its neighbors is the ratification of the trade agreement with Jordan.

The Syrian government has ratified a free trade agreement signed with Jordan.

The deal is meant to develop economic cooperation and increase bilateral trade between the two countries. More then 1,500 companies operate in Syria's free trade zone and - trade, import and export included - in the first six months of 2005 it reached 350 million euro, while in 2004 investments attracted one billion 700 million euro.

Syria Muslim Brotherhood for all-out change
Science Daily (press release) - USA... June 15, 2005) -- An exiled Syrian opposition leader is visiting Iraq to discuss cooperation with the Iraqi government in combating the Baath regime in Syria. ...

Syria, Lebanon discuss supplying Lebanon with electricity
Arabic News - Syria and Lebanon are to discuss supplying Lebanon with electricity according to a singed accord between the two states, Secretary General of the Syrian ...

Seniora Speaks Out as U.N. Coerces Beirut to Begin Hizbullah's Disarmament Dialogue
Premier Seniora says his recent talks with President Assad have rebased relations between Lebanon and Syria on a foundation of 'equality and mutual respect,' emphatically denying that they tackled the idea of a face-to-face meeting between the Syrian President and Saad Hariri, the majority leader of Lebanon's first Syria-free parliament....

Syria Seemingly Reactivates Trade War Against Lebanon
Annahar, Beirut, Updated 07 Aug 05,
Syria seems to have resumed its trade war against Lebanon, re-shutting the central border crossing for Lebanese cargo trucks anew amid reports that the Assad regime contends that Premier Seniora was procrastinating on commitments he had given during his visit to Damascus a week ago.

The Masnaa-Jdeidet Yabous crossing on the eastern border was re-closed by Syrian authorities at midday Saturday, hardly a week after it was reopened to normal traffic following Seniora's talks with President Assad and Syrian Prime Minister Mohammed Naji Otari in Damascus last Sunday, An Nahar reported on Sunday.Long queues of stranded trucks formed up anew at the Masnaa border checkpoint in east Lebanon's Bekaa Valley while the Abboudieh-Dabboussieh passageway in northern-most Lebanon remained completely shuttered for a fifth straight week Sunday.

Some 700 transit trade trucks are stranded in the north."Back to square one," commented the F-TV Beirut network. But its newspaper sister Al Mustaqbal said Seniora was convinced that the re-closure of the Bekaa crossing was a temporary result of 'administrative bureaucracy bereft from any political backdrop."Seniora has dispatched Lebanese military officers for talks with Syrian authorities on the border to "arrange for a quick termination of the renewed crisis," Al Mustaqbal said.

Syria to modernize jails
Arabic News - Syria is serious in her efforts to modernize jails and make them vocational and educational centers, Minister of Justice said Thursday. ...